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《工程(英文)》 >> 2016年 第2卷 第3期 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2016.03.005

大坝风险分析的计算方法:进展和挑战

a Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia 46022, Spain
b Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico—RSE SpA, Milan 20134, Italy
c iPresas Risk Analysis, Valencia 46023, Spain

发布日期: 2016-09-26

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摘要

近年来,风险分析技术日渐成为大坝安全管理的有效工具。本文系统总结了由国际大坝委员会大坝分析和设计计算专家委员会主办的基准研讨会中与大坝风险分析主题相关的三方面研究成果。2011 年,基准研讨会讨论了估算重力坝滑动破坏模式下的溃坝概率等问题;2013 年,会议讨论了大坝风险分析中后果评估在计算方面所面临的挑战;2015 年,会议对土石坝滑动和漫顶破坏的概率进行了分析。从这三次会议关于大坝风险分析数值计算的研究进展可以发现,对于大坝系统的风险分析,包括下游后果评价以及结构模型的不确定性,风险分析方法都是非常有用的工具。

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