2016年 第2卷 第3期
《工程（英文）》 >> 2016年 第2卷 第3期 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2016.03.019
基于模糊时间知识推理的高速铁路列车运行图冲突预测
a School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China
b China Railway Corporation, Beijing 100844, China
c National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China
d Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo N2L 3G1, Canada
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摘要
列车在运行过程中，由于受到系统内外的干扰，容易发生晚点并偏离计划列车运行线，而晚点传播将进一步扩大运行干扰的影响，造成后续列车潜在的运行冲突，这些冲突可能影响后续列车运行计划的安排。因此，可靠的冲突预测结果能够更好地辅助当前运行调整策略的制定，提高运行图实施效果。相比于既有研究中基于随机干扰的冲突预测方法，本文基于历史运营数据对计划列车运行图中的时间区间进行模糊化处理，并基于赋时Petri 网建立高速铁路列车运行图模型。为了全面度量冲突预测结果，本文将冲突划分为确定冲突和潜在冲突并给出判定标准。同时提出了单列车运行线平均偏离度和相邻列车作业间的冲突可能性两个冲突评价指标，并给出了计算方法。基于调整后的模糊时间知识推理算法，本文提出了一种新的高速铁路列车运行冲突预测方法，应用于两个不同情境下的仿真算例中。仿真算例结果表明，列车运行图内时间区间模糊化处理后的冲突预测在可靠性和可操作性方面更强，并可为列车运行图调整、优化等提供决策支持。
本文已出勘误，详见
He Zhuang,Liping Feng,Chao Wen, et al. Corrigendum to “High-Speed Railway Train Timetable Conflict Prediction Based on Fuzzy Temporal Knowledge Reasoning” [Engineering (2016) 366–373][J]. Engineering, 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.01.002
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