2017年 第3卷 第2期
《工程（英文）》 >> 2017年 第3卷 第2期 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.01.022
全球2℃温升目标与应对气候变化长期目标的演进
a Department of Science & Technology and Climate Change, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
b Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China
c National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC), Beijing 100038, China
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摘要
《巴黎协定》提出把全球平均地表气温升幅控制在较工业化前水平的2°C 之内，并努力限制在1.5°C之内。这是第一个使“全球2°C 温升目标”具备法律效力的国际条约，《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二条关于最终目标的定性表述，至此演进为《巴黎协定》第二条包含具体数值的全球温升目标。从政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 第二次评估开始，为《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判提供有助于确定定量化长期目标的科学信息就成为后续历次评估的重要任务，但由于涉及非科学评估范畴的价值判断，IPCC 从未从科学上认定全球升温到何种程度是不可接受的。应对气候变化长期目标的确定经历了长期的过程，“全球2°C 温升目标”是建立在科学评估基础上的一个政治共识。本文从“全球2°C 温升目标”的由来、IPCC 围绕《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二条开展的系列评估，以及不同政治层面对温升目标的推动等几个方面，分析了国际应对气候变化长期目标的演进过程，及其对未来科学评估、谈判进程和全球低碳发展走向的影响。
关键词
气候变化 ; 国际谈判 ; 政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) ; 《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC) ; 长期目标 ; 关键脆弱性 ; 制度建设
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