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《工程(英文)》 >> 2018年 第4卷 第1期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2018.02.002

河口三角洲系统海平面上升行为甄别研究——以上海海岸为例

a State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
b Shanghai Water Planning Design and Research Institute, Shanghai 200232, China
c Shanghai Water Authority, Shanghai 200050, China
d School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
e School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
f Shanghai Hydrological Station, Shanghai 200232, China
g Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Urban Planning and Land Resources, Shanghai 200003, China
h Shanghai Institute of Geological Survey, Shanghai 200072, China

收稿日期: 2017-07-01 修回日期: 2017-12-10 录用日期: 2017-12-26 发布日期: 2018-02-12

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摘要

气候变化导致海平面上升是河口三角洲城市发展面临的主要威胁,位处长江河口三角洲的特大型城市上海面临同样的问题。就气候变化适应性决策者而言,其困难在于海平面上升的原因、幅度和出现时间的不确定性。本文在年代际尺度上就海平面上升原因、幅度的甄别做了尝试。即在分析上海沿岸11 个潮位站1921 年以来潮位记录及其相邻水域水下地形基础上,发现该地区海平面上升除了众所周知的理论海平面上升、构造沉降和城市地面沉降外,还有三种新的、人为地形改变所致的海平面上升行为。其一为围垦和深水航道整治导致的局域海平面上升;其二是流域沉积物源减少引起河槽冲刷导致的局域海平面下降;其三为局域深度基准面抬升。上海沿岸2011—2030年间海平面上升幅度预测值为10~16 cm。这一海平面上升行为的甄别结果为当地决策者制定河口三角洲系统适应气候变化和海平面上升的工程和非工程措施提供科学依据,以期减少日益加剧的洪灾损失。此项工作未来充满挑战。

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