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《工程(英文)》 >> 2019年 第5卷 第2期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2018.12.008

基于成本-安全均衡的川藏高速公路规划设计方法研究

Department of Construction Management, School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and
Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

收稿日期: 2018-07-24 修回日期: 2018-11-22 录用日期: 2018-12-29

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摘要

山区高速公路的规划设计是通过合规性检查来保障其运营安全的。然而,仅仅依赖于合规性检查会误导工程设计人员在实际操作中选取符合规范的且成本造价最低的方案作为最终的设计方案,而该方案的整体风险水平却是未知的,这将给项目运营带来巨大的安全隐患。本文提出了一种基于成本- 安全均衡的高速公路规划设计方法,该方法主要包括以下四个步骤:① 分别提取项目成本与安全的影响因素,以少量参数化的方式来表达高速公路的设计方案;② 建立风险因素与项目成本之间的预估方程式;③ 通过构造事故树模型,在众多设计参数中识别出风险因素;④ 将可接受风险分析理论引入交通安全评价中,提出了一种在可接受风险范围内求解具有成本效益的最优解的算法,以帮助管理者决策。该方法在位于海拔梯度大、山脉范围广的川藏高速公路工程项目中得到了应用和验证。实验结果表明,该方法显著提高了项目设计的安全性以及成本效益。

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