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《工程(英文)》 >> 2020年 第6卷 第10期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.08.010

新冠病毒传播的可能路径:自然宿主–环境介质–人

a School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
b Key Laboratory of Drinking Water Science and Technology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China

收稿日期: 2020-07-17 修回日期: 2020-07-21 录用日期: 2020-08-07 发布日期: 2020-09-05

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摘要

传统上,识别第一个感染病例(零号病人)是追溯病毒来源的关键,但是,常常很难找到零号病人。特别是如果零号病人无症状或症状非常轻微,无看医生或相关病情记录,可能永远也无法找到。因此,是否可以跳过零号病人追溯到病毒的来源?针对上述问题,研究中分析了人类历史上的病毒暴发以及病毒在环境中的存活时间等。发现很大比例的疫情事件都是由人类直接接触带有传染性病毒的环境介质而引起的,同时病毒可以在环境介质中长期保持活性。另一方面,随着人类活动能力不断增强,与动物等生存空间的逐渐重叠,人类与带病毒环境介质(我们称之为“环境准宿主”)之间的接触大大增加。因此,研究中提出了跳过零号病人在环境中追溯病毒来源的可能路径,即以携带SARS-CoV-2或RaTG3相关冠状病毒的环境介质为目标,基于自然宿主–环境介质(环境准宿主)–人的传播路径,进行新冠病毒溯源。

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