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《中国工程科学》 >> 2022年 第24卷 第2期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.02.015

近地小行星撞击风险应对战略研究

1. 探月与航天工程中心,北京 100190;

2. 深空探测实验室,合肥 230016;

3. 北京卫星环境工程研究所,北京 100094;

4. 辽宁大学空间科学与技术研究院,沈阳 110036

资助项目 :国家航天局“近地小行星撞击风险应对重大专项” (KJSP2020020101);国家航天局民用航天技术预先研究项目 (D020304) 收稿日期: 2022-02-01 修回日期: 2022-03-07 发布日期: 2022-03-17

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摘要

小行星撞击地球引发过 10 次以上不同程度的生物灭绝事件,是人类长期共同面临的重大潜在威胁;防范近地小行星( NEA)撞击风险事关全球安危与人类文明存续,相关研究现实需求迫切、战略意义深远。本文阐述了 NEA 撞击危害及撞击地球风险情况,研判了积极开展应对的重要意义;系统分析了当前 NEA 撞击风险应对的国际研究态势,涵盖应对流程、监测预警、撞击灾害评估、在轨处置等内容;全面总结了我国 NEA 撞击风险应对的基础进展及存在不足。在此基础上,研究提出了我国应对 NEA 撞击风险的发展目标、体系构成,论证形成了监测预警、在轨处置、灾害救援等重点任务以及基础研究、国际合作主导方向。研究建议,加强撞击风险应对能力顶层设计和长远谋划,高效建立“内聚外联”撞击风险应对业务体系,快速形成撞击风险应对能力和创新能力,着力构建行星防御领域人类命运共同体,由此发展适应国情特色且“监测精准、预警可靠、应对有效、救援有力”的行星防御体系。

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