2023年 第25卷 第2期
《中国工程科学》 >> 2023年 第25卷 第2期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2023.07.013
京津冀协同推进碳达峰碳中和路径研究
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摘要
京津冀地区是我国能源消耗、碳排放的集聚区，研究区域内碳达峰、碳中和的推进举措，对实现高质量的区域协同发展至关重要。本文构建了考虑京津冀地区特征的长期能源替代规划系统模型（LEAP-BTH），设置了基准情景、低碳情景、协同情景等主要情景以及8个子情景，完成了2021—2060年京津冀地区相应发展路径的预测分析。结果表明：在基准情景下，京津冀地区能源需求将持续增长，2060年北京市、天津市、河北省的碳排放量分别下降为2020年的41%、40%、53%，实现碳中和目标面临较大挑战；在低碳情景下，2060 年北京市、天津市、河北省的碳排放量分别下降为 2020 年的 20%、26%、46%，相比碳中和目标仍有一定差距；在协同情景下，2060年北京市、天津市、河北省的碳排放量分别下降为2020年的13%、15%、21%，能够基本实现碳中和目标。研究建议，京津冀三省市需针对各自的重点减排部门和路径，提出更明确、更严格的应对措施，如北京市重点推动交通、建筑部门的低碳转型，天津市、河北省着力开展可再生能源替代与工业绿色升级；优化顶层设计，挖掘区域内工业、能源、交通等部门的协同发展潜力，重点推动产业协同升级和能源协同发展，据此支撑京津冀地区的“双碳”工作和高质量发展。
关键词
京津冀协同发展 ; LEAP-BTH模型 ; 能源需求 ; “双碳”目标
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