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Frontiers of Mechanical Engineering >> 2009, Volume 4, Issue 1 doi: 10.1007/s11465-009-0015-z

General expression for linear and nonlinear time series models

School of Mechanical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China

Available online:2009-03-05

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The typical time series models such as ARMA, AR, and MA are founded on the normality and stationarity of a system and expressed by a linear difference equation; therefore, they are strictly limited to the linear system. However, some nonlinear factors are within the practical system; thus, it is difficult to fit the model for real systems with the above models. This paper proposes a general expression for linear and nonlinear auto-regressive time series models (GNAR). With the gradient optimization method and modified AIC information criteria integrated with the prediction error, the parameter estimation and order determination are achieved. The model simulation and experiments show that the GNAR model can accurately approximate to the dynamic characteristics of the most nonlinear models applied in academics and engineering. The modeling and prediction accuracy of the GNAR model is superior to the classical time series models. The proposed GNAR model is flexible and effective.

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