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Strategic Study of Chinese Academy of Engineering >> 2019, Volume 21, Issue 1 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.01.010

China’s Demand for Energy and Mineral Resources by 2035

1. Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China;

2. Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China

Received:2019-01-06 Revised:2019-01-18

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Since 2000, China’s consumption of energy and mineral resources has grown rapidly, and its consumption of some important mineral resources has even exceeded half of the global consumption. Medium- and long-term resource demand forecast is an important basis for national policy formulation and strategic planning. Based on historical statistics such as China’s population, GDP, and mineral resources consumption, this paper adopts the S-shape rule of per capita consumption, the demand analogy and proportional relationship measurement algorithm, and the departmental consumption method, to systematically predict the demand for 43 types of major mineral resources before 2035. Results show that China’s demand for mineral resources has changed from high-speed growth to differential growth; its demand for most of the bulk minerals will peak by 2025; the structure of primary energy sources will change dramatically when their demand peak by 2030, with the demand for Coal falling from 60.4% in 2017 to 46.3%, that for natural gas increasing from 6.6% to 13.2%, and that for non-fossil energy increasing from 13.6% to 23.4%; and demand for most strategic emerging minerals will continue to grow before 2035, and the global structure and pattern of supply and demand for energy and mineral resources will change greatly.


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