《1 Introduction to MIT Technology Review》

1 Introduction to MIT Technology Review

The MIT Technology Review is the world’s oldest technology business magazine, published in 1899. It covers a wide range of fields, including the Internet, communications, computer technology, energy, new materials, biomedicine, and business technology [1]. Since 2001, the MIT Technology Review has published “10 Global Breakthrough Technologies” and focused on the commercial application potential of these technologies and their significant impact on human life and society [2].

Jason Pontin, the editor of the MIT Technology Review, said: “Breakthrough technologies can be engineering ideas, solutions to problems and challenges, and cross-disciplinary and crossindustry applications.” These breakthrough technologies will revolutionize the entire industry and even the nature of the current society [3]. Therefore, the editors and writers of MIT Technology Review use the criteria to select technologies and recommend candidate technologies each year. In addition, they discuss with the chief editor, senior editor, designer, and R&D personnel when they select the 10 technologies.

Editors and writers also use the principles of information collection independence, technology resource reliability, fair reports of dispute technologies, and strict factual verification to guide the writing of the 10 breakthrough technologies. The editors and writers collect information directly from the personnel involved in technology innovation and technology financing. In most cases, the source of the technology information is specified in the content of the article. It is anonymous only when confidentiality is required. In the case of dispute technologies, the opinions of both parties are reported in a fair manner on the basis of the professional experience, judgment, and knowledge, and the data must be strictly verified and edited by multiple persons before being released.

《2 Overview of the 10 breakthrough technologies in the past six years (2012 to 2017)》

2 Overview of the 10 breakthrough technologies in the past six years (2012 to 2017)

From 2012 to 2017, the MIT Technology Review reviewed 60 breakthrough technologies. We mainly study the 10 breakthrough technologies released in the past six years. We focus on the breakthroughs and implementation methods of technologies to understand the effective ways of technology development. We also focused on the impact of technologies on the industry,society, and life to grasp the future trends of industry, science, and technology. This article describes the breakthroughs and significance of the 60 technologies in the form of tables based on the time of release of the technologies. In addition, the article predicts the maturity of the breakthrough technologies released from 2015 to 2017.

《3 Analysis of breakthrough technologies released within the past six years (2012 to 2017)》

3 Analysis of breakthrough technologies released within the past six years (2012 to 2017)

《3.1 The Technologies take the lead in the Internet and electronics and information fields and appeal to the health and energy fields》

3.1 The Technologies take the lead in the Internet and electronics and information fields and appeal to the health and energy fields

The 60 breakthrough technologies are mainly used in seven fields, including the Internet (16 technologies), health (14 technologies), electronics and information (12 technologies), energy (8 technologies), industry (4 technologies), materials (3 technologies), agriculture (2 technologies), and other fields (1 technology). The proportion of technologies in the Internet and electronics and information fields is close to 50%, but the proportion of technologies in the industry and agriculture fields is only 10%, indicating that the technologies in the Internet and electronic & information fields are driving a new round of technology growth. Technologies in the health and energy fields also play an important role. New technologies in drug development and the disease diagnosis and treatment fields are emerging, and the competitiveness of renewable energy technologies is increasing.

《3.2 The cross-field integration of technologies becomes the main trend, and the implementation of some technologies that can meet actual requirements takes a long time》

3.2 The cross-field integration of technologies becomes the main trend, and the implementation of some technologies that can meet actual requirements takes a long time

Based on the criteria used by MIT Technology Review to select the 10 breakthrough technologies, we classify the 60 technologies into four categories (Table 7): (category A) technologies with commercial application prospects and industry innovation capabilities, (category B) technologies that have significant impact on the society and public life, (category C) cross-field enabling technologies that are generated by science and technology innovation, and (category D) technologies that can meet actual requirements and address difficulties. Four technology categories and their technical content are as shown in Fig. 2. The cross-field integration and crossing of technologies are important ways to generate cutting-edge technologies in the future and lay an important foundation for promoting technology progress in other fields. It is difficult to implement in a short period some technologies that need to meet actual requirements. For example, a cure paralysis technology relies on other technologies such as biology, communications, and MEMS.

《Table 1》

Table 1. Ten breakthrough technologies and their significance in 2017.

 

《Table 2》

Table 2. Ten breakthrough technologies and their significance in 2016.

 

《Table 3》

Table 3. Ten breakthrough technologies and their significance in 2015.

 

《Table 4》

Table 4. Ten breakthrough technologies and their significance in 2014.

 

《Table 5》

Table 5. Ten breakthrough technologies and their significance in 2013.

 

《Table 6》

Table 6. Ten breakthrough technologies and their significance in 2012.

 

《Table 7》

Table 7. Four technology categories.

 

《Fig. 1》

Fig. 1. Distribution of 60 breakthrough technologies in different fields.

 

《Fig. 2》

Fig. 2. Four technology categories and their technical content.

 

《3.3 The technology selection focuses on mature technologies and medium- and long-term technologies, and the mature application of technologies has a clear evolutionary path》

3.3 The technology selection focuses on mature technologies and medium- and long-term technologies, and the mature application of technologies has a clear evolutionary path

According to the analysis on the maturity periods of the selected technologies (seen from the column for Availability in Tables 1 to 3), the proportion of mature technologies (30technologies), technologies that will become mature within five years (including five years), technologies that will become mature after five years is 3∶ 2∶1. The proportion meets the rule of focusing on short-term breakthrough technologies and giving consideration to medium- and long-term technologies. Furthermore, the analysis shows that most mature technologies are included in category B and have significant impact on social and public life. The technologies that will become mature within five years are included in categories A and C. The technologies that will become mature after five years are included in category D. There are two ways for breakthrough technologies to achieve a profound impact on social and public life. One way is through the breakthrough technologies that have to meet the commercial application conditions and the core competitiveness of industry transformation. The other way is to integrate existing technologies across fields so that the technologies can be widely applied. The breakthrough technologies that meet practical requirements and address difficulties must rely on the progress of basic science and the breakthrough of technologies. These technologies may be implemented in the long term.

《3.4 Freelance writers and senior editors are deeply involved in the technology review to ensure extensive technology selection and deep technology analysis》

3.4 Freelance writers and senior editors are deeply involved in the technology review to ensure extensive technology selection and deep technology analysis

The senior writers of each technical field participate in the selection and review of the 60 breakthrough technologies as off-staff members of the magazine, which improves the objectivity and credibility of the magazine (Fig. 3). In addition, a cadre of senior editors has completed 50 % of the writing of the technical documents, which ensures the in-depth analysis of the technology breakthroughs and the mastery of technology impact.

《Fig. 3》

Fig. 3. Position type and personnel proportion of the people who reviewed 60 breakthrough technologies.

 

《4 Conclusions》

4 Conclusions

《4.1 The progressive development of technologies is conducive to the steady commercialization of the technologies》

4.1 The progressive development of technologies is conducive to the steady commercialization of the technologies

The progressive development and spiral innovation have little impact on the technology roadmap or industrial pattern, which is conducive to reduce the cost and steady implementation of the commercial application of technologies. For example, from 2012 to 2017, solar panels gradually improved the efficiency of PV conversion, efficiently utilize the light energy, and reduce the commercializing manufacturing cost by using new materials, new optical technologies, light control, and manufacturing technologies.

《4.2 Fully consider the negative impact of technologies and take measures in advance》

4.2 Fully consider the negative impact of technologies and take measures in advance

During technology innovation and commercialization, we need to recognize the impact of certain technologies on existing business models and social life and develop countermeasures in advance. For example, the automatic driving of long-distance goods vehicles may result in the decrease in the salary of drivers of the trucks. The capability of malware to destroy the Internet will become increasingly large. Therefore, we need to actively develop technologies such as the web filtering service to cope with this problem.

《4.3 Breakthrough technologies are difficult to predict accurately, but their development rules can be identified》

4.3 Breakthrough technologies are difficult to predict accurately, but their development rules can be identified

There are many uncertainties in the process of technology development. Many technology factors cannot be quantitatively modeled. As a result, it is difficult to predict the development of technologies. For example, virtual technologies are not correctly judged, some difficulties are underestimated, and the impact of technology breakthrough in related fields is not accurately predicted. About 50 % of the 60 breakthrough technologies selected by the MIT Technology Review in the past five years are developing as planned. Therefore, we should use the MIT Technology Review’s roadmap for predicting the development of technologies based on their commercial application potential and their impact on social and public life.