2000, Volume 2, Issue 7
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2000, Volume 2, Issue 7
Forecast Study on Medium and Long Term Energy Demand in Rural Area of China
Department of Environmental Protection and Energy, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100026, China
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Abstract
Rural energy forecast belongs to the category of regional energy forecast. To forecast the demand of energy consumption in rural area of China will be useful for drawing out the rural energy strategy with rural sustainable development. Based on analysis and calculation this paper brings forward the conventional scheme and the strengthening renewable energy utilization scheme.The energy consumption in rural region is mainly divided into two components, i.e. used for economic development and for farmer households living. Following the progress in implementation of the state key project “Small Rural City - township Construction” most of rural population will be urbanized locally. It is expected by the year of 2020 and 2050, there will be about 670 and 480 millions of pepole living in rural area, and in the case of the “strengthening” scheme, the total commodity energy demand is about 1290 and 1632 Mt coal equivalent ,respectively.If the energy consumption in village and town enterprises is not included in two schemes, the total energy demand in rural area will be 970 〜1080 Mt coal equivalent in 2050. The coal consumption will account for 31.7% of the total.
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