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Strategic Study of CAE >> 2007, Volume 9, Issue 10

The Lesson From Hurricane Katrina 2005——Risk Analysis for Coastal, Offshore, and Hydraulic Engineering

Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong 266003, China

Funding project:国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679076) Received: 2006-04-10 Revised: 2006-06-01

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Abstract

Comparison among predicted hurricane characteristics with the Poisson-Weibull compound extreme value distribution proposed by the authors in 1982,  Poisson-nested logistic trivariate compound extreme value distribution in 2004 and hurricane disaster prevention design criteria for New Orleans (proposed by NOAA) shows that the compound extreme value distribution is a more reasonable model for typhoon or hurricane statistical prediction.  Based on the lesson from Hurricane Katrina,  this paper involved the uncertainty analysis and multivariate joint probability theory to the risk assessment for coastal,  offshore and hydraulic engineering.

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