2010, Volume 12, Issue 1
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2010, Volume 12, Issue 1
Forecast of fire accidents based on Grey-Markov model
1. Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy, Langfang, Hebei 065000, China;
2. Zhengzhou Municipal Fire Brigade, Zhengzhou 450000, China
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Abstract
The occurrence of fire accidents is influenced by many complex factors, and it has the characteristics of random and fluctuation, so grey model and Markov model are combined together to establish a new Grey-Markov model in this paper .The paper adopts grey model and Markov model to show grey feature and random separately, at last the model is used to predict fire accidents in countryside. The result shows the forecast precision of Grey-Markov model is higher than the forecast precision of grey model, the model can satisfy the demand in forecast precision, and it can be used for fire accidents forecast.
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References
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