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Strategic Study of CAE >> 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6

A systems view of the earthquake forecast

Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received: 2009-04-17 Available online: 2009-06-15 15:28:47.000

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Abstract

The focal point of this paper is to use the principle and method of systems sciences to prove that the standpoint of the mainstream earthquake scientists is unscientific and unreasonable, namely, the earthquake can't be forecasted essentially, and to prove the opposed standpoint is scientific and reasonable, namely, roughly estimate the range of time and location of the strong shock to a certain degree, and lead masses to know beforehand. To have limited space, this paper further proves the conclusion with only 2 examples only.

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