Variations of phosphorus (P) and its species in surface sediment of Baiyangdian Lake, a eutrophic shallow lake located in North China, were investigated through combination of field survey and numerical calculation based on cluster analysis. P fractionation was performed by a sequential extraction scheme, categorized as loosely bound P (NH Cl-P), reductant soluble P (BD-P), metallic oxide bound P (NaOH-P), calcium bound P (HCl-P) and organic P (Org-P). P concentrations exhibited regional similarities and a total of four sub-areas were identified in which the same rank was HCl-P>Org-P>BD-P ≈ NaOH-P>NH Cl-P. NH Cl-P, BD-P and Org-P were found to contribute to P enrichment in overlying water column. Specifically, labile Org-P acted as a potential pool with a greater contribution in aerobic layer compared to anaerobic layer. A hysteresis (lag= 4 months) existed when labile Org-P concentration was negatively correlated with aerobic layer thickness. In view of magnitude of identified P contributors in sub-areas, higher potential of P release was present in Fuhe River and Tang River estuary areas. On the basis of calibration and verification, the mathematical model with parameter settings applied in this study was improved to serve as a tool for limnology management and eutrophic control.