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2013年 第7卷 第2期

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《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 >> 2013年 第7卷 第2期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0431-x

Modeling the impact of uncertainty in emissions trading markets with bankable permits

State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control & Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

发布日期： 2013-04-01
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The various forms of uncertainty that firms may face in bankable emission permit trading markets will affect firms’ decision making as well as their market performance. This research explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future input costs and output prices on the temporal distribution of emission. In a dynamic programming setting, the permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of coal and electricity. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions in order to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. Finally, safety valves, both low-side and high-side, are suggested to reduce the impact of uncertainty in bankable emission trading markets.

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