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《工程管理前沿(英文)》 >> 2019年 第6卷 第1期 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0007-6

Sufficient or insufficient: Assessment of the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) of the world’s major greenhouse gas emitters

1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
2. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; Productivity and Efficiency Measurement Laboratory, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
3. Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia; Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
4. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing 100081, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing 100081, China

录用日期: 2019-01-04 发布日期: 2019-03-12

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摘要

The recent Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has resulted in the submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 190 countries. This study aims to provide an analysis of the ambitiousness and fairness of the mitigation components of the INDCs submitted by various parties. We use a unified framework to assess 23 INDCs that cover 50 countries, including European Union (EU)-28 countries as parties to the Convention, which represent 87.45% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. First, we transform initial INDC files into reported reduction targets. Second, we create four schemes and six scenarios to determine the required reduction effort, which considers each nation’s reduction responsibility, capacity, and potential, thereby reflecting their historical and current development status. Finally, we combine the reported reduction target and the required reduction effort to assess INDCs. Evaluation results of the 23 emitters indicate that 2 emitters (i.e., EU and Brazil) are rated as “sufficient,” 7 emitters (e.g., China, the United States, and Canada) are rated as “moderate,” and 14 emitters (e.g., India, Russia, and Japan) are rated as “insufficient.” Most pledges exhibit a considerable distance from representing a fair contribution.

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