2017年 第3卷 第1期
《工程（英文）》 >> 2017年 第3卷 第1期 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2016.04.011
CMIP5 模式对大尺度年平均地面气温异常的多年代际趋势的模拟评估和未来预估
a College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
b Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089, China
c Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China
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摘要
基于观测和第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5) 模式的模拟结果，本文对全球、半球、半球陆地及海洋尺度的年平均地面气温异常在过去一百多年及两个代表性浓度路径(RCPs) 情景下的多年代际变化及趋势进行了评估分析。根据模式对全球平均地面气温异常的时间变率、长期趋势、多年代际变化及趋势的模拟能力，筛选出15 个模式进行分析。观测结果表明，北半球陆地、北半球海洋和南半球海洋平均地面气温异常与全球平均地面气温异常具有相似的多年代际变化特征：在1900—1944 年及1971—2000 年呈现增暖趋势，并在1945—1970 年和2001—2013 年呈现增暖停滞甚至变冷趋势。模式能够基本再现以上观测特征。然而，与以上变化不同的是，南半球陆地的平均地面气温在1945—1970 年呈现增暖趋势，并且模式不能很好模拟该特征。对于近期的增暖停滞阶段(2001—2013 年)，BCC-CSM1-1-m 模式、CMCC-CM 模式、GFDL-ESM2M 模式及NorESM1-ME模式在RCP4.5 和RCP8.5 情景下预估的全球及半球尺度的地面气温异常趋势值最接近观测值，表明它们具有较好的预估能力。由于这四个模式在地面气温异常的多年代际趋势上具有较好的模拟及预估性能，故选择它们来预估2006—2099 年的地面气温异常在全球及半球尺度上的变化特征。结果显示在RCP4.5(RCP8.5) 情景下，所选四个模式集合平均的全球、北半球及南半球年平均地面气温异常趋势值分别为0.17(0.29)、0.22(0.36) 及0.11(0.23) °C•decade–1，其趋势值明显小于未经过模式筛选的CMIP5 模式集合的结果。
关键词
地面气温异常 ; 多年代际趋势 ; 第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5) ; 预估
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