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《工程(英文)》 >> 2017年 第3卷 第4期 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.019

基于碳排放达峰约束的2030年中国能源供需模型及实证研究

China Datang Corporation, Beijing 100033, China

录用日期: 2017-05-26 发布日期: 2017-08-30

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摘要

综合考虑经济发展、技术进步、政策目标、资源禀赋、环境容量等方面因素,设计了中国能源供需模型,构建了碳排放提前达峰和既定达峰两种情景。应用模型对两种情景下的能源供需和碳排放进行了分析,结果显示:2030年前一次能源和电力需求将持续增长,电力需求增速将显著快于一次能源需求;低碳化是能源供需结构变化的基本特征,2030年前非化石能源将超过石油成为第二大能源;选择能效更高的能源消费模式和更加低碳的能源供应方式,能源消费产生的碳排放可能在2025年左右提前达峰;电源结构的低碳化是碳排放尽早达峰、降低峰值的关键因素。

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