《工程(英文)》 >> 2021年 第7卷 第8期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.03.015
人类活动对京津冀地区冬季霾相关气象条件的影响
a National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
b Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
c School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China
d Camford Royal School, Beijing 100093, China
e Climate and Environment Modeling Lab, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710061, China
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摘要
本文利用20世纪气候检测归因计划的CAM5.1-1degree模式,综合考虑人类活动和自然强迫(All-Hist)以及单独考虑自然强迫(Nat-Hist)的两种数值模拟试验结果,对1961—2016年期间人类活动影响京津冀地区冬季霾事件相关气象条件的物理过程进行了分析和讨论。结果表明,考虑人类活动影响后,与京津冀冬季霾事件相关的动力和热力气象条件的变化均不利于污染物的扩散,进而有利于霾的形成和累积,其中动力条件主要包括东亚冬季风显著减弱、低层异常南风增强,热力条件包括地面气温明显升高、水汽输送增强和近地面地表逆温增强等。同时,也利用统计方法进一步分析了两种试验中动力和热力气象条件对京津冀霾日数变化的相对贡献,结果表明:人类活动对京津冀冬季霾日增多的贡献大于自然强迫,其中动力气象因子对霾日产生的贡献更大,热力因子的贡献在两种情景下基本相同。
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