2020年 第6卷 第10期
《工程（英文）》 >> 2020年 第6卷 第10期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.04.008
临床诊断标准实施和全城症状排查对武汉新冠病毒肺炎疫情防控的效果评价
a Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
b Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
c Guangzhou Women and Children’s Medical Center, Guangzhou 510623, China
d Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
e Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
# These authors contributed equally to this work.
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摘要
自新型冠状病毒肺炎（coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19）疫情发生以来，中国大多数的病例集中在武汉市。虽然早期病例数和死亡人数迅速增加，但通过采取多种防控措施，疫情得以快速遏制。纵观全球，疫情已蔓延至全球六大洲的187个国家，确诊病例数已超过300万，这一数字仍在快速增长。在此特殊背景下，有必要对我国疫情防控措施开展科学的、定量的评估，为全球疫情防控提供决策依据。为此，本研究评估了临床诊断标准实施和全城症状排查对武汉市疫情控制的贡献。考虑COVID-19的传播机理、隔离措施等，建立SEIR+Q传播动力学模型。基于武汉市截至2020年2月14日官方公布的每日确诊病例数和未确诊的临床诊断病例数进行建模，并预测2月14日以后的疫情态势。基于实际疫情数据，与模型预测趋势相比较，评价防控措施效果。结果显示，若维持2月14日以前防控措施不变，那么预测将于3月25日和4月29日，每日新增病例数分别降至100例和10例以下，将于5月31日首次现零。而事实上，截至3月6日，武汉市每日新增病例数降至100例以下，截至3月11日降至10例以下，3月18日首次实现零增长，较之模型预测结果分别提前了19 d、49 d和74 d。截至3月30日，实际累计病例数为50 006例，比模型预测值减少19 951例。有效再生数[effective reproductive number, R(t)]分析显示，2月6−10日的第一次全城症状排查后，R(t)显现出下降趋势，2月12−14日的临床诊断标准实施和2月17−19日的第二次全城症状排查后，R(t)显现出较大的降幅，与实际情况较为一致。综上所述，武汉市临床诊断标准的实施和全城症状排查等综合防控措施成效显著，可为世界各国的疫情防控决策提供科学依据。
关键词
COVID-19 ; SEIR+Q传染病动力学模型 ; 临床诊断标准 ; 全城症状排查 ; 干预效果评价
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参考文献
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