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《工程(英文)》 >> 2022年 第14卷 第7期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.01.012

气候变暖加剧西藏自治区谷类作物单产的减产效应

a Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
b Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
c Sino–French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
d Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States

收稿日期: 2020-10-02 修回日期: 2020-12-31 录用日期: 2021-01-19 发布日期: 2021-04-20

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摘要

藏区农业是西藏自治区独特的历史和文化遗产的重要载体。与内地不同,作为唯一能在海拔4000 m以上生长的谷类作物,青稞是西藏自治区最主要的粮食作物。然而,气候变化对以青稞为主的西藏自治区谷类作物单产的影响仍不清楚。为此,本研究基于1985—2015年西藏自治区农业统计数据,解析了气候变暖对西藏自治区谷类作物单产的影响。研究发现,在20世纪80年代和90年代,气候变暖对西藏自治区谷类作物单产的影响并不显著(P > 0.10);但21 世纪以来,气候变暖显著降低了西藏自治区谷类作物单产(P < 0.05)。同时,西藏自治区谷类作物单产变化对气候变暖的敏感度几乎加倍:从(−0.13 ± 0.20) t·ha−1·°C−1增至(−0.22 ± 0.14) t·ha−1·°C−1,表明气候变暖导致西藏自治区谷类作物生产更加脆弱。不仅如此,随着气温继续升高,当全球平均气温升幅比工业革命前高1.5 °C 和2 °C时,西藏自治区谷类作物单产对气候变暖的敏感度将比当前再增强1~2 倍,分别达到(−0.33 ± 0.10) t·ha−1·°C−1和(−0.51 ± 0.18) t·ha−1·°C−1。如何应对全球变化、实现农业可持续发展是当前西藏自治区社会发展面临的重大挑战。

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