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《工程(英文)》 >> 2021年 第7卷 第7期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.017

全球旅行和接触限制对减缓COVID-19 疫情大流行作用的评估

a WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
b Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
c Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA
d School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 510275, China
e School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China

收稿日期: 2021-01-07 修回日期: 2021-02-01 录用日期: 2021-03-23 发布日期: 2021-05-06

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摘要

为了减缓新冠病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的大流行,全球已广泛实施了旅行限制和保持社交距离的措施,但这些干预措施在不同地区和时间方面的有效性尚待深入研究。基于2020年第一波疫情期间135个国家或地区手机定位数据获得的人口流动指标,我们构建了一个元人口流行病学模型(metapopulation epidemiological model),用于评估全球旅行和接触限制对遏制不同地区COVID-19传播的影响。研究发现,如果未采取这些干预措施,截至2020年5月31日,研究地区(135个国家或地区)的累计COVID-19病例数可能已增加97倍(四分位距为79~116)。然而,这些措施的有效性取决于干预的及时性、强度和持续时长,并且不同人群、地区和季节的发病严重程度有所差异。此外,本研究结果强调,在放松干预措施期间,并且在有效的疫苗普及和实现群体免疫之前,在一定程度上,仍需采取减少人员接触的措施,以避免下一波疫情的快速出现和再次采取全面封锁措施。

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