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《工程(英文)》 >> 2021年 第7卷 第7期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.020

基于情景构建的中国COVID-19相关基本临床医疗资源需求评估

a School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
b Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
c Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical University, Guilin 541001, China

# These authors contributed equally to this work.

收稿日期: 2021-01-17 修回日期: 2021-02-15 录用日期: 2021-03-25 发布日期: 2021-05-21

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摘要

新冠病毒肺炎(COVID-19)大流行是全球性的公共危机。COVID-19疫情暴发后,感染病例和重症患者骤增,导致亟需救治的患者数量增加、医疗资源供不应求,许多国家的医疗系统不堪重负,甚至崩溃。本研究基于不同情景下的COVID-19疫情暴发和防控,旨在评估中国COVID-19疫情相关的基本临床医疗资源需求。本研究使用易感者-潜隐者-传染者-住院/隔离者-移除者(包括康复和死亡)(SEIHR)传播动力学仓储模型来估计感染者和住院/隔离患者的数量,以及所需的基本医疗资源。研究发现,在实施严格的非药物干预(NPI)措施或大规模人群接种疫苗的情景下,中国能够迅速控制社区传播和局部地区暴发的聚集性疫情。然而,在实施较低强度的NPI措施和通过疫苗接种获得免疫的人口比例较低的情景下,需要使用平疫转换模式来储备医疗资源和提高服务能力,以确保疫情发生时医疗卫生系统的正常运行。不同时期COVID-19疫苗的接种和NPI措施的实施会减缓疫情的传播,进而影响临床救治需求。在构建的情景中,无症状感染者比例的增加不会减少对医疗资源的需求,但会增大疫情防控的难度。本研究为全球抗击COVID-19疫情期间防控策略的调整提供了依据,为未来应对COVID-19疫情大流行的公共卫生应急准备提供借鉴,也为基本医疗资源储备和配置提供指导。

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