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《工程(英文)》 >> 2023年 第21卷 第2期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.12.011

COVID-19大流行期间流感活动呈“断崖式”下降——佩戴口罩、人员流动变化及SARS-CoV-2干扰的作用

a Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
b Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
c School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China
d Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
e WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom
f Division for Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
g Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
h National Engineering Laboratory of Big Data Analysis and Applied Technology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

# These authors contributed equally to this work.

收稿日期: 2021-11-09 修回日期: 2021-12-13 录用日期: 2021-12-26 发布日期: 2022-02-02

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摘要

一般情况下,每年冬季是季节性流感高发季节,但在当前新冠病毒肺炎(COVID-19)大流行期间,全球季节性流感活动呈“断崖式”下降。为应对即将到来的流感季节,亟需弄清这种前所未有的流感低水平流行的原因。本文中,我们探索了一种国家特异性推理模型,利用该模型估计中国、英国和美国这三个国家中佩戴口罩、人员流动变化(国际和国内)以及严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 型(SARS-CoV-2)干扰的影响。结果发现,在这些地区增加一周佩戴口罩的干预措施,流感活动可减少11.3%~35.2%。实施一周的限制人员流动措施对国际(流感活动可减少1.7%~6.5%)和国内社区(流感活动可减少1.6%~2.8%)的影响较小。2020—2021 年,仅佩戴口罩这一项干预措施就可使阳性率下降13.3%~19.8%。仅人员流动变化可使阳性率降低5.2%~14.0%,其中,79.8%~98.2%归因于国际旅行限制。SARS-CoV-2 干扰仅在2019—2020 年具有统计学显著效应。中国北方地区及英国的阳性百分比分别降低7.6%(2.4~14.4)和10.2%(7.2~13.6)。探索所得出的结果对了解非药物干预措施和其他呼吸系统疾病背景下的流感演变有一定意义,有助于制定卫生政策,并可为公共卫生措施的个性化设计提供信息。

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