期刊首页 优先出版 当期阅读 过刊浏览 作者中心 关于期刊 English

《中国工程科学》 >> 2016年 第18卷 第4期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2016.04.018

大数据分析方法在战略性新兴产业技术预见中的应用

1. 华中科技大学生命科学与技术学院,武汉 430074;

2. 清华大学公共管理学院,北京 100084;

3. 华中科技大学机械科学与工程学院,武汉 430074

资助项目 :中国工程院重大咨询项目“‘十三五’战略性新兴产业培育与发展规划研究”(2014-ZD-7);中国工程院知识中心项目(20155660158); 国家自然科学基金项目 (L1524015,71203117,71233005);清华大学绿色经济与可持续发展研究中心研究子项目(20153000181) 收稿日期: 2016-05-25 修回日期: 2016-06-26 发布日期: 2016-09-21

下一篇 上一篇

摘要

作为创新战略管理工具,技术预见受到越来越多的重视。学术界对技术预见方法及其应用进行了大量的相关研究,但是对不同路径的新兴产业进行技术预见,尤其针对发展中国家的追赶型产业创新进行技术预见,仍是亟待深入探讨的理论难题。另外,大多数技术预见仍然以德尔菲法专家分析法为主,其制定过程主要还是依赖专家的知识经验,而缺乏客观的大数据支撑,在分析研究上往往偏向主观而缺乏信度和效度。本文将探索专利、文献等大数据应用于支撑我国新兴产业技术预见的理论和方法研究。

图片

图 1

图 2

参考文献

[ 1 ] Miles I. The development of technology foresight: A review [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2010, 77(9): 1448–1456. 链接1

[ 2 ] Blind K, Cuhls K, Grupp H. Current foresight activities in Central Europe [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1999, 60(1): 15–35. 链接1

[ 3 ] Georghiou L. The UK technology foresight programme [J]. Futures, 1996, 28(4): 359–377.
Georghiou L. The UK technology foresight program [J]. Futures, 1996, 28 (4): 359–377. 链接1

[ 4 ] MartinB R, Johnston R. Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system: experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1999, 60(1): 37–54. 链接1

[ 5 ] Kuwahara T. Technology forecasting activities in Japan [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1999, 60(1): 5–14. 链接1

[ 6 ] Lee S K, Mogi G, Kim J W. Energy technology roadmap for the 表 2 论文分析指标计量指标 计算方法 指标说明,表征的意义分区刊均论文数量分别统计 ABCD 四个分区(论文数量 / 该分区的期刊数)反映了该技术点不同研究水平的论文数量,从而可以了解该技术点学术研究活动水平论文综合 指标分区刊均论文数量 × 该分区的刊均影响因子反映了该技术点学术研究活动水平。指标越高,说明该技术点的学术研究水平越高文献增长率R =Pa(n) − Pa(n − 1)Pa(n − 1)(Pa(n) 表示第 n 年的文献发表数量 )文献增长率反映了技术创新能力的变化程度。指标越高,说明该技术的创新能力增强越多篇均引用量 论文被引用的总次数 / 论文总数 理论上讲,被引次数是衡量学术论文影响力和质量的标尺。指标越高,反映了该技术点越强的重要性和地位127中国工程科学 2016 年 第 18 卷 第 4 期next 10 years: The case of Korea [J]. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(2): 588–596.
Lee S K, Mogi G, Kim J W. Energy technology roadmap for the next 10 years: the case of Korea [J]. Energy Policy, 2009, 37 (2): 588–596.

[ 7 ] Choi M, Choi H L, Yang H Y, et al. Characteristics of 4th Korean technology foresight[C]//Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2012 Proceedings of PICMET’12: Technology management for emerging technologies (PICMET) July29-Aug 2, 2012, Vancouver, BC. New York: IEEE, 2012: 1330–1354.
Choi M, Choi H L, Yang H, et al. Characteristics of 4th Korean technology foresight [C]. In: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2012 Proceedings of PICMET’12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies (PICMET). New York: IEEE, 2012: 1330–1354. 链接1

[ 8 ] 郭卫东. 技术预见理论方法及关键技术创新模式研究[D]. 北京: 北京邮电大学, 2007.
Guo W D. Technology foresight theory method and key technology innovation model research [D]. Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 2007. Chinese. 链接1

[ 9 ] 薛澜, 周源, 李应博, 等. 战略性新兴产业创新规律与产业政策研究( 白皮书)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2015.
Xue L, Zhou Y, Li Y B, et al. Strategic emerging industries and industrial policy research on innovation [M]. Science press, 2015. Chinese.

[10] Lee S, Seol H. Using patent information for designing new product and technology: Keyword based technology roadmapping [J]. R&D Management, 2008, 38(2): 169–188. 链接1

[11] Phaal R, O’Sullivan E, Routley M, et al. A framework for mapping industrial emergence [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2011, 78(2): 217–230. 链接1

[12] Daim T U, Rueda G, Martin H, et al. Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 73(8): 981–1012.
Daim T, Rueda G, Martin H, et al. Forecasting emerging technologies: use of bibliometrics and patent analysis [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 73 (8): 981–1012. 链接1

[13] 李欣, 黄鲁成. 基于文献计量的染料敏化太阳能光伏技术可视化分析[J]. 情报杂志, 2013, 32(12): 98–103.
Li X, Huang L C. Visualization analysis of dye-sensitized solar cells technology based on bibliometric [J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2013, 32 (12): 98–103. Chinese. 链接1

[14] Jun S, Lee S J. Emerging technology forecasting using new patent information analysis [J]. International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications, 2012, 6(3): 107–114. 链接1

[15] Kim Y G, Suh J H, Park S C. Visualization of patent analysis for emerging technology [J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2008, 34(3): 1804–1812. 链接1

[16] 张嶷, 汪雪峰, 郭颖, 等. 基于文献计量学方法的技术路线图构建模型研究[J]. 科学学研究, 2012, 30(4): 495–502.
Zhang Y, Wang X F, Guo Y, et al. Technology roadmap to construct model based on the method of literature metrology research [J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2012, 30 (4): 495–502. Chinese. 链接1

[17] 郭颖, 汪雪峰, 朱东华, 等. “ 自顶向下” 的科技规划—基于专利数据和技术路线图的新方法[J]. 科学学研究 , 2012, 30(3): 349–358.
Guo Y, Wang X F, Zhu D H, et al. “LIP-to-down” science and technology planning: a new approach based on the patent data and technology roadmapping [J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2012, 30 (3): 349–358. Chinese.

[18] Robinson D K R, Huang L, Guo Y, et al. Forecasting innovation pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, 80(2): 267–285.
Robinson D K R, Huang L, Guo Y, et al. Forecasting innovation pathways for new and emerging science and technologies [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, 80 (2): 267–285. 链接1

[19] 李欣, 黄鲁成. 基于技术路线图的新兴产业形成路径研究[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2014, 31(1): 44–49.
Li X, Huang L C. Emerging industry based on the technology roadmap forming path research [J]. Science and Technology Progress and Countermeasures, 2014, 31 (1): 44–49. Chinese. 链接1

[20] Li X, Zhou Y, Xue L, et al. Integrating bibliometrics and roadmapping methods: A case of dye-sensitized solar cell technology-based industry in China [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, 97: 205–222. 链接1

[21] 乔杨. 专利计量方法在技术预见中的应用—— 以国内冶金领域为例[J]. 情报杂志, 2013, 32(4): 34–37.
Qiao Y. Application of patent bibliometrics methods in technology foresight—take the subsection of metallurgy as an example [J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2013, 32 (4): 34–37. Chinese. 链接1

[22] 王金鹏. 基于科学计量的技术预见方法优化研究(硕士学位论文) [D]. 武汉: 华中师范大学, 2011.
Wang J P. Technology forecast method based on the scientific measurement optimization research [D]. Wuhan: Central China Normal University, 2011. Chinese. 链接1

[23] 崔志明, 万劲波, 浦根祥, 等. 技术预见与国家关键技术选择应遵循的基本原则[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2002, 23(12): 9–12.
Cui Z M, Wan J B, Pu G X, et al. The basic principles of technology foresight and national key—technology choice in China [J]. Science of Science and Management of S&T, 2002, 23 (12): 9–12. Chinese. 链接1

[24] 王旭超, 吴腾枫, 江小蓉, 等. 面向技术预测的专利情报分析实证研究[J]. 情报科学, 2014, 32(7): 139–144.
Wang X C, Wu T F, Jiang X R, et al. Empirical research on patent intelligence analysis oriented to technology forecast [J]. Information Science, 2014, 32 (7): 139–144. Chinese. 链接1

[25] 穆荣平, 任中保, 袁思达, 等. 中国未来20 年技术预见德尔菲调查方法研究[J]. 科研管理, 2006, 27(1): 1–7.
Mu R P, Ren Z B, Yuan S D, et al. The study on methodology of Delphi survey of technology foresight of China towards 2020 [J]. Journal of Scientific Research Management, 2006, 27 (1): 1–7. Chinese. 链接1

[26] 孙静芬, 袁建华, 赵滟, 等. 国外航天未来发展技术预见实施研究[J]. 中国航天, 2015(10): 37–41.
Sun J F, Yuan J H, Zhao Y, et al. Research on foreign aerospace technology to foresee the future development [J]. Aerospace Chinese, 2015 (10): 37–41. Chinese. 链接1

[27] Zhang Y, Zhang G Q, Chen H S, et al. Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research [J].
Zhang Y, Zhang G Q, Chen H S, et al. Topical analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: methodology with a case study focusing on big data research [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, 105: 179–191.

[28] Wang X F, Qiu P J, Zhu D H, et al. Identification of technology development trends based on subject–action–object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells [J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, 98: 24–46. 链接1

[29] Nassirtoussi A K, Aghabozorgi S, Wah T Y, et al. Text mining of news-headlines for FOREX market prediction: A Multi-layer dimension reduction algorithm with semantics and sentiment[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2015, 42(1): 306–324. 链接1

[30] Keppell M. Principles at the heart of an instructional designer: Subject matter expert interaction [C]// Sims R, O’ Reilley M, Sawkins S, et al. Learning to choose—Choosing to learn. Proceedings of the 17th Annual Conference of the Australasion Society for Computers in Learning in Tertiary Education, 2000, Coffs Harbour, NSW. Australia: ASCILITE, 2000: 317–326.
Keppell M. Principles at the heart of an instructional designer: subject matter expert interaction [C]. In: Sims R, O’ Reilley M, Sawkins S, et al. Learning to choose—choosing to learn. Proceedings of the 17th annual conference of the Australasian Society for computers in learning in tertiary education, 2000, Coffs Harbour, NSW. Australia: ASCILITE, 2000: 317–326. 链接1

[31] Quiamzade A, Mugny G, Cléopas A D, et al. Interaction styles and expert social influence [J]. European Journal of Psychology of Education, 2003, 18(4): 389–404. 链接1

[32] Lee M F, Mehlenbacher B. Technical writer/subject-matter expert interaction: The writer’s perspective, the organizational challenge [J]. Technical Communication, 2000, 47(4): 544–552. 链接1

[33] Kenny P G, Parsons T D, Gratch J, et al. Evaluation of novice and expert interpersonal interaction skills with a virtual patient [J]. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2009, 5773: 511–512. 链接1

相关研究