美国NRC颠覆性技术持续预测系统浅析

2018年第20卷第6期

摘要

关键词

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《中国工程科学》 >> 2018年第20卷第6期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019

美国NRC颠覆性技术持续预测系统浅析

中国工程物理研究院科技信息中心，四川绵阳 621900

资助项目：中国工程院咨询项目“颠覆性技术发展路径研究”(2017-XZ-42) 收稿日期： 2018-10-25 修回日期： 2018-11-09 发布日期： 2018-12-31

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摘要

美国国家研究委员会（NRC）发布的《颠覆性技术持续性预测》（Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies）研究报告对颠覆性技术预测的关键问题进行了分析，提出了理想的颠覆性技术持续预测系统模型。本文在此基础上，总结了颠覆性技术预测的内涵和挑战，给出了理想的持续性预测系统的属性，并对理想系统模型及实现的功能进行了分析，最后提出了颠覆性技术预测方法研究的启示，以期为我国相关研究工作提供参考与借鉴。

关键词

颠覆性技术 ; 持续预测 ; 理想系统

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参考文献

[ 1 ] 马利彬, 刁天喜, 房彤宇. 颠覆性技术识别方法研究与应用分析 [J]. 军事医学, 2018, 42(1): 4–8. Ma L B, Diao T X, Fang T Y. Research and application of disruptive technology identification methods [J]. Military Medical Sciences, 2018, 42(1): 4–8.
Ma L B, Diao T X, Fang T Y. Research and application of disruptive technologies identification methods [J]. Military Medical Sciences, 2018, 42(1): 4–8. Chinese. 链接1

[ 2 ] 王超, 许海云, 方曙. 颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展 [J]. 科技进步与对策, 2018, 35(9): 152–159. Wang C, Xu H Y, Fang S. Progress of approaches for identification and forecasting of disruptive technologies [J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2018, 35(9): 152–159.
Wang C, Xu H Y, Fang S. Progress of approaches for identification and forecasting of disruptive technologies [J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 2018, 35(9): 152–159. Chinese. 链接1

[ 3 ] National Intelligence Council. Global trends paradox of progess [R]. Virginia: National Intelligence Council, 2017.
National Intelligence Council. Global trends paradox of progress [R]. Virginia: National Intelligence Council, 2017.

[ 4 ] Center for a New American Security. Game changers disruptive technology and U.S. defense strategy [R]. Washington DC: Center for a New American Security, 2013.
Center for a New American Security. Game changers disruptive technologies and U.S. defense strategy [R]. Washington DC: Center for a New American Security, 2013.

[ 5 ] McKinsey. Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy [R]. Chicago: McKinsey, 2013.

[ 6 ] National Research Council (NRC), Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies. Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies [R]. Washington DC: National Academies Press, 2010.