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《中国工程科学》 >> 2019年 第21卷 第1期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.01.010

2035年中国能源与矿产资源需求展望

1. 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京 100037;

2. 中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京 100037

资助项目 :中国地质调查局地质调查项目“中国铁铜铝等资源循环调查评价”(121201103000150015),国家自然科学基金重点项目“经济新常态下的国家金属资源安全管理及其政策研究”(71633006) 收稿日期: 2019-01-06 修回日期: 2019-01-18

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摘要

进入21世纪,中国能源和矿产资源消费快速增长,许多重要矿产消费量甚至超过了全球消费总量的一半。未来中长期资源需求预测是国家政策制定和战略规划的重要依据。本文基于中国人口、国内生产总值(GDP)、矿产资源消费量等历史统计数据,选择了人均消费“S”形规律、需求类比和比例关系测算法、部门消费法等方法,对2035年之前43种(类)主要矿产资源的需求量进行了系统预测。结果显示:我国矿产资源需求从全面高速增长向差异化增长转变,2025年前多数大宗矿产将陆续达到需求峰值,2030年一次能源达到需求峰值时的结构会发生重大变化,煤炭将从2017年的60.4%下降到46.3%,天然气将从6.6%增加到13.2%,非化石能源将从13.6%增长到23.4%,2035年大部分战略性新兴矿产仍将保持需求增长,全球供需结构和供需格局都将发生极大改变。

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