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《中国工程科学》 >> 2019年 第21卷 第5期 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.05.007

北京市城乡节能节水政策中长期耦合效果分析

1. 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京师范大学环境学院,北京 100875;

2. 北京市流域环境生态修复与综合调控工程技术研究中心,北京 100875

收稿日期 :2019-08-20 修回日期 :2019-08-30

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摘要

本文基于长期能源可替代规划系统模型(LEAP)与水资源评价和规划模型(WEAP)建立了城市的能水耦合模型,设立情景分析探讨北京市未来不同措施下城乡的节能/ 节水以及其耦合效果,并对结果进行敏感性分析。模型结果表明,未来北京市能源消费总量将逐年缓慢增长;按预测的供水能力则不会出现供需短缺。“十三五”期间节水政策的总节能量为1.003×106 tce,节能政策的节水量达到2.76×108 m3。居民生活、服务业、建筑业、传统制造业的能源需求值与水需求值具有较好的相关性,是重要的能水耦合部门。对于不同情景不同时期的节能/ 节水效果而言,产业结构优化政策在短期可表现出较好的节能潜力;农业部门的灌溉技术革新与种植结构优化情景,在短期具有较好的节能与节水效果。对于能水节约的协同效应,其在服务业与工业部门节能情景中较明显;对于同一个部门的政策,调控用能强度的情景能水协同节约效应较明显。

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