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《中国工程科学》 >> 2006年 第8卷 第2期

森林火险与气象因素的多元相关性及其分析

1.中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,合肥 230026

2.National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster,Tokyo,Japan

资助项目 :国家自然科学基金资助项目(30400344);国家重点基础研究发展计划“九七三”资助项目(2001CB409600) 收稿日期: 2004-11-25 发布日期: 2006-02-20

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摘要

森林火灾发生概率预测涉及气象、树种、地理条件与人类活动等诸因素,气象参数对火灾的影响一直是森林火灾研究的重点之一。选用日平均湿度、降水量、平均风速、平均温度和日照时间等5种典型气象参数,利用BP神经网络分析了它们对火灾发生概率的综合影响;研究了多种气象参数综合作用下火灾发生概率的变化规律。结果表明,气象参数与火灾发生概率之间存在稳定的关联,神经网络在处理多参数综合影响方面具有较好的泛化能力,可以作为预测林火概率的可靠方法,为森林火灾研究提供了基础数据。

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