风险矩阵法在武器装备采办风险评估中的运用
1.中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京 100080
2.中国科学技术大学商学院,合肥 230026
3.第二炮兵装备研究院,北京 100085
下一篇 上一篇
摘要
在对国外广泛采用的风险矩阵评估方法进行全面分析和系统总结的基础上,对风险矩阵方法在我国武器装备采办风险评估中的运用进行了探讨,并从风险影响和风险概率两个准则入手,以某武器型号采办为例示范性地进行了风险评估,从而为制定科学合理的武器装备采办风险管理提供决策依据。
参考文献
[ 1 ] 邹国晨, 赵澄谋, 邱衡.武器装备采办管理[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2003.6~10
[ 2 ] Garvey P R, Lansdowne Z F.Risk matrix:an approachfor identifying, assessing, and ranking program risks[J]Air Force Journal of Logistics, 1998, 22 (1) :16~23
[ 3 ] Willhite M A.Establishing a Program Risk Baseline, anAnnotated Briefing[R].Bedford:The MITRECorporation, 1998.1~10
[ 4 ] Engert P A, .Lansdowne Z F.Risk Matrix User s Guide[R].Bedford:The MITRE Corporation, 1999.18~39
[ 5 ] Cook W D, Seiford L M.On the borda-kendall consensusmethod for priority ranking problems[J].ManagementScience, 1982, 28:621~637
[ 6 ] Lansdowne Z F.Ordinal ranking methods for multicriteriondecision making[J].Naval Research Logistics, 1996, 43:613~627
[ 7 ] Lansdowne Z F, Woodward B S.Applying the bordaranking method[J].Air Force Journal of Logistics, 1996, 20 (2) :27~29
[ 8 ] Fishburn P C, Gehrlein W V.Borda s rule, positionalvoting, and condorcet s simple majority principle[J].Public Choice, 1976, 28:79~88 链接1
[ 9 ] Van Newenhizen J.The borda method is most likely torespect the condorcet principle[J].Economic Theory, 1992, 2:69~83 链接1
[10] Saari D G.Geometry of Voting[M].New York:Springer-Verlag Press, 1994.23~35
[11] Defense Acquisition University Defense SystemsManagement College.Risk Management Guide for DoDAcquisition (Fourth Edition) [M].Virginia:DefenseSystems Management College Press, 1998.29~33
[12] 管清波, 罗小明, 杜红梅.模糊综合评判法在装备采办风险评价中的运用研究[J].装备指挥技术学院学报, 2002, 13 (4) :18~20 链接1
[13] Defense Acquisition University (DAU) .Risk ManagementGuide for DOD Acquisition[M].Virginia:DefenseSystems Management College Press, 2001.5~9
[14] Bailey R O.Analysis of Current Department of DefenseRisk Management Practices in Weapon System Acquisition:A Case Study of the Advanced Amphibious Assualt VehiclePDRR and SDD Risk Management Practices[D].California:Naval Postgraduate School, 2003
[15] RossJ P.A Risk Management Model for the FederalAcquisition Process[D].California:Naval PostgraduateSchool, 1999
[16] Ansell J W.Risk:Analysis, Assessment, and Management[M].New York:New York Press, 1992.34~63