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《中国工程科学》 >> 2007年 第9卷 第10期

卡特里娜飓风的启示——有关海洋和水利工程的风险分析

中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛 266003

资助项目 :国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679076) 收稿日期: 2006-04-10 修回日期: 2006-06-01

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摘要

2005年卡特里娜(Katrina)和丽塔(Rita)飓风对美国新奥尔良市和佛罗里达东部海岸带来的灾难性破坏,验证了笔者在20世纪80年代初期提出的复合极值分布理论及其对上述海域飓风强度预测结果的正确性。以此为鉴,讨论了海岸、近海、水利和城市防灾工程中引入不确定性分析和多维联合概率理论进行风险分析的必要性。

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