[ 1 ] Houghton J T, Ding Y,Griggs G J, et al.Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change IPCC, 2001.The Scientific Basis.Contribution of Working Group One To The Third Assessment Report of The In- tergovernmental Panel of Climate Change[ M] .Cambridge: Cam- bridge University Press, 2001

[ 2 ] Stenseth N C,Mysterud A, Ottersen G, et al.Ecological effects of climate fluctuations[ J] .Science,2002 ,297 ( 23 ) :1292 -1296 链接1

[ 3 ] Mcnelly J A,Miller K R,Reid W V, et al.Conserving the World Biological Diversity[ M] .The World Bank, 1990

[ 4 ] Solbrig O T.From Genes to Ecosystems: A Research Agenda for Biodiversity[ M] .Cambridge,Mass, 1991

[ 5 ] 陈灵芝,马克平.生物多样性科学原理与实践[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2001:93-125

[ 6 ] Corn P S.Amphibian breeding and climate change: importance of snow in the mountains[ J] .Conservation Biology, 2003 ,17 ( 2 ) : 622 -625 链接1

[ 7 ] Blaustein A R, Root T L, Kiesecker J M,et al.Amphibian breed- ing and climate change: reply to corn [ J] .Conservation Biology, 2003 ,17 ( 2 ) :626 -627 链接1

[ 8 ] Mccarty J P.Ecological consequences of recent climate change [ J] .Conservation Biology, 2001 ,15 : 320 -331 链接1

[ 9 ] Crick H Q P, Dudley C, Glue D E, et al.UK birds are laying egg earlier[ J] .Nature, 1997 , 388 :526 链接1

[10] Oglesby R T, Smith C R.Climate changes in the northeast[ A] . Laroe E T, Farris G S, Puckett C E, et al eds.Our living re- sources: a report to the nation on the distribution abundance and health of U S.plants animals, and ecosystem [ R] .U.S.depart- ment of the interior,national biological service,Washington,D C, 1995 , 390 -391

[11] Bradley N L,Leopold A C,Ross J,et al.Phenological change reflect climate change in Wisconsin[ J] .Preoceeding of National Acade- my Of Science U.S.A, 1999 ,96 :9701 -9704 链接1

[12] Nilson A, Kiviste A, Korjus H, et al.Impact of recent forestry and adaptation tools[ J] .Climate Research,1999 ,12 :205 -214

[13] Niemela P, Chapin III F S, Danell K, et al.Herbivory -media- ted responses of selected boreal forests to climate change [ J ] . Climate Change,2001 ,48 :427 -440 链接1

[14] Mckenney -Easterling M, Dewalle D R, Iverson L R, et al.The potential impacts of climate change and variability on forests and forestry in the mid -atlantic region[ J] .Climate Research,2000 , 14 :195 -206 链接1

[15] Epstein H E, Gill R A, Paruelo J M, et al.The relative abun- dance of three plant functional types in temperate grassland and shurblands of north and south America: effects of projected cli- mate change[ J] .Journal of Biogeography,2002 :29 :875 -888 链接1

[16] Lasch P, Lindner M, Erhard M, et al.Regional impacts assess- ment on forest structure and functions under climate change -the brandenburg case study [ J ] .Forest Ecology and Management, 2002 ,162 :73 -86 链接1

[17] Mcunlty S G, Aber J D.US national climate change assessment on forest ecosystem : an introduction [ J ] .Bioscience, 2001 , 51 ( 9 ) :720 -722 链接1

[18] Ni Jian.Global change and wild species:observations and predic- tions[ J] .生物多样性,1999 ,7 ( 2 ) :132 -139 链接1

[19] 彭少麟,李勤奋,任海.全球变化对野生动物的影响[J].生态学报,2002,22(7):1153-1159 链接1

[20] Iverson L R, Prasad A M.Potential change in tree species rich- ness and forest community types following climate change[ J] .E- cosystem,2001 , 4 :186 -199 链接1

[21] Currie D J.Projected effects of climate change on patterns of ver- tebrate and tree species richness in the conterminous united states [ J] .Ecosystems,2001 ,4 :216 -225 链接1

[22] Hansen A J, Neilson R P, Dale V H, et al.Global change in for- ests: response of species, communities, and biomes [ J ] .Biosci- ence, 2001 ,51 ( 9 ) :765 -779 链接1

[23] Bezemer T M, Knight K J.Unpredictable response of garden snail ( helix aspersa) populations to climate change[ J] .Acta Oecologi- ca, 2001 ,22 :201 -208 链接1

[24] Gottfried M, Pauli H, Reiter K, et al.Potential effects of climate change on alpine and nival plants in the alps[ A] .in K迸rner C, Sphn E .Mountain Biodiversity:A Global Assessment[ C] .Boca Raton :The Parthenon Publishing Group,2002 :213 -223 链接1

[25] Halloy S R P.Variation in community structure and growth rates of high -andean plants with climatic fluctuations[ A] .in K? rner C, Sphn E.Mountain Biodiversity: A Global Assessment [ C ] . Boca Raton :The Parthenon Publishing Group,2002 :225 -237

[26] Green K, Pickering M.A scenario for mammal and bird diversity in the snowy mountains of Australia in relation to climate change [ A] .K迸rner C, Sphn E .Mountain Biodiversity:A Global As- sessment[ C ] .Boca Raton : The Parthenon Publishing Group,2002 :239 -247

[27] Mcdonald D J, Midgley G F, Powrie L.Scenarios of plant diversi- ty in south African mountain ranges in relation to climate change [ A] .in K迸rner C, Sphn E .Mountain Biodiversity:A Global As- sessment[ C ] .Boca Raton : The Parthenon Publishing Group, 2002 :261 -266 链接1

[28] Purobit A N.Biodiversity in mountain medicinal plants and possi- ble impacts of climate change[ A] .K迸rner C, Sphn E .Mountain Biodiversity:A Global Assessment[ C] .Boca Raton :The Parthe- non Publishing Group,2002 :267 -273 链接1

[29] Zogg G P,Zak D R,Ringelberg D B.Compositional and functional shifts in microbial communities due to soil warming[ J] .Soil Sci- ence Society of America Journal ,1997 ,61 :475 -481 链接1

[30] Johns C V, Hughes L .Interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the leaf -miner dialectica scalariella zeller( lepi- doptera:gracillariidae) in paterson’ s curse,echium plantagineum ( boraginaceae) [ J] .Global Change Biology,2002 ,8 :142 -152 链接1

[31] Fleming R A,Tatchell G M.Shifts in flight period of British a- phids : a response to climate warming [ A] .In Harrington R, Stork N E.Insects in A Changing Environmental[ C] .New York: Academic Presss, 1995 ,505 -508

[32] Jaenike J.Time -delayed effects of climate variation on host - parasite dynamics[ J] .Ecology ,2002 ,83 ( 4 ) :917 -924 链接1

[33] Stacey D A, Fellowes M E.Influence of elevated CO2 on interspe- cific interactions at highertrophic levels[ J] .Global Change Biolo- gy,2002 ,8 :668 -678 链接1

[34] Harvell C D,Mitchell C E, Ward J R, et al.Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota [ J] .Science,2002 , 296 ( 21 ) :2158 -2162 链接1

[35] Kudo G, Suzuki S.Warming effects on growth, production and vegetation structure of alpine shrub: a five -year experiment in northern japan[ J] .Oecologia,2003 ,135 :280 -287 链接1

[36] Wolters V, Silver W H, Bignell D E, et al.Effects of global changes on above and belowground biodiversity in terrestrial eco- systems:implications for ecosystem functioning [ J ] .Bioscience, 2000 ,50 ( 12 ) :1089 -1098 链接1

[37] Dale V H,Joyce L A,Mcnulty S,et al.Climate change and forest disturbances[ J] .Bioscience, 2001 ,51 ( 9 ) :723 -734

[38] Adams G A, Wall D H.Biodiversity above and below the surface of soils and sediments:linkages and implications for global change [ J] .Bioscience,2000 ,50 ( 12 ) :1043 -1048 链接1

[39] Thomas C D, Cameronl A, Green R E,et al.Extinction risk from climate change[ J] .Nature, 2004 , 427 : 145 -148 链接1

[40] Hersteinsson P, Macdonald D W.Interspecific competition and the geographical distribution of red and arctic foxes vulpe vulpes and alopex lagopus[ J] .Oikos,1992 ,64 :505 -515 链接1

[41] Parmesan C, Ryholm N, Stefanescu C, et al.Poleward shifts in geographical range of butterfly species associated with regional warming[ J] .Nature,1999 ,399 :579 -583 链接1

[42] Duckworth J C,Bunce R G H, Malloch A J C.Modelling the po- tential effects of climate change on calcareous grasslands in atlatic Europe[ J] .Journal of Biogeography, 2000 , 27 :347 -358 链接1

[43] Malcolm J R, Markham A,Neilson R P, et al.Estimated migra- tion rates under scenarios of global climate change[ J] .Journal of Biogeography, 2002 ,29 :835 -849 链接1

[44] Lemone N,Böhning -Gaese K.Potential impacts of global climate change on species richness of long -distance migrants [ J] .Con- servation Biology,2003 ,17 ( 2 ) :577 -586

[45] TéLlez -Valdés O,Dávila -Aranda P.Protected areas and cli- mate change: a case study of the cacti in the tehuacán -cuicatlán biosphere reserve, méxico [ J ] .Conservation Biology, 2003 , 17 ( 3 ) :846 -853

[46] Shafer S L, Bartlein P J, Thompson R S.Potential changes in the distributions of western north America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios[ J] .Ecosystems,2001 ,4 :200 -215 链接1

[47] Crozier L.Winter warming facilitates range expansion:cold toler- ance of butterfly atalopedes campestris [ J ] .Oecologia, 2003 , 135 :648 -656 链接1

[48] Erasmus B F N,Vanjaarsveld A, Chown S, et al.Vulnerabllity of south African animal taxa to climate change [ J] .Global Change Biology,2002 ,8 :679 -693 链接1

[49] Lexer M J, Honninger K, Scheifinger H,et al.The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change: a large -scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest invento- ry data[ J] .Forest Ecology and Management, 2002 ,162 :53 -72 链接1

[50] Dyer J M.Assessment of climatic warming using a model of forest species migration[ J] .Ecological Modeling, 1995 ,79 :199 -219 链接1

[51] Sutherst R W.Climate change and invasive species:a conceptual framework[ A] .in Mooney H A,Hobbs R J .Invasive Species in A Changing World[ C] .Washington D C:Island Press, 2000 : 211 -240 链接1

[52] Dukes J S.Will the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration af- fect the success of invasive species[ A] .in Mooney H A,Hobbs R J .Invasive Species in A Changing World[ C] .Washington,D C:Island Press, 2000 :95 -113 链接1

[53] Pounds J A,Fogden M P L, Savage J M, et al.Biological respon- ses to climate change on a tropical mountain [ J] .Nature, 1999 , 398 :611 -615 链接1

[54] Brown J H,Valone T J,Curtin C G.Reorganization of an arid eco- system in response to recent climate change [ J] .Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 1997 ,94 : 9729 -9733 链接1

[55] Brereton R, Bennett S,Mansergh I.Enhanced greenhouse climate change and its potential effects on selected fauna of south -east- ern Australia: a trend analysis [ J ] . Biological Conservation, 1995 ,72 :339 -354 链接1

[56] Pounds J A,Puschendorf R.Ecology, Clouded futures [ J] .Na- ture, 2004 ,427 , 107 -109

[57] Enquist C A F.Predicted Regional impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and diversity of tropical forests in Costa rica[ J] .Journal of Biogeography, 2002 ,29 :519 -534 链接1

[58] Mckenzie D, Peterson D W, Peterson D L, et al.Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington,USA[ J] .Journal of Biogeography, 2003 ,30 :1093 -1108 链接1

[59] Urban D L, Harmon M E, Halpern C B.Potential response of pa- cific northwestern forests to climate change :effects of stand age and initial composition [ J] .Climatic Change, 1993 , 23 : 247 - 266 链接1

[60] Kullman L.20 th century climate warming and tree -limit rise in the southern scandes of Sweden[ J] .Ambio,2001 ,30 ( 2 ) :72 - 80 链接1

[61] Peňuelas J, Boada M A.Global change -induced biome shift in the montseny mountains ( spain ) [ J ] .Global Change Biology, 2003 ,9 :131 -140 链接1

[62] Venier L A, Mckenney D W, Wang Y, et al.Models of large - scale breeding -bird distribution as a function of macro -climate in Ontario[ J] .Canada Journal of Biogeography, 1999 ,26 :315 -328 链接1

[63] Chapin F S III, Shaver G R, Goblin A E, et al.Response of arc- tic tundra to experimental and observed change in climate[ J] .E- cology, 1995 ,76 : 694 -711 链接1

[64] Alward R D, Detling J K, Milchunas D G.Grassland vegetation change and nocturnal global warming [ J] .Science, 1999 , 283 : 229 -231 链接1

[65] Phillips O L.Long -term environmental change in tropical for- ests: increasing tree turnover [ J ] .Environmental Conservation, 1996 ,23 :235 -248 链接1

[66] Ehman J E, Fan W H, Randolph J C, et al.An integrated GIS and modeling approach for assessing the transient response of for- ests of the southern great lakes region to a doubled CO2 climate [ J] .Forest Ecology and Management, 2002 ,155 : 237 -255 链接1

[67] Arnell N W, Cannel M G R, Hulme M, et al.The consequences of CO2 stabilistation for the impacts of climate change [ J] .Cli- matic Change, 2002 ,53 :413 -446 链接1

[68] 延晓冬,符淙斌,ShugartHH.气候变化对小兴安岭森林影响的模拟研究[J].植物生态学报,2000,24(3):312-319 链接1

[69] Gao Q,Yu M,Yang X.An analysis of sensitivity of terrestrial eco- systems in china toclimate change using spatial simulation [ J ] . Climate Change, 2000 ,47 :373 -400 链接1

[70] Rogers C E, Mccarty J P.Climate change and ecosystems of mid -atlantic region[ J] .Climate Research, 2000 ,14 :235 -244 链接1

[71] Van Der Meer P J, Jorritsma I T M, Kramer K.Assessing climate change effects on long - term forest development: adjusting growth,phenology,and seed production in a gap model[ J] .Forest Ecology And Management, 2002 ,162 :39 -52 链接1

[72] Weltzin J, Bridgham S, Pastor J, et al.Potential effects of war- ming and drying on peatland plant community composition [ J] . Global Change Biology, 2003 ,9 :141 -151 链接1

[73] Thuiller W.Biomod -optimizing predictions of species distribu- tions and projecting potential future shifts under global change [ J] .Global Change Biology, 2003 ,9 :1353 -1362 链接1

[74] Pearson R G, Dawson T P.Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful[ J ] .Global Ecology & Biogeography, 2003 , 12 : 361 -371 链接1