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Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年 第4卷 第4期   页码 459-468 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0119-5

摘要： An assessment of the energy demand and the potential for sector-based emission reductions will provide necessary background information for policy makers. In this paper, Beijing was selected as a special case for analysis in order to assess the energy demand and potential of CO abatement in the urban transport system of China. A mathematical model was developed to generate three scenarios for the urban transport system of Beijing from 2010 to 2030. The best pattern was identified by comparing the three different scenarios and assessing their urban traffic patterns through cost information. Results show that in the high motorization-oriented pattern scenario, total energy demand is about 13.94% higher, and the average CO abatement per year is 3.38 million tons less than in the reference scenario. On the other hand, in the bus and rail transit-oriented scenario, total energy demand is about 11.57% less, and the average CO abatement is 2.8 million tons more than in the reference scenario. Thus, Beijing cannot and should not follow the American pattern of high motorization-oriented transport system but learn from the experience of developed cities of Europe and East Asia.

关键词： scenario analysis     urban traffic pattern     energy demand     reduction potential    

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Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Fangfang ZHANG, Huiquan LI, Bo CHEN, Xue GUAN, Yi ZHANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第2期   页码 256-266 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0585-1

摘要： Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the characteristics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis (SFA) framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA framework and the qualitative analysis of technology advancement and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.

关键词： metabolism     vanadium industry     substance flow analysis     scenario analysis    

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Scenario analysis of water pollution control in the typical peri-urban river using a coupled hydrodynamic-water

Haifeng JIA, Shuo WANG, Mingjie WEI, Yansong ZHANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年 第5卷 第2期   页码 255-265 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0279-x

摘要： The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth. In the study, a typical peri-urban river, Nansha River, was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation. Located in the north part of the Beijing central region, the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones. However, the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources (NPS) and point sources (PS). In this study, the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed. A coupled model, derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program, was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River. According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river, three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses. Based on the results of the scenario analysis, a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.

关键词： peri-urban river     coupled hydrodynamic-water quality modeling     scenario analysis     river rehabilitation    

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Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity

Yilei Lu, Yunqing Huang, Siyu Zeng, Can Wang

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第2期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-019-1200-x

摘要： Impact of urban development on water system is assessed with carrying capacity. Impacts on both water resource quantity and environmental quality are involved. Multi-objective optimization revealing system trade-off facilitate the regulation. Efficiency, scale and structure of urban development are regulated in two stages. A roadmap approaching more sustainable development is provided for the case city. Environmental impact assessments and subsequent regulation measures of urban development plans are critical to human progress toward sustainability, since these plans set the scale and structure targets of future socioeconomic development. A three-step methodology for assessing and optimizing an urban development plan focusing on its impacts on the water system was developed. The methodology first predicted the pressure on the water system caused by implementation of the plan under distinct scenarios, then compared the pressure with the carrying capacity threshold to verify the system status; finally, a multi-objective optimization method was used to propose regulation solutions. The methodology enabled evaluation of the water system carrying state, taking socioeconomic development uncertainties into account, and multiple sets of improvement measures under different decisionmaker preferences were generated. The methodology was applied in the case of Zhoushan city in South-east China. The assessment results showed that overloading problems occurred in 11 out of the 13 zones in Zhoushan, with the potential pressure varying from 1.1 to 18.3 times the carrying capacity. As a basic regulation measure, an environmental efficiency upgrade could relieve the overloading in 4 zones and reduce 9%‒63% of the pressure. The optimization of industrial development showed that the pressure could be controlled under the carrying capacity threshold if the planned scale was reduced by 24% and the industrial structure was transformed. Various regulation schemes including a more suitable scale and structure with necessary efficiency standards are provided for decisionmakers that can help the case city approach a more sustainable development pattern.

关键词： Urban development plan     Urban water system     Carrying capacity     Scenario analysis     Multi-objective optimization    

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Robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization in a scenario-based position–time–speed network

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第4期   页码 595-614 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0173-1

摘要： Train speed profile optimization is an efficient approach to reducing energy consumption in urban rail transit systems. Different from most existing studies that assume deterministic parameters as model inputs, this paper proposes a robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization approach by considering the uncertainty of train modeling parameters. Specifically, we first construct a scenario-based position–time–speed (PTS) network by considering resistance parameters as discrete scenario-based random variables. Then, a percentile reliability model is proposed to generate a robust train speed profile, by which the scenario-based energy consumption is less than the model objective value at α confidence level. To solve the model efficiently, we present several algorithms to eliminate the infeasible nodes and arcs in the PTS network and propose a model reformulation strategy to transform the original model into an equivalent linear programming model. Lastly, on the basis of our field test data collected in Beijing metro Yizhuang line, a series of experiments are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the model and analyze the influences of parameter uncertainties on the generated train speed profile.

关键词： robust train speed profile     percentile reliability model     scenario-based position–time–speed network     mixed-integer programming    

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China’s pre-2020 CO

Hailin WANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第3期   页码 571-578 doi: 10.1007/s11708-019-0640-0

摘要： China achieved the reduction of CO intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.

关键词： China’s National Determined Contribution     emission reduction potential     scenario analysis     CO2 emissions peak    

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Thermal fluid-structure interaction and coupled thermal-stress analysis in a cable stayed bridge exposed

Nazim Abdul NARIMAN

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年 第12卷 第4期   页码 609-628 doi: 10.1007/s11709-018-0452-z

摘要： In this paper, thermal fluid structure-interaction (TFSI) and coupled thermal-stress analysis are utilized to identify the effects of transient and steady-state heat-transfer on the vortex induced vibration and fatigue of a segmental bridge deck due to fire incidents. Numerical simulations of TFSI models of the deck are dedicated to calculate the lift and drag forces in addition to determining the lock-in regions once using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) models and another using TFSI models. Vorticity and thermal convection fields of three fire scenarios are simulated and analyzed. Simiu and Scanlan benchmark is used to validate the TFSI models, where a good agreement was manifested between the two results. Extended finite element method (XFEM) is adopted to create 3D models of the cable stayed bridge to simulate the fatigue of the deck considering three fire scenarios. Choi and Shin benchmark is used to validate the damaged models of the deck in which a good coincide was seen between them. The results revealed that TFSI models and coupled thermal-stress models are significant in detecting earlier vortex induced vibration and lock-in regions in addition to predicting damages and fatigue of the deck due to fire incidents.

关键词： fire scenario     transient heat transfer     TFSI model     coupled thermal-stress     XFEM    

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Seismic progressive-failure analysis of tall steel structures under beam-removal scenarios

Behrouz BEHNAM, Fahimeh SHOJAEI, Hamid Reza RONAGH

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第4期   页码 904-917 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0525-7

摘要： Investigating progressive collapse of tall structures under beam removal scenarios after earthquake is a complex subject because the earthquake damage acts as an initial condition for the subsequent scenario. An investigation is performed here on a 10 story steel moment resisting structure designed to meet the life safety level of performance when different beam removal scenarios after earthquake are considered. To this end, the structure is first subjected to the design earthquake simulated by Tabas earthquake acceleration. The beam removal scenarios are then considered at different locations assuming that both ends connections of the beam to columns are simultaneously detached from the columns; thus the removed beam falls on the underneath floor with an impact. This imposes considerable loads to the structure leading to a progressive collapse in all the scenarios considered. The results also show that the upper stories are much more vulnerable under such scenarios than the lower stories. Hence, more attention shall be paid to the beam-to-column connections of the upper stories during the process of design and construction.

关键词： progressive collapse     tall steel moment-resisting frames     non-linear dynamic analysis     beam-removal scenario     impact    

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Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study of Tianjin city

Junying CHU, Hao WANG, Can WANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2013年 第7卷 第5期   页码 688-698 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0559-3

摘要： Reforms of the water pricing management system and the establishment of a flexible water pricing system are significant for cities in northern China to tackle their critical water issues. The WATAP (Water conservation Technology Adoption Processes) model is developed in order to capture the water conservation technology adoption process under different price scenarios with disaggregate water demands down to the end use level. This model is explicitly characterized by the technological selection process under maximum marginal benefit assumption by different categories of households. In particular, when households need to purchase water devices in the provision market with the consideration of complex factors such as the life span, investment and operating costs of the device, as well as the regulated water price by the government. Applied to Tianjin city, four scenarios of water price evolutions for a long-term perspective (from year 2011 to 2030) are considered, including BAU (Business As Usual), SP1 (Scenario of Price increase with constant annual rate), SP2 (Scenario of Price increase every four years) and SP3 (Scenario of Price increase with affordable constraint), considering many factors such as historic trends, affordability and incentives for conservation. Results show that on aggregate 2.3%, 11.0% and 18.2% of fresh water can be saved in the residential sector in scenario SP1, SP2 and SP3, respectively, compared with the BAU scenario in the year 2030. The water price signals can change the market shares of different water appliances, as well as the water end use structure of households, and ultimately improve water use efficiency. The WATAP model may potentially be a helpful tool to provide insights for policy makers on water conservation technology policy analysis and assessment.

关键词： technology selection     model optimization     water price     scenario analysis     consumer behavior    

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我国“城市矿山”开发利用战略研究

孙笑非,钱易,温宗国,刘丽丽,单桂娟,李金惠

《中国工程科学》 2017年 第19卷 第4期   页码 97-102 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.04.015

摘要：

我国人均矿产资源严重不足，重要矿产资源对外依存度越来越高。“城市矿山”可作为再生资源循环利用，这是实现经济可持续发展的新方向。本文概述了“城市矿山”的由来、内涵，分析了2006―2016年我国十大类“城市矿山”资源的回收、利用和发展情况，预测了废旧钢铁、有色金属、电子废物、报废汽车等典型“城市矿山”的开发利用潜力，评估了其开发利用在节约资源、保护环境、碳减排和拉动经济方面的贡献，并提出了我国“城市矿山”开发利用的战略及相关政策建议。

关键词： “城市矿山”     循环经济     资源节约潜力     情景分析    

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EXPLORING THE RECYCLING OF MANURE FROM URBAN LIVESTOCK FARMS: A CASE STUDY IN ETHIOPIA

Solomon Tulu TADESSE, Oene OENEMA, Christy van BEEK, Fikre Lemessa OCHO

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期   页码 159-174 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2020375

摘要： Urban population growth is driving the expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) in developing countries. UPA is providing nutritious food to residents but the manures produced by UPA livestock farms and other wastes are not properly recycled. This paper explores the effects of four scenarios: (1) a reference scenario (business as usual), (2) increased urbanization, (3) UPA intensification, and (4) improved technology, on food-protein self-sufficiency, manure nitrogen (N) recycling and balances for four different zones in a small city (Jimma) in Ethiopia during the period 2015-2050. An N mass flow model with data from farm surveys, field experiments and literature was used. A field experiment was conducted and N use efficiency and N fertilizer replacement values differed among the five types of composts derived from urban livestock manures and kitchen wastes. The N use efficiency and N fertilizer replacement values were used in the N mass flow model. Livestock manures were the main organic wastes in urban areas, although only 20 to 40% of animal-sourced food consumed was produced in UPA, and only 14 to 19% of protein intake by residents was animal-based. Scenarios indicate that manure production in UPA will increase 3 to 10 times between 2015 and 2050, depending on urbanization and UPA intensification. Only 13 to 38% of manure N will be recycled in croplands. Farm-gate N balances of UPA livestock farms will increase to>1 t·ha in 2050. Doubling livestock productivity and feed protein conversion to animal-sourced food will roughly halve manure N production. Costs of waste recycling were high and indicate the need for government incentives. Results of these senarios are wake-up calls for all stakeholders and indicate alternative pathways.

关键词： compost     food self-sufficiency     livestock production     nitrogen balance     nitrogen use efficiency     scenario analysis    

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SWMM-based methodology for block-scale LID-BMPs planning based on site-scale multi-objective optimization: a case study in Tianjin

Te Xu, Haifeng Jia, Zheng Wang, Xuhui Mao, Changqing Xu

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2017年 第11卷 第4期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-017-0934-6

摘要： Low impact development type of best management practices (LID-BMPs) aims to mitigate urban stormwater runoff and lessen pollutant loads in an economical and eco-friendly way and has become a global concern in modern urban stormwater management. A new methodology based on stormwater management model (SWMM) for block-scale LID-BMPs planning was developed. This method integrated LID-BMP chain layout optimization in site-scale parcels with scenario analysis in the entire block-scale urban area. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was successfully coupled to SWMM through Python to complete the site-scale optimization process. Different LID scenarios of the research area were designed on the basis of the optimized LID-BMP chain layout. A multi-index evaluation that considered runoff quantity indices, pollutant loads, and construction costs simultaneously helped select the cost-effective scenario as the final planning scheme. A case study in Tianjin, China, was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Results showed that more than 75% control rate of total runoff volume, 22%–46% peak flow reduction efficiency, and more than 32% pollutant removal rate were achieved. The robustness analysis indicated that the selected final planning scheme was considerably robust with varied weight values.

关键词： Stormwater management     LID-BMPs planning     SWMM     LID-BMP chain     NSGA-II     Scenario analysis    

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中部地区崛起的能源需求及碳达峰路径研究

程云鹤,董洪光,耿纪超,何继善

《中国工程科学》 2021年 第23卷 第1期   页码 68-78 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2021.01.014

摘要：

能源革命是经济、社会、环境协调可持续发展的内在要求，其实施需要与地区发展战略相结合，统筹规划、协同发展。本文运用 Kaya 恒等式，将中部地区崛起的能源消费需求分解为生产性、生活性两部分，考虑中部地区的国内生产总值（ GDP）增长、产业结构、城镇化、能源效率、人均收入、生活能源等驱动因素，构建中部地区崛起的能源需求情景，据此分析能源革命背景下的低碳发展路径。结果表明：随着城镇化、工业化发展路径的延续，中部地区 5 个省份的能源需求量将持续上升，2035 年能源需求总量约为 8.4×108~1.01×109 tce；构建多元能源供应体系将助力实现能源清洁低碳安全高效、支持 2030 年前实现碳排放拐点等目标。针对性提出发展建议：大力发展节能技术、清洁能源技术、可再生能源技术；优化产业结构，构建多能互补体系；加大能源体制改革，实现区域能源共济。

关键词： 能源革命     中部崛起     Kaya 恒等式     情景分析     碳达峰    

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我国电力碳达峰、碳中和路径研究

舒印彪,张丽英,张运洲,王耀华,鲁刚,元博,夏鹏

《中国工程科学》 2021年 第23卷 第6期   页码 1-14 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2021.06.001

摘要：

电力低碳转型对实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有全局性意义。本文在电力碳预算评估的基础上构建深度低碳、零碳、负碳 3 类电力转型情景，研判电力需求等关键边界条件，构建路径规划优化模型；采用 GESP-V 软件包进行优化分析，确定不同情景下包含电源结构、电力碳排放、电力供应成本在内的电力低碳转型路径；探讨并剖析煤电发展定位、新能源发展利用、清洁能源多元化供应、电力平衡等实现电力系统低碳转型亟待解决的重大问题。研究建议，加强顶层设计，稳妥规划转型节奏，保障电力供应安全；加强绿色低碳重大科技攻关，统筹电力全链条技术与产业布局；优化完善利益平衡统筹兼顾的市场机制，加快建设绿色金融政策保障体系。通过政策、技术、机制协同，推动中长期我国电力低碳转型的高质量发展。

关键词： 碳达峰     碳中和     电力转型     碳预算     碳减排     情景分析     电力供应成本    

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长三角现代化能源大系统建设战略研究

翁史烈,黄震,于立军,谢晓敏,由婷,张庭婷

《中国工程科学》 2021年 第23卷 第1期   页码 42-51 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2021.01.008

摘要：

长江三角洲（长三角）地区是我国经济发展最活跃、开放程度最高、创新能力最强的区域之一。进一步推进长三角地区能源革命，构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系，促进长三角地区经济、能源和生态环境的协调发展，对推动“长江三角洲区域一体化发展”国家战略具有重要意义。本文结合长三角地区特点，提出建设长三角现代化能源大系统的构思，深入阐述了该系统的主要特征、关键问题和总体集成等，并通过模型计算和定性分析预测了现代化能源大系统建设对长三角地区发展带来的经济效益、环境效益和社会效益。最后，从成立长三角区域内统一的能源领导机构，打造长三角能源一体化先行示范区；深化能源体制改革，培育能源市场；实施“互联网+”智慧能源发展战略，开展能源高质量发展；加大投入，设立长三角能源科技创投基金等方面提出了构建长三角现代化能源大系统的对策建议。

关键词： 长三角一体化，现代化能源大系统，情景分析，能源系统，能源信息管理中心    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

期刊论文

Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Fangfang ZHANG, Huiquan LI, Bo CHEN, Xue GUAN, Yi ZHANG

期刊论文

Scenario analysis of water pollution control in the typical peri-urban river using a coupled hydrodynamic-water

Haifeng JIA, Shuo WANG, Mingjie WEI, Yansong ZHANG

期刊论文

Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity

Yilei Lu, Yunqing Huang, Siyu Zeng, Can Wang

期刊论文

Robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization in a scenario-based position–time–speed network

期刊论文

China’s pre-2020 CO

Hailin WANG

期刊论文

Thermal fluid-structure interaction and coupled thermal-stress analysis in a cable stayed bridge exposed

Nazim Abdul NARIMAN

期刊论文

Seismic progressive-failure analysis of tall steel structures under beam-removal scenarios

Behrouz BEHNAM, Fahimeh SHOJAEI, Hamid Reza RONAGH

期刊论文

Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study of Tianjin city

Junying CHU, Hao WANG, Can WANG

期刊论文

我国“城市矿山”开发利用战略研究

孙笑非,钱易,温宗国,刘丽丽,单桂娟,李金惠

期刊论文

EXPLORING THE RECYCLING OF MANURE FROM URBAN LIVESTOCK FARMS: A CASE STUDY IN ETHIOPIA

Solomon Tulu TADESSE, Oene OENEMA, Christy van BEEK, Fikre Lemessa OCHO

期刊论文

SWMM-based methodology for block-scale LID-BMPs planning based on site-scale multi-objective optimization: a case study in Tianjin

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