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因果推理 Review

况琨, 李廉, 耿直, 徐雷, 张坤, 廖备水, 黄华新, 丁鹏, 苗旺, 蒋智超

《工程（英文）》 2020年第6卷第3期页码 253-263 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2019.08.016

摘要：

因果推理是解释性分析的强大建模工具，它可使当前的机器学习变得可解释。如何将因果推理与机器学习相结合，开发可解释人工智能（XAI）算法，是迈向人工智能2.0的关键步骤之一。为了将因果推理的知识带给机器学习和人工智能领域的学者，我们邀请从事因果推理的研究人员，从因果推理的不同方面撰写了本综述。本综述包括以下几个部分：况琨博士的“平均因果效应评估——简要回顾与展望”，李廉教授的“反事实推理的归因问题”，耿直教授的“Yule-Simpson悖论和替代指标悖论”，徐雷教授的“因果发现CPT方法”，张坤教授的“从观测数据中发现因果关系”，廖备水和黄华新教授的“形式论辩在因果推理和解释中的作用”，丁鹏教授的“复杂实验中的因果推断”，苗旺教授的“观察性研究中的工具变量和阴性对照方法”，蒋智超博士的“有干扰下的因果推断”。

关键词：因果推断指示变量阴性对照因果推理和解释因果发现反事实推理治疗效果评价

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Type 2 diabetes is causally associated with depression: a Mendelian randomization analysis

Liping Xuan, Zhiyun Zhao, Xu Jia, Yanan Hou, Tiange Wang, Mian Li, Jieli Lu, Yu Xu, Yuhong Chen, Lu Qi, Weiqing Wang, Yufang Bi, Min Xu

《医学前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第6期页码 678-687 doi: 10.1007/s11684-018-0671-7

摘要：

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been associated with a high prevalence of depression. We aimed to determine the causal relation by performing a Mendelian randomization (MR) study using 34 T2D risk genetic variants validated in East Asians as the instrumental variable (IV). An MR analysis was performed involving 11 506 participants from a large longitudinal study. The T2D genetic risk score (GRS) was built using the 34 typical T2D common variants. We used T2D_GRS as the IV estimator and performed inverse-variance weighted (IVW) and Egger MR analysis. The T2D_GRS was found to be associated with depression with an OR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07–1.37) after adjustments for age, sex, body mass index, current smoking and drinking, physical activity, education, and marital status. Using T2D_GRS as the IV, we similarly found a causal relationship between genetically determined T2D and depression (OR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.25–2.70). Though we found no association between the combined effect of the genetic IVs for T2D and depression with Egger MR (OR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.42–2.14), we found an association for T2D and depression with IVW (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.31–2.46) after excluding pleiotropic SNPs. Overall, the MR analyses provide evidence inferring a potential causal relationship between T2D and depression.

关键词： causal modeling depression Mendelian randomization type 2 diabetes

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基于模糊状态描述的不确定因果归纳自动推理机制

杨炳儒,唐菁

《中国工程科学》 2000年第2卷第5期页码 44-50

摘要：

文中提出基于模糊语言场和模糊语言结构的知识表示新型框架，并提出能够综合处理模糊不确定性与随机不确定性的广义细胞自动机和广义归纳逻辑因果模型。在此基础上，又提出基于模糊状态描述的新型不确定因果归纳自动推理机制，并讨论其在智能控制器研制中的应用。

关键词：语言场语言值结构广义细胞自动机广义归纳逻辑因果模型自动推理智能控制器

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低碳建筑利益相关方动态关系分析

刘红勇,郑俊巍,林诚

《中国工程科学》 2012年第14卷第12期页码 94-99

摘要：

参考学术界对低碳建筑的定义，结合节能建筑以及对低碳建筑的认识，从狭义和广义两方面提出低碳建筑的定义，并从全寿命周期的角度，对各利益相关方：政府、开发商、设计单位、施工单位、材料设备供应单位、咨询机构、低碳技术研发机构、信贷机构、专业评估检测机构、物业管理单位以及公众，进行了系统的分析;提出了低碳建筑市场利益相关方关系图，同时将低碳建筑分为决策阶段、设计阶段、施工建造阶段、运营维护阶段与拆除报废阶段共计5个阶段;设计了各个阶段低碳建筑利益相关方因果关系图，对各利益相关方的动态关系做出了具体分析。

关键词：低碳建筑利益相关方因果关系图动态分析

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况琨：因果推理（Causal Inferernce）（2020年4月25日）

2022年04月18日

关键词：人工智能

Continuous modeling of soil morphology —thermomechanical behavior of embankment dams

Bettina ALBERS, Krzysztof WILMANSKI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第1期页码 11-23 doi: 10.1007/s11709-010-0081-7

摘要： Macroscopic modeling of soils is based on a number of properties that refer to the mesoscopic morphology. The most fundamental parameters of this art are: 1) coupling parameters between partial stresses of components and deformations of components, 2) porosities, 3) saturation, and 4) permeability and diffusivity, tortuosity. The main aim of this paper is to present in juxtaposition continuous one-, two-, and three-component models of geomaterials appearing in construction of embankment dams. In particular, the above mentioned features, especially saturation with water and seepage problems, modeling of fluidization yielding piping, and generalizations of the Darcy law and changes of porosity, are presented.

关键词： thermomechanical modeling soil morphology saturation porosity

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非线性因果效应分析中的因果域 Correspondence

王爱国1,刘礼2,杨矫云3,李廉3

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第23卷第8期页码 1277-1286 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.2200165

摘要：与线性因果相比，非线性因果具有更复杂的特点和内涵。本文主要讨论非线性因果中的若干个问题，并着重强调因果域的概念。本文基于广泛应用的计算模型和方法，围绕非线性因果分析与计算以及因果域的识别问题提出相应观点和建议，并通过几个具体案例揭示非线性因果在处理复杂因果推断问题中的重要性和现实意义。

关键词：非线性因果效应；因果域；z-特异性因果效应；正向因果；负向因果；空因果

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Flow and thermal modeling of liquid metal in expanded microchannel heat sink

《能源前沿（英文）》 doi: 10.1007/s11708-023-0877-5

摘要： Liquid metal-based microchannel heat sinks (MCHSs) suffer from the low heat capacity of coolant, resulting in an excessive temperature rise of coolant and heat sink when dealing with high-power heat dissipation. In this paper, it was found that expanded space at the top of fins could distribute the heat inside microchannels, reducing the temperature rise of coolant and heat sink. The orthogonal experiments revealed that expanding the top space of channels yielded similar temperature reductions to changing the channel width. The flow and thermal modeling of expanded microchannel heat sink (E-MCHS) were analyzed by both using the 3-dimensional (3D) numerical simulation and the 1-dimensional (1D) thermal resistance model. The fin efficiency of E-MCHS was derived to improve the accuracy of the 1D thermal resistance model. The heat conduction of liquid metal in Z direction and the heat convection between the top surface of fins and the liquid metal could reduce the total thermal resistance (R_t). The above process was effective for microchannels with low channel aspect ratio, low mean velocity (U_m) or long heat sink length. The maximum thermal resistance reduction in the example of this paper reached 36.0%. The expanded space endowed the heat sink with lower pressure, which might further reduce the pumping power (P). This rule was feasible both when fins were truncated (h₂ < 0, h₂ is the height of expanded channel for E-MCHS) and when over plate was raised (h₂ > 0).

关键词： liquid metal cooling heat sink expanded microchannel flow and thermal modeling

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Building information modeling and its impact on users in the lifeworld: A mediation perspective

Hans VOORDIJK

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年第6卷第2期页码 193-206 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0013-8

摘要： Building information modeling (BIM) is expected to have a large impact on users in the lifeworlds in a construction supply chain. The impact of BIM on users in their lifeworlds is explored using the concepts of Heidegger, Habermas, and Ihde from the perspective of technical mediation. This impact is explored by a case study. BIM mediates and shapes the relationship between users and their lifeworlds and can be characterized as either a hermeneutic or an alterity relationship. BIM conflicts with existing work practices in a ready-to-hand work environment. For users that cannot work with BIM, the work environment remains present-at-hand. The many heterogeneous BIM applications and systems used by the various parties involved result in interoperability problems that are a major barrier to enframing the supply chain by BIM. Although invitation and inhibition of certain actions by BIM may stimulate the rationalization of the lifeworlds, the lack of intrinsic motivation and mutual background knowledge inhibits an alignment of BIM and working practices.

关键词： building information modeling mediation enframing lifeworld rationalization Heidegger Habermas Ihde

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一种集成的统一建模语言框架

Mohammad ALSHAYEB,Nasser KHASHAN,Sajjad MAHMOOD

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2016年第17卷第2期页码 143-159 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1500094

摘要：

The unified modeling language (UML) is one of the most commonly used modeling languages in the software industry.It simplifies the complex process of design by providing a set of graphical notations, which helps express the objectoriented analysis and design of software projects. Although UML is applicable to different types of systems, domains, methods,and processes, it cannot express certain problem domain needs. Therefore, many extensions to UML have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a framework for integrating the UML extensions and then use the framework to propose an integrated unified modeling language-graphical (iUML-g) form. iUML-g integrates the existing UML extensions into one integrated form. This includes an integrated diagram for UML class, sequence, and use case diagrams. The proposed approach is evaluated using a case study. The proposed iUML-g is capable of modeling systems that use different domains.

关键词： Unified modeling language (UML) Integration Modeling System analysis and design

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Computer modeling of crystal growth of silicon for solar cells

Lijun LIU, Xin LIU, Zaoyang LI, Koichi KAKIMOTO

《能源前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第3期页码 305-312 doi: 10.1007/s11708-011-0155-9

摘要： A computer simulator with a global model of heat transfer during crystal growth of Si for solar cells is developed. The convective, conductive, and radiative heat transfers in the furnace are solved together in a coupled manner using the finite volume method. A three-dimensional (3D) global heat transfer model with 3D features is especially made suitable for any crystal growth, while the requirement for computer resources is kept permissible for engineering applications. A structured/unstructured combined mesh scheme is proposed to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the simulation. A dynamic model for the melt-crystal (mc) interface is developed to predict the phase interface behavior in a crystal growth process. Dynamic models for impurities and precipitates are also incorporated into the simulator. Applications of the computer simulator to Czochralski (CZ) growth processes and directional solidification processes of Si crystals for solar cells are introduced. Some typical results, including the turbulent melt flow in a large-scale crucible of a CZ-Si process, the dynamic behaviors of the mc interface, and the transport and distributions of impurities and precipitates, such as oxygen, carbon, and SiC particles, are presented and discussed. The findings show the importance of computer modeling as an effective tool in the analysis and improvement of crystal growth processes and furnace designs for solar Si material.

关键词： computer modeling silicon crystal growth solar cells

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Lamb wave propagation modeling for structure health monitoring

Xiaoyue ZHANG, Shenfang YUAN, Tong HAO

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第4卷第3期页码 326-331 doi: 10.1007/s11465-009-0045-6

摘要： This study aims to model the propagation of Lamb waves used in structure health monitoring. A number of different numerical computational techniques have been developed for wave propagation studies. The local interaction simulation approach, used for modeling sharp interfaces and discontinuities in complex media (LISA/SIM theory), has been effectively applied to numerical simulations of elastic wave interaction. This modeling is based on the local interaction simulation approach theory and is finally accomplished through the finite elements software Ansys11. In this paper, the Lamb waves propagating characteristics and the LISA/SIM theory are introduced. The finite difference equations describing wave propagation used in the LISA/SIM theory are obtained. Then, an anisotropic metallic plate model is modeled and a simulating Lamb waves signal is loaded on. Finally, the Lamb waves propagation modeling is implemented.

关键词： Lamb wave modeling LISA/SIM theory finite difference equation finite element

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Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2021年第15卷第6期页码 1301-1316 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0765-1

摘要： An integrated storm surge modeling and traffic analysis were conducted in this study to assess the effectiveness of hurricane evacuations through a case study of Hurricane Irma. The Category 5 hurricane in 2017 caused a record evacuation with an estimated 6.8 million people relocating statewide in Florida. The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to simulate storm tides during the hurricane event. Model validations indicated that simulated pressures, winds, and storm surge compared well with observations. Model simulated storm tides and winds were used to estimate the area affected by Hurricane Irma. Results showed that the storm surge and strong wind mainly affected coastal counties in south-west Florida. Only moderate storm tides (maximum about 2.5 m) and maximum wind speed about 115 mph were shown in both model simulations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) post-hurricane assessment near the area of hurricane landfall. Storm surges did not rise to the 100-year flood elevation level. The maximum wind was much below the design wind speed of 150–170 mph (Category 5) as defined in Florida Building Code (FBC) for south Florida coastal areas. Compared with the total population of about 2.25 million in the six coastal counties affected by storm surge and Category 1–3 wind, the statewide evacuation of approximately 6.8 million people was found to be an over-evacuation due mainly to the uncertainty of hurricane path, which shifted from south-east to south-west Florida. The uncertainty of hurricane tracks made it difficult to predict the appropriate storm surge inundation zone for evacuation. Traffic data were used to analyze the evacuation traffic patterns. In south-east Florida, evacuation traffic started 4 days before the hurricane’s arrival. However, the hurricane path shifted and eventually landed in south-west Florida, which caused a high level of evacuation traffic in south-west Florida. Over-evacuation caused Evacuation Traffic Index (ETI) to increase to 200% above normal conditions in some sections of highways, which reduced the effectiveness of evacuation. Results from this study show that evacuation efficiency can be improved in the future by more accurate hurricane forecasting, better public awareness of real-time storm surge and wind as well as integrated storm surge and evacuation modeling for quick response to the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting.

关键词： storm surge modeling traffic evacuation Hurricane Irma

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Hierarchical modeling of stochastic manufacturing and service systems

Zhe George ZHANG, Xiaoling YIN

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第3期页码 295-303 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2017047

摘要： This paper presents a review of methodologies for analyzing stochastic manufacturing and service systems. On the basis of the scale and level of details of operations, we can study stochastic systems using micro-, meso-, and macro-scopic models. Such a classification unifies stochastic modeling theory. For each model type, we highlight the advantages and disadvantages and the applicable situations. Micro-scopic models are based on quasi-birth-and-death process because of the phase-type distributed service times and/or Markov arrival processes. Such models are appropriate for modeling the detailed operations of a manufacturing system with relatively small number of servers (production facilities). By contrast, meso-scopic and macro-scopic models are based on the functional central limit theorem (FCLT) and functional strong law of large numbers (FSLLN), respectively, under heavy-traffic regimes. These high-level models are appropriate for modeling large-scale service systems with many servers, such as call centers or large service networks. This review will help practitioners select the appropriate level of modeling to enhance their understanding of the dynamic behavior of manufacturing or service systems. Enhanced understanding will ensure that optimal policies can be designed to improve system performance. Researchers in operation analytics and optimization of manufacturing and logistics also benefit from such a review.

关键词： stochastic modeling QBD process PH distribution heavy traffic limits diffusion process

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Structural modeling of a typical gas turbine system

Naresh YADAV, Irshad Ahmad KHAN, Sandeep GROVER

《能源前沿（英文）》 2012年第6卷第1期页码 57-79 doi: 10.1007/s11708-011-0164-8

摘要： This paper presents an approach for the structural modeling and analysis of a typical gas turbine system. This approach has been applied to the systems and subsystems, which are integral parts of a typical gas turbine system. Since a gas turbine system performance is measured in terms of fluid flow energy transformations across its various assemblies and subassemblies, the performance of such subsystems affects the overall performance of the gas turbine system. An attempt has been made to correlate the associativity of such subsystems contributing to overall gas turbine system functional evaluation using graph theoretic approach. The characteristic equations at the system level as well as subsystem level have been developed on the basis of associativity of various factors affecting their performance. A permanent function has been proposed for the functional model of a gas turbine system, which further leads to selection, identification and optimal evaluation of gas turbine systems.

关键词： system modeling gas turbine system evaluation graph theoretic approach