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Understanding and addressing the environmental risk of microplastics

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第1期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1612-5

摘要：

Over the past decades, the plastic production has been dramatically increased. Indeed, a category of small plastic particles mainly with the shapes of fragments, fibers, or spheres, called microplastics (particles smaller than 5 mm) and nanoplastics (particles smaller than 1 μm) have attracted particular attention. Because of its wide distribution in the environment and potential adverse effects to animal and human, microplastic pollution has been reported as a serious environment problem receiving increased attention in recent years. As one of the commonly detected emerging contaminants in the environment, recent evidence indicates that the concentration of microplastics show an increasing trend, for the reason that up to 12.7 million metric tons of plastic litter is released into aquatic environment from land-based sources each year. Furthermore, microplastic exposure levels of model organisms in laboratory studies are usually several orders of magnitude higher than those found in environment, and the microplastics exposure conditions are also different with those observed in the environment. Additionally, the detection of microplastics in feces indicates that they can be excreted out of the bodies of animal and human. Hence, great uncertainties might exist in microplastics exposure and health risk assessment based on current studies, which might be exaggerated. Policies reduce microplastic emission sources and hence minimize their environmental risks are determined. To promote the above policies, we must first overcome the technical obstacles of detecting microplastics in various samples.

关键词： Emerging contaminants     Microplastics     Environment risk     Health effect    

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Ecological Risk Management of Drinking Water Project: The Case Study of Kunming City

Ji-liang Zheng,Jun Hu,Xuan Zhou,Ching Yuen Luk

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2015年 第2卷 第3期   页码 311-319 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2015045

摘要： Following rapid infrastructure development and industrialization, the problems of water pollution and water shortage have become more severe. Whether there is safe drinking water in cities has attracted wide attention. The ecological risk management of drinking water project is an important means of ensuring the safety of a drinking water source. Based on ecological risk assessment and management theories, this paper establishes an ecological risk management model and assessment system with the aim of providing theoretical guidance and scientific basis for formulating a policy on the safety and protection of drinking water sources in a city. Kunming is one of the cities plagued by severe water shortage in China. Its ecological risk management of drinking water has attracted the attention of both the local government and the public. Using Kunming as the case study, this paper conducts a comparative analysis and assessment on three major reservoirs that face ecological risks. It highlights the existing problems and gives helpful suggestions.

关键词： drinking water project     ecological risk     ecological risk assessment     risk management    

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风险矩阵方法与应用述评

朱启超,匡兴华,沈永平

《中国工程科学》 2003年 第5卷 第1期   页码 89-94

摘要：

技术项目的风险管理一直深受美国国防部的重视。介绍了在美国国防采办风险管理中广泛应用的风险矩阵方法，并对其优缺点和适用性进行分析，结合我国国防预研技术项目管理的特点，提出我国开展技术性项目风险管理的思路。

关键词： 风险矩阵     风险管理     项目管理    

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Bioaerosol emissions variations in large-scale landfill region and their health risk impacts

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第12期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-022-1593-9

摘要：

● The airborne bacteria in landfills were 4–50 times higher than fungi.

关键词： Microbial aerosols     Landfill sites     Health risk assessment     CALPUFF    

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Epidemic obesity in children and adolescents: risk factors and prevention

Eun Young Lee, Kun-Ho Yoon

《医学前沿（英文）》 2018年 第12卷 第6期   页码 658-666 doi: 10.1007/s11684-018-0640-1

摘要： The prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents (aged 2–18 years) has increased rapidly, with more than 100 million affected in 2015. Moreover, the epidemic of obesity in this population has been an important public health problem in developed and developing countries for the following reasons. Childhood and adolescent obesity tracks adulthood obesity and has been implicated in many chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, childhood and adolescent obesity is linked to adulthood mortality and premature death. Although an imbalance between caloric intake and physical activity is a principal cause of childhood and adolescent obesity, environmental factors are exclusively important for development of obesity among children and adolescents. In addition to genetic and biological factors, socioenvironmental factors, including family, school, community, and national policies, can play a crucial role. The complexity of risk factors for developing obesity among children and adolescents leads to difficulty in treatment for this population. Many interventional trials for childhood and adolescent obesity have been proven ineffective. Therefore, early identification and prevention is the key to control the global epidemic of obesity. Given that the proportion of overweight children and adolescents is far greater than that of obesity, an effective prevention strategy is to focus on overweight youth, who are at high risk for developing obesity. Multifaceted, comprehensive strategies involving behavioral, psychological, and environmental risk factors must also be developed to prevent obesity among children and adolescents.

关键词： obesity     children     adolescents     epidemiology     risk factor     prevention    

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Optimal risk allocation in alliance infrastructure projects: A social preference perspective

Xiang DING, Qian LI

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2022年 第9卷 第2期   页码 326-336 doi: 10.1007/s42524-020-0145-x

摘要： The mechanism of risk allocation is designed to protect all stakeholders, and it is vital to project success. Qualitative and quantitative ways of optimizing risk allocation have been well documented in extant literature (e.g., allocation principles, models, and solutions), and the foci of existing research are usually the maximization of rational utility. Few research has focused on partners’ social preferences affecting the output of risk allocation. This study presents a quantitative approach based on modeling alliance member (AM)’s inequity aversion (IA) to analyze risk-sharing arrangements in an alliance project. Fehr and Schmidt’s inequity-aversion model is integrated into modeling partner’s utility. This paper derives results for an alliance leader (AL)’s optimal risk-sharing ratio and AM’s optimal risk-management effort simultaneously. The derivation is based on solving a restrained optimization problem using the conception and methods from Stackelberg game theory. Results show that an AM’s IA significantly affects risk allocation between AL and AM. Specifically, envious preference is positively related to AL’s optimal risk-sharing ratio, whereas guilty preference negatively affects AL’s optimal risk-sharing ratio. These findings will be of interest to academics and practitioners involved in designing alliance negotiations.

关键词： public project     contract design     risk sharing     inequity aversion     governance    

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Detection of schedule delay risk of empirical construction projects

Tsegay GEBREHIWET, Hanbin LUO

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2018年 第5卷 第2期   页码 251-267 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2018086

摘要： In Ethiopian construction projects, schedule delay risk is a predominant issue because it is not properly addressed. Although several studies have been focused on the various effects of risk in construction projects, limited efforts have been made to investigate the typical and the overall schedule delay risk. In this study, our aim is to detect the typical and overall schedule delay risk throughout the construction project lifecycle, which consists of the pre-construction, construction, and post-construction stages, and compare the stages with each other. Common criteria, sub-criteria, and attributes were developed for all alternatives for the purpose of making a risk decision. The methodology that was followed integrated the multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process comprehensive evaluation (FAHPCE) and the relative important index (RII). Data were collected from 77 participants, who were selected through purposive sampling from different contracting organizations in Ethiopian construction projects by means of questionnaires that were distributed to experienced experts. The findings showed that there is a typical delay risk either in the type or in the level of the different construction activities. Consequently, the most influenced alternative is the construction stage because of the high-risk responsibility, resource, and contract condition related criteria. The post-construction stage was the second most influenced stage because of the high-risk responsibility-related criteria. The pre-constructed stage was the least influenced stage that consist high-risk criteria of responsibility, resource, and contract condition related. These differences provided noteworthy information about risk mitigation in construction projects by identifying the exact risk level on specific activity to make appropriate decision.

关键词： fuzzy analytic hierarchy process comprehensive evaluation     construction project     detection of delay risk     relative important index    

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The influencing factors of the WTP for the risk reduction of chemical industry accidents in China

Lei HUANG, Zhijuan SHAO, Weiliang BAO, Bailing DUAN, Jun BI, Zengwei YUAN

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2012年 第6卷 第6期   页码 860-868 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0467-y

摘要： To explore the factors that influence respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the risk reduction of chemical industry accidents, a questionnaire survey combined with contingent valuation and psychometric paradigm methods were conducted in the city of Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, China. Both traditional socioeconomic variables and perceived characteristics of the hazards were considered in this study, and a Tobit model was used to find the factors influencing WTP under three risk reduction scenarios. The results showed that three demographic characteristics, , , and , significantly affected the WTP for chemical risk reduction. In addition, three extracted public risk perception factors, , , and , also strongly affected the WTP. The mean WTP value increased as the magnitude of the risk reduction increased. The number of factors influencing the WTP decreased as the reduction level improved, and only the factor had a significant influence on the WTP for a higher level (80%) of risk reduction. The cost for chemical safety management of Yancheng was calculated, and the optimized risk reduction level was determined. These findings can assist governments and policy makers to formulate suitable strategies for risk control, to reach target groups of people to develop effective communication, and to provide specific references for the best investment for the security of local residents.

关键词： risk perception     willingness to pay     contingent valuation method     risk management school of the environment    

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Hybrid deep learning model for risk prediction of fracture in patients with diabetes and osteoporosis

《医学前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第3期   页码 496-506 doi: 10.1007/s11684-021-0828-7

摘要： The fracture risk of patients with diabetes is higher than those of patients without diabetes due to hyperglycemia, usage of diabetes drugs, changes in insulin levels, and excretion, and this risk begins as early as adolescence. Many factors including demographic data (such as age, height, weight, and gender), medical history (such as smoking, drinking, and menopause), and examination (such as bone mineral density, blood routine, and urine routine) may be related to bone metabolism in patients with diabetes. However, most of the existing methods are qualitative assessments and do not consider the interactions of the physiological factors of humans. In addition, the fracture risk of patients with diabetes and osteoporosis has not been further studied previously. In this paper, a hybrid model combining XGBoost with deep neural network is used to predict the fracture risk of patients with diabetes and osteoporosis, and investigate the effect of patients’ physiological factors on fracture risk. A total of 147 raw input features are considered in our model. The presented model is compared with several benchmarks based on various metrics to prove its effectiveness. Moreover, the top 18 influencing factors of fracture risks of patients with diabetes are determined.

关键词： XGBoost     deep neural network     healthcare     risk prediction    

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风险矩阵法在武器装备采办风险评估中的运用

李忠民,魏一鸣,汤淑春,陈健

《中国工程科学》 2006年 第8卷 第6期   页码 95-99

摘要：

在对国外广泛采用的风险矩阵评估方法进行全面分析和系统总结的基础上，对风险矩阵方法在我国武器装备采办风险评估中的运用进行了探讨，并从风险影响和风险概率两个准则入手，以某武器型号采办为例示范性地进行了风险评估，从而为制定科学合理的武器装备采办风险管理提供决策依据。

关键词： 风险矩阵方法     风险评估     武器装备采办    

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Application of probabilistic risk assessment at a coking plant site contaminated by Polycyclic Aromatic

XIA Tianxiang,JIANG Lin,JIA Xiaoyang,ZHONG Maosheng,LIANG Jing

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第3期   页码 441-450 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0572-6

摘要： Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Deterministic Risk Assessment (DRA) at a coking plant site was compared. By DRA, Hazard Quotient (HQ) following exposure to Naphthalene (Nap) and Incremental Life Cancer Risk (ILCR) following exposure to Benzo(a)pyrene (Bap) were 1.87 and 2.12 × 10 . PRA revealed valuable information regarding the possible distribution of risk, and risk estimates of DRA located at the 99.59th and 99.76th percentiles in the risk outputs of PRA, which indicated that DRA overestimated the risk. Cleanup levels corresponding acceptable HQ level of 1 and ILCR level of 10 were also calculated for both DRA and PRA. Nap and Bap cleanup levels were 192.85 and 0.14 mg·kg by DRA, which would result in only 0.25% and 0.06% of the exposed population to have a risk higher than the acceptable risk, according to the outputs of PRA. The application of PRA on cleanup levels derivation would lift the cleanup levels 1.9 times for Nap and 2.4 times for Bap than which derived by DRA. For this coking plant site, the remediation scale and cost will be reduced in a large portion once the method of PRA is used. Sensitivity analysis was done by calculating the contribution to variance for each exposure parameter and it was found that contaminant concentration in the soil ( ), exposure duration ( ), total hours spent outdoor per day ( ), soil ingestion rate ( ), the air breathing rate ( ) and bodyweight ( ) were the most important parameters for risk and cleanup levels calculations.

关键词： Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)     a coking plant     risk     cleanup level     sensitivity analysis     polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)    

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Pharmaceutical compounds in aquatic environment in China: locally screening and environmental risk assessment

Yongshan CHEN,Xiuping XI,Gang YU,Qiming CAO,Bin WANG,François VINCE,Youwei HONG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第3期   页码 394-401 doi: 10.1007/s11783-014-0653-1

摘要： An environmental risk assessment was performed for pharmaceutical compounds present in the aquatic environment of China. Predicted environmental concentration ( ) of the compounds were calculated according to European Medicines Evaluation Agency (EMEA) guidelines. Available ecotoxicological data compromised by applying a very conservative assessment factor ( ) were employed to calculate the predicted no-effect concentration ( ). The screening principle and the risk assessment were based on risk quotient ( ), which derived from the and related values. results indicated that all the compounds except sulfadimethoxine and levocarnitine, should carry out phase II risk assessment in EMEA guideline. values suggested that more than 36 pharmaceuticals may be imposed health threats to the aquatic environment; especially the antibiotic therapeutic class including amoxicillin, sulfasalazine, trimethoprim, oxytetracycline and erythromycin showed high values. These substances with high value ( ≥1) were regarded as top-priority pharmaceuticals for control in the aquatic environment of China. However, the antibiotic substances which had low risk quotient ( <1), should be reassessed by its potentially induced resistance under low concentration in future.

关键词： pharmaceuticals     aquatic environment     risk assessment     aquatic toxicity     risk quotient    

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Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions and Risk Responses to Climate Change in China

Yang-jie Wang,Xiao-hong Chen

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2015年 第2卷 第3期   页码 201-210 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2015050

摘要： Agriculture is likely to bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends in large part on the extent of adaptation in response to climate change. The overall aim of this paper is to attempt to identify farmers’ knowledge, perceptions and risk responses towards climate change (or potential change). In order to achieve this goal, several specific objectives are pursued. First, the paper investigates whether or not farmers have perceived the long-term climate change and extreme weather events. Second, the paper describes how farmers respond to climate change and tries to assess the determinants of their adaptation. Based on data collected from a survey among farm households in three provinces in rural China, the findings demonstrate that farmers are aware of climate variability and identify the rising temperature, decreasing precipitation and the increasing frequency of drought. Only about 25% of farmers are willing to adjust their farming structures as a risk reaction. Household size, wealth, farm size, and the number of plots are found to be important factors that influence farmer adaptive capacity. Implications for policymaking on agriculture and adaptation to climate change will be to focus on providing farmers with information about the climate in time and facilitating enhancement of their adaptive capacity.

关键词： perception     climate change     agriculture     risk reaction     farmers     China    

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Insight of chemical environmental risk and its management from the vinyl chloride accident

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第4期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1652-x

摘要： The combustion of vinyl chloride (VC) after the train derailment accident in Ohio, USA in February, 2023 has caused widespread concern around the world. This paper tried to analyze several issues concerning the accident, including the appropriateness of the VC combustion in the emergency response in this accident, the meanings of so-called “controlled combustion”, the potential environmental risks caused by VC and combustion by-products, and follow-up work. In our view, this accident had surely caused environmental and health risks to some extent. Hence, a comprehensive environmental risk assessment is necessary, and then the site with risk should be comprehensively remediated, hazardous waste should be harmlessly treated as soon as possible. Finally, this accident suggests that further efforts should be taken to bridge the gap between chemical safety management and their environmental risk management.

关键词： Vinyl chloride     Combustion     Chemical safety management     Environmental risk     Emerging contaminants    

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系统工程风险评估方法的研究进展

曹云,徐卫亚

《中国工程科学》 2005年 第7卷 第6期   页码 88-94

摘要：

详细介绍了系统工程风险评估方法及其应用的现状和进展，对各种方法的适用范围及优缺点作了说明，讨论了风险评估方法研究中的几个技术问题，指出目前风险评估方法要解决的问题和今后的研究方向。

关键词： 风险评估     风险分析     系统工程    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Understanding and addressing the environmental risk of microplastics

期刊论文

Ecological Risk Management of Drinking Water Project: The Case Study of Kunming City

Ji-liang Zheng,Jun Hu,Xuan Zhou,Ching Yuen Luk

期刊论文

风险矩阵方法与应用述评

朱启超,匡兴华,沈永平

期刊论文

Bioaerosol emissions variations in large-scale landfill region and their health risk impacts

期刊论文

Epidemic obesity in children and adolescents: risk factors and prevention

Eun Young Lee, Kun-Ho Yoon

期刊论文

Optimal risk allocation in alliance infrastructure projects: A social preference perspective

Xiang DING, Qian LI

期刊论文

Detection of schedule delay risk of empirical construction projects

Tsegay GEBREHIWET, Hanbin LUO

期刊论文

The influencing factors of the WTP for the risk reduction of chemical industry accidents in China

Lei HUANG, Zhijuan SHAO, Weiliang BAO, Bailing DUAN, Jun BI, Zengwei YUAN

期刊论文

Hybrid deep learning model for risk prediction of fracture in patients with diabetes and osteoporosis

期刊论文

风险矩阵法在武器装备采办风险评估中的运用

李忠民,魏一鸣,汤淑春,陈健

期刊论文

Application of probabilistic risk assessment at a coking plant site contaminated by Polycyclic Aromatic

XIA Tianxiang,JIANG Lin,JIA Xiaoyang,ZHONG Maosheng,LIANG Jing

期刊论文

Pharmaceutical compounds in aquatic environment in China: locally screening and environmental risk assessment

Yongshan CHEN,Xiuping XI,Gang YU,Qiming CAO,Bin WANG,François VINCE,Youwei HONG

期刊论文

Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions and Risk Responses to Climate Change in China

Yang-jie Wang,Xiao-hong Chen

期刊论文

Insight of chemical environmental risk and its management from the vinyl chloride accident

期刊论文

系统工程风险评估方法的研究进展

曹云,徐卫亚

期刊论文