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基于TWW函数的道路交通安全灰色评价方法研究

郭仪,周清雷,黄敬宝

《中国工程科学》 2006年第8卷第3期页码 87-90

摘要：

在研究国内外道路交通安全评价方法的基础上，根据我国道路交通安全现状及道路交通安全监督管理的要求，将灰色系统理论应用于道路交通安全评价，建立了一套基于TWW函数的道路交通安全灰色评价指标体系，并对6省市的交通安全水平进行了比较研究。

关键词：道路交通安全灰色评价 TWW函数

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交通土建结构长寿命安全保障的途径分析

钱永久,杜彦良

《中国工程科学》 2017年第19卷第6期页码 6-11 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2017.06.002

摘要：

我国已建成了规模居于世界前列的交通基础设施，但由于多种因素的影响，交通基础设施重大结构的安全保障问题面临着越来越严峻的挑战。本文分析了我国交通基础设施的发展现状，综述了国内外相关领域的研究进展，讨论了我国交通基础设施重大结构长寿命安全保障领域存在的主要问题及实现安全保障的技术途径，提出了实施安全保障计划应达到的目标以及需解决的关键问题。

关键词：土建结构长寿命安全评估管理

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Major bridge projects——a multi-disciplinary approach

Klaus H. OSTENFELD, Erik Y. ANDERSEN

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第4期页码 479-495 doi: 10.1007/s11709-011-0137-3

摘要： Modern bridge building is much more than concrete, steel and money. The overall socioeconomic impact, influence on people migration, traffic, use of primary materials, safety of construction impact on the environment, energy, risk scenarios, health, and most relevant now: climate and CO emissions, are among the parameters which enter into the decision process at the overall holistic conceptual level, the more detailed level of selection of bridge sites, and selection of bridge types as well as construction methods and selection of materials and products. The paper illustrates these dilemmas and illustrates by specific examples how this complicated decision process can be managed and structured in order to arrive at an overall satisfactory solution for design, construction and maintenance throughout the lifetime (life cycle) to these sometimes contradictory parameters and requirements.

关键词： bridges materials climate risk safety environment socioeconomics traffic CO₂ energy life cycle society aesthetics

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Genetic Study Identifies CBLN4 as a Novel Susceptibility Gene for Accident Proneness

Shu-lin Zhang,Hui-qing Jin,Yang Song,Wan-sheng Yu,Liang-dan Sun

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2016年第3卷第1期页码 30-38 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2016008

摘要： Frequent traffic accidents constitute a major danger to human beings. The accident-prone driver who has the stable physiological, psychological, and behavioral characteristics is one of the most prominent causes of traffic accidents. The internal link between the individual characteristics and the accident proneness has been a difficult point in the accident prevention research. The authors selected accident-prone drivers as cases and safe drivers as controls (case-control group) from 18,360 drivers who were enrolled from three public transportation incorporations of China using area stratified sampling method. The case-control groups were 1:1 matched. The authors performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) by 179 cases and 179 controls using the U.S. Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human Mapping SNP 6.0 Array. The authors observed that the gene frequencies of 34 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in three regions of cases were higher than those in the control ( <10 ). The authors then tested two independent replication sets for strong association 6 SNPs in 349 pairs of case-control drivers using the U.S. ABI 3730 sequencing method. The results indicated that SNP rs6069499 within linked CBLN4 gene are strongly associated with accident proneness ( =6.37×10 ). According to CBLN4 gene mainly involved in adrenal development and the regulation of secretion, the authors performed 12 biochemical parameters of the blood using radioimmunoassay. The levels of dopamine (DA) and adrenocorticotropic (ACTH) hormone showed significant differences between accident-prone drivers and safe drivers ( =0.03, =0.01). It is suggested that the accident-prone drivers may have the idiosyncrasy of susceptibility.

关键词： accident proneness genome-wide association study (GWAS) dopamine (DA) ACTH susceptibility gene traffic accident epidemiology accident prevention traffic safety three-dimensional model

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Multi-class dynamic network traffic flow propagation model with physical queues

Yanfeng LI, Jun LI

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第4期页码 399-407 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2017041

摘要： This paper proposes an improved multi-class dynamic network traffic flow propagation model with a consideration of physical queues. Each link is divided into two areas: Free flow area and queue area. The vehicles of the same class are assumed to satisfy the first-in-first-out (FIFO) principle on the whole link, and the vehicles of the different classes also follow FIFO in the queue area but not in the free flow area. To characterize this phenomenon by numerical methods, the improved model is directly formulated in discrete time space. Numerical examples are developed to illustrate the unrealistic flows of the existing model and the performance of the improved model. This analysis can more realistically capture the traffic flow propagation, such as interactions between multi-class traffic flows, and the dynamic traffic interactions across multiple links.

关键词： first-in-first-out (FIFO) multi-class traffic physical queues traffic flow modeling

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Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2021年第15卷第6期页码 1301-1316 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0765-1

摘要： An integrated storm surge modeling and traffic analysis were conducted in this study to assess the effectiveness of hurricane evacuations through a case study of Hurricane Irma. The Category 5 hurricane in 2017 caused a record evacuation with an estimated 6.8 million people relocating statewide in Florida. The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to simulate storm tides during the hurricane event. Model validations indicated that simulated pressures, winds, and storm surge compared well with observations. Model simulated storm tides and winds were used to estimate the area affected by Hurricane Irma. Results showed that the storm surge and strong wind mainly affected coastal counties in south-west Florida. Only moderate storm tides (maximum about 2.5 m) and maximum wind speed about 115 mph were shown in both model simulations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) post-hurricane assessment near the area of hurricane landfall. Storm surges did not rise to the 100-year flood elevation level. The maximum wind was much below the design wind speed of 150–170 mph (Category 5) as defined in Florida Building Code (FBC) for south Florida coastal areas. Compared with the total population of about 2.25 million in the six coastal counties affected by storm surge and Category 1–3 wind, the statewide evacuation of approximately 6.8 million people was found to be an over-evacuation due mainly to the uncertainty of hurricane path, which shifted from south-east to south-west Florida. The uncertainty of hurricane tracks made it difficult to predict the appropriate storm surge inundation zone for evacuation. Traffic data were used to analyze the evacuation traffic patterns. In south-east Florida, evacuation traffic started 4 days before the hurricane’s arrival. However, the hurricane path shifted and eventually landed in south-west Florida, which caused a high level of evacuation traffic in south-west Florida. Over-evacuation caused Evacuation Traffic Index (ETI) to increase to 200% above normal conditions in some sections of highways, which reduced the effectiveness of evacuation. Results from this study show that evacuation efficiency can be improved in the future by more accurate hurricane forecasting, better public awareness of real-time storm surge and wind as well as integrated storm surge and evacuation modeling for quick response to the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting.

关键词： storm surge modeling traffic evacuation Hurricane Irma

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Traffic services for vehicles: the process from receiving raw probe data to space-time diagrams and theresulting traffic service

Markus AUER, Hubert REHBORN, Sven-Eric MOLZAHN, Micha KOLLER

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第4期页码 490-497 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2017008

摘要： Today, large quantities of vehicle data (FCD: floating car data) are widely used by traffic service providers to create and broadcast traffic states in road networks. As a first processing step, all raw position data received from Global Positioning Systems (GPS) have to be map matched in a digital road map. The technical aspects of such a matching process for GPS data are described in this report. After the matching process, space-time-diagrams are created of the probe data showing traffic situation details over space and time. Various examples illustrate how traffic service quality depends on the number of matched GPS raw data; it will be stated that when 2% of connected vehicles in the total traffic flow are sending their GPS data in shorter time intervals, a high quality and precise reconstruction of the current traffic phases is achieved. Traffic reconstruction is followed by a translation into traffic information messages, which can be sent and used in vehicle navigation systems for driver information and dynamic route guidance.

关键词： floating car data map matching three phase traffic theory traffic reconstruction traffic service quality navigation systems

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Percolation-based health management of complex traffic systems

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 557-571 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0174-0

摘要： System health management, which aims to ensure the safe and efficient operation of systems by reducing uncertain risks and cascading failures during their lifetime, is proposed for complex transportation systems and other critical infrastructures, especially under the background of the New Infrastructure Projects launched in China. Previous studies proposed numerous approaches to evaluate or improve traffic reliability or efficiency. Nevertheless, most existing studies neglected the core failure mechanism (i.e., spatio–temporal propagation of traffic congestion). In this article, we review existing studies on traffic reliability management and propose a health management framework covering the entire traffic congestion lifetime, from emergence, evolution to dissipation, based on the study of core failure modes with percolation theory. Aiming to be “reliable, invulnerable, resilient, potential, and active”, our proposed traffic health management framework includes modeling, evaluation, diagnosis, and improvement. Our proposed framework may shed light on traffic management for megacities and urban agglomerations around the world. This new approach may offer innovative insights for systems science and engineering in future intelligent infrastructure management.

关键词： traffic health health management critical infrastructure systems science and engineering

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Fine-grained P2P traffic classification by simply counting flows

Jie HE,Yue-xiang YANG,Yong QIAO,Wen-ping DENG

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第16卷第5期页码 391-403 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1400267

摘要： The continuous emerging of peer-to-peer (P2P) applications enriches resource sharing by networks, but it also brings about many challenges to network management. Therefore, P2P applications monitoring, in particular, P2P traffic classification, is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for accurate P2P traffic classification at a fine-grained level. Our approach relies only on counting some special flows that are appearing frequently and steadily in the traffic generated by specific P2P applications. In contrast to existing methods, the main contribution of our approach can be summarized as the following two aspects. Firstly, it can achieve a high classification accuracy by exploiting only several generic properties of flows rather than complicated features and sophisticated techniques. Secondly, it can work well even if the classification target is running with other high bandwidth-consuming applications, outperforming most existing host-based approaches, which are incapable of dealing with this situation. We evaluated the performance of our approach on a real-world trace. Experimental results show that P2P applications can be classified with a true positive rate higher than 97.22% and a false positive rate lower than 2.78%.

关键词： Traffic classification Peer-to-peer (P2P) Fine-grained Host-based

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Presentation of machine learning methods to determine the most important factors affecting road traffic

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》页码 657-666 doi: 10.1007/s11709-022-0827-z

摘要： The purpose of this research was to develop statistical and intelligent models for predicting the severity of road traffic accidents (RTAs) on rural roads. Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) was used to predict the likelihood of RTAs. For more accurate prediction, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Radius Basis Function (RBF) neural networks were applied. Results indicated that in MLR, the model obtained from the backward method with the correct percent of 84.7% and R² value of 0.893 was the best method for predicting the likelihood of RTAs. Also, MLR showed that the variables of not paying attention to the front not paying attention to the frontroad ahead, followed byand then vehicle-motorcycle/bike accidents were the greatest problems. Among the models, MLP had a better performance, so that the prediction accuracy of MLR, MLP, and RBF were 84.7%, 96.7%, and 92.1%, respectively. MLP model, due to higher accuracy, showed that the variable of reason of accident had the highest effect on the prediction of accidents, and considering MLR results, the variables of not paying attention to the front and then vehicle-motorcycle/bike accidents had the most influence on the occurrence of accidents. Therefore, motorcyclists and cyclists are more prone to accidents, and appropriate solutions should be adopted to enhance their safety.

关键词： safety rural accidents multiple logistic regression artificial neural networks

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Special issue: Management of road and railway traffic and transportation engineering

Yongfu SUN, Ziyou GAO

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第4期页码 385-387 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2017110

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Simulation model based on Monte Carlo method for traffic assignment in local area road network

Yuchuan DU, Yuanjing GENG, Lijun SUN

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第2期页码 195-203 doi: 10.1007/s11709-009-0032-3

摘要： For a local area road network, the available traffic data of traveling are the flow volumes in the key intersections, not the complete OD matrix. Considering the circumstance characteristic and the data availability of a local area road network, a new model for traffic assignment based on Monte Carlo simulation of intersection turning movement is provided in this paper. For good stability in temporal sequence, turning ratio is adopted as the important parameter of this model. The formulation for local area road network assignment problems is proposed on the assumption of random turning behavior. The traffic assignment model based on the Monte Carlo method has been used in traffic analysis for an actual urban road network. The results comparing surveying traffic flow data and determining flow data by the previous model verify the applicability and validity of the proposed methodology.

关键词： traffic assignment local area road network turning ratio Monte Carlo method

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交通流诱导系统实时方法研究

崔建明,叶怀珍

《中国工程科学》 2008年第10卷第10期页码 64-66

摘要：

交通流的实时诱导系统多为建立在单位时间的信息重构，一旦在周期时间内事故发生，则造成行驶车辆正常诱导无法进行。通过对实际交通状况的分析，提出一个新的并且简单可行的解决方案。方案在原有系统中增加了对实时事件突发诱导系统的修正，减少系统应变时间。此方案是建立在现有的诱导基础之上的改进技术，可以在交通流诱导系统中大范围推广应用。

关键词：交通流诱导系统仿真突发事件实时诱导

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车路协同环境下的交通工程

王云鹏,鲁光泉,于海洋

《中国工程科学》 2018年第20卷第2期页码 106-110 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.02.016

摘要：

交通工程的产生与发展始终围绕着交通系统中的人车路耦合关系，来实现高效、安全、绿色的目标。载运工具智能化和车路/车车互联推动了车路协同技术的发展，将使交通系统逐渐从车路协调走向车路协同，并进一步提升交通系统的效能与安全。在车路协同环境下，传统交通系统中人为因素弱化，人车路耦合性增强，系统可控可测，随机性减弱，系统的感知、决策及控制主体逐渐从驾驶人转向机器，这给传统交通工程的基础理论方法带来了诸多变化与挑战。本文主要从人车路耦合的角度重点探讨车路协同系统对交通工程的影响，并提出未来发展过程中亟需解决的科学问题。

关键词：交通工程车路协同发展趋势