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Analyzing construction safety through time series methods

Houchen CAO, Yang Miang GOH

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年第6卷第2期页码 262-274 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0015-6

摘要： The construction industry produces a large amount of data on a daily basis. However, existing data sets have not been fully exploited in analyzing the safety factors of construction projects. Thus, this work describes how temporal analysis techniques can be applied to improve the safety management of construction data. Various time series (TS) methods were adopted for identifying the leading indicators or predictors of construction accidents. The data set used herein was obtained from a large construction company that is based in Singapore and contains safety inspection scores, accident cases, and project-related data collected from 2008 to 2015. Five projects with complete and sufficient data for temporal analysis were selected from the data set. The filtered data set contained 23 potential leading indicators (predictors or input variables) of accidents (output or dependent variable). TS analyses were used to identify suitable accident predictors for each of the five projects. Subsequently, the selected input variables were used to develop three different TS models for predicting accident occurrences, and the vector error correction model was found to be the best model. It had the lowest root mean squared error value for three of the five projects analyzed. This study provides insights into how construction companies can utilize TS data analysis to identify projects with high risk of accidents.

关键词： time series temporal construction safety leading indicators accident prevention forecasting

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Key uncertainty events impacting on the completion time of highway construction projects

Alireza MOGHAYEDI, Abimbola WINDAPO

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年第6卷第2期页码 275-298 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0022-7

摘要： This paper examines the uncertainty events encountered in the process of constructing highways, and evaluates their impact on construction time, on highway projects in South Africa. The rationale for this examination stems from the view held by scholars that the construction of highways is a complex process, taking place in changing environments and often beset by uncertainties; and that there is a lack of appropriate evaluation of these uncertainty events occurring during the construction process. The research made use of a review of extant literature in the area of uncertainty management, and modeling in infrastructure projects, to guide the direction of the study. The inquiry process consisted of brainstorming by highway experts and interviewing them to identify the uncertainty factors that impact construction time. An uncertainty matrix for South African highway projects was developed, using a quantitative model and descriptive statistics. It emerged from the study that the uncertainty events affecting the construction time of highway projects are distributed across economic, environmental, financial, legal, political, social and technical factors. Also, it was found that each factor might account for several uncertainty events which impact on construction time differently, through a combination of the uncertainty events of the individual construction activities. Based on the obtained data, an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been developed, as a simple, reliable and accurate advanced machine learning technique to assess the impact of uncertainty events on the completion time of highway construction projects. To validate the ANFIS model, the Stepwise Regression (SR) models have been designed and their results are compared with the results of the ANFIS. Based on the predicted impact size of uncertainty events on the time of highway projects, it can be concluded that construction time on South African highway projects is significantly related to the social and technical uncertainties factors.

关键词： ANFIS construction time impact assessment highway project South Africa uncertainty

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Negative weights in network time model

Zoltán A. VATTAI, Levente MÁLYUSZ

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2022年第9卷第2期页码 268-280 doi: 10.1007/s42524-020-0109-1

摘要： Time does not go backward. A negative duration, such as “time period” at first sight is difficult to interpret. Previous network techniques (CPM/PERT/PDM) did not support negative parameters and/or loops (potentially necessitating recursive calculations) in the model because of the limited computing and data storage capabilities of early computers. Monsieur Roy and John Fondahl implicitly introduced negative weights into network techniques to represent activities with fixed or estimated durations (MPM/PDM). Subsequently, the introduction of negative lead and/or lag times by software developers (IBM) apparently overcome the limitation of not allowing negative time parameters in time model. Referring to general digraph (Event on Node) representation where activities are represented by pairs of nodes and pairwise relative time restrictions are represented by weighted arrows, we can release most restraints in constructing the graph structure (incorporating the dynamic model of the inner logic of time plan), and a surprisingly flexible and handy network model can be developed that provides all the advantages of the abovementioned techniques. This paper aims to review the theoretical possibilities and technical interpretations (and use) of negative weights in network time models and discuss approximately 20 types of time-based restrictions among the activities of construction projects. We focus on pure relative time models, without considering other restrictions (such as calendar data, time-cost trade-off, resource allocation or other constraints).

关键词： graph technique network technique construction management scheduling

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高拱坝施工实时控制系统集成理论与应用

任炳昱,吴斌平

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第12期页码 84-90

摘要：

针对高拱坝施工过程具有很强的复杂性和随机性的特征，提出将系统集成理论应用于高拱坝施工实时控制中，设计了高拱坝施工实时控制系统集成框架，从数据信息集成、应用功能集成、技术方法集成和监控指标集成4个方面详细论述了系统集成的实现过程，并研制开发了网络平台下的高拱坝施工实时控制系统。工程应用实例表明，基于系统集成理论构建的高拱坝施工实时控制系统能对高拱坝施工过程实现动态的集成控制与分析，有效地提高了大坝建设管理水平。

关键词：实时控制系统集成数据集成网络平台高拱坝施工

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重大水利水电工程施工实时控制关键技术及其工程应用

马洪琪,钟登华,张宗亮,孙玉军,刘东海

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第12期页码 20-27

摘要：

高心墙堆石坝和高混凝土坝的施工质量与施工进度控制是工程建设的重要技术问题。针对常规人工控制手段难以确保高心墙堆石坝施工质量，以及高强度连续施工下高混凝土坝施工进度难以实时控制等问题，提出了高心墙堆石坝填筑碾压质量实时监控技术、坝料上坝运输过程实时监控技术和施工质量动态信息PDA实时采集技术，实现了大坝填筑碾压全过程的全天候、精细化、在线实时监控；在建立高混凝土坝施工进度实时控制数学模型基础上，提出了施工进度实时预警与动态调整方法，为高混凝土坝施工进度的实时预测、适时预警、动态调整与优化提供了分析手段；提出了网络环境下数字大坝系统集成技术，研制开发了数字大坝系统，为大坝竣工验收、安全鉴定及运行管理提供了支撑平台。成果已应用于10余项重大工程，取得了显著的经济效益和社会效益。

关键词：高心墙堆石坝高混凝土坝施工质量施工进度实时监控数字大坝

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高心墙堆石坝填筑施工过程实时监控系统研发与应用

崔博,胡连兴,刘东海

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第12期页码 91-96

摘要：

文章针对高心墙堆石坝填筑施工特点，建立了过程控制指标体系，确定了过程监控方法，提出了解决方案，研制开发了具有实时性、高精度、自动化、全天候等特点的大坝填筑施工过程监控系统，实现土石料上坝运输过程、坝面填筑碾压过程的实时监控。该系统应用于亚洲第一高土石坝——糯扎渡心墙堆石坝的施工现场，建立了以监控系统为核心的施工过程控制体系，对大坝填筑施工的主要环节实现精细化的全天候实时监控，有效地控制了大坝填筑施工参数，提高了施工过程的质量控制水平与效率。

关键词：高心墙堆石坝填筑施工过程实时监控上坝运输填筑碾压研发与应用

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基于仿真的长距离引水隧洞施工全过程进度实时控制与可视化分析研究

胡连兴,佟大威,焦凯

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第12期页码 97-102

摘要：

长距离引水隧洞常具有埋深大、洞线长、洞径大和工程地质条件极其复杂等特点，各工序工程量大，相互间影响巨大，因此，在实际施工过程中内外环境和约束条件可能发生变化，使原定的施工进度计划与实际施工进程不可避免地产生偏差。如果这种偏差不及时纠正，将会越来越大，以致原计划进度起不到指导实际施工的作用。文章利用计算机仿真技术、控制论思想和虚拟现实技术，提出了基于仿真的长距离引水隧洞施工全过程进度实时控制与可视化分析方法，对施工进度的实时控制提供了可行性研究和科学依据。

关键词：长距离引水隧洞施工进度实时控制可视化仿真

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Performance of seven highway construction contracting methods analyzed by project size

Yuanxin ZHANG, Abdol CHINI, R. Edward MINCHIN Jr., Lourdes PTSCHELINZEW, Dev SHAH

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2018年第5卷第2期页码 240-250 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2018040

摘要： The conventional Design-Bid-Build (DBB) construction contracting method has had various drawbacks exposed in highway construction practice, including lack of communication, inefficient design, antagonizing relationships, and increased disputes. To mitigate the negative aspects of DBB, several alternative contracting methods and alternative project delivery systems have been devised and introduced to the industry over the past 30 years. Five such innovations were tested by a research team from the University of Florida under the sponsorship of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). To perform a realistic assessment, this study categorized FDOT projects built between 2006 and 2015 into groups according to current contract amounts. Both absolute and relative metrics were defined and employed. For comparison purposes, a collective analysis on all gathered data was performed. Additionally, the influence of outliers on the results was examined. The results showed that analyses based on individual cost categories are more convincing because large projects tend to impose stronger influence on the analyses. In addition, outliers must be identified and screened to reach realistic and reliable conclusions. With regard to the actual performance of the contracting methods, each performs differently within different cost categories.

关键词： alternative contracting methods time cost performance evaluation

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我国天基信息实时智能服务系统发展战略研究

李德仁 ,沈欣

《中国工程科学》 2020年第22卷第2期页码 138-143 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2020.02.017

摘要：

天基信息实时智能服务系统（PNTRC）是指卫星通信、卫星导航与卫星遥感集成的下一代天基系统，通过多载荷集成、多星协同、天地网络互联，依托智能移动终端将数据和信息按需地送达各类军民用户，服务于国民经济与国防建设主战场。本文从PNTRC的重大战略需求入手，梳理了国内外卫星通信、卫星导航、卫星遥感的发展现状，凝练了我国天基信息系统存在的问题，阐述了PNTRC基本概念、建设目标和技术体系，在分析PNTRC与现有（或规划中）天基系统的关联关系的基础上，论证了相应系统建设的可行性。研究提出，系统建设按照“先局部、再区域、到全球”的路线图，可采取“三步走”策略；系统建设应纳入国家科技发展的总体规划，采用军民共建共享共用的运行模式；系统建设应加强与现有和规划中的“通导遥”卫星及地面通信系统的对接与融合。

关键词：天基信息实时智能服务系统建设技术体系战略需求

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施工现场安全危险源实时监控与安全风险预测方法研究

吴伟巍,Patrick T. I. LAM,李启明,Michael C. H. YAM,David A. S. CHEW

《中国工程科学》 2010年第12卷第3期页码 68-72

摘要：

对国内外建筑业施工现场安全风险的研究进行了文献综述，针对目前研究的不足之处，提出了施工现场安全危险源实时监控和安全风险实时预测的示意性模型，并详细解释了该模型的含义和方法。研究将提供一种基于前馈信号的施工现场安全危险源实时监控和安全风险实时预测的方法；并通过将现有研究的视角引入到施工现场关键安全危险源的前馈信号上，为进一步的研究打下良好的理论基础。

关键词：施工现场安全风险实时预测前馈信号信号检测理论

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基于可视化仿真的隧道工程施工进度分析与控制研究

杨国文,宋洋

《中国工程科学》 2007年第9卷第6期页码 48-52

摘要：

介绍了基于GIS的隧道工程施工进度可视化仿真方法仿真模型；提出了基于可视化仿真的隧道工程施工进度风险分析及决策方法，使施工资源优化；论述了基于可视化仿真的隧道工程施工进度S型曲线实时管理与控制方法；最后进行了实例研究。

关键词：隧道施工可视化仿真优化分析实时控制

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大型公共项目融资风险与控制研究

陈守科,韦灼彬

《中国工程科学》 2007年第9卷第12期页码 57-62

摘要：

在大型公共项目的运作过程中，融资已经成为解决资金缺口的主要手段。笔者在界定项目融资结构、项目资金流量及其内涵的基础上，通过建立定量模型，从融资比例、建设工期和项目收益率三个方面对大型公共项目运作中的融资风险进行了分析，并通过算例对该模型进行了验证。

关键词：大型公共项目；融资风险；融资比例；建设工期；项目收益率

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General expression for linear and nonlinear time series models

Ren HUANG, Feiyun XU, Ruwen CHEN

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第4卷第1期页码 15-24 doi: 10.1007/s11465-009-0015-z

摘要： The typical time series models such as ARMA, AR, and MA are founded on the normality and stationarity of a system and expressed by a linear difference equation; therefore, they are strictly limited to the linear system. However, some nonlinear factors are within the practical system; thus, it is difficult to fit the model for real systems with the above models. This paper proposes a general expression for linear and nonlinear auto-regressive time series models (GNAR). With the gradient optimization method and modified AIC information criteria integrated with the prediction error, the parameter estimation and order determination are achieved. The model simulation and experiments show that the GNAR model can accurately approximate to the dynamic characteristics of the most nonlinear models applied in academics and engineering. The modeling and prediction accuracy of the GNAR model is superior to the classical time series models. The proposed GNAR model is flexible and effective.

关键词： linear and nonlinear autoregressive model system identification time series analysis

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生态文明建设的时代背景与重大意义

杜祥琬,温宗国,王宁,曹馨

《中国工程科学》 2015年第17卷第8期页码 8-15

摘要：

生态文明是人类文明发展的新阶段，是人类社会发展中出现的更复杂、更进步、更高级的人类文明形态。在我国，建设生态文明已被提升为国家发展战略并逐步付诸实践。本文从人与自然关系的角度入手揭示了人类文明形态的演进，指出生态文明是继原始文明、农业文明、工业文明之后的一种新的文明形态；阐释了我国建设生态文明的国际和国内背景，并在新中国成立以来发展理念变革分析的基础上，解读了生态文明建设的五大意义；最后结合现状提出开展生态文明建设的战略建议，为我国生态文明建设理论和实践提供参考。

关键词：生态文明；时代背景；文明演变；重大意义；战略建议

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Run-time system based on LinSERCANS and Soft-PLC

Cunfeng KANG, Chong WANG, Chunmin MA, Xudong HUANG, Renyuan FEI

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第4卷第2期页码 120-124 doi: 10.1007/s11465-009-0019-8

摘要： Soft-PLC with open architecture is the direction of development in industrial automation. This paper discusses the method of communication between the interface functions of LinSERCANS under RTLinux and the external library of Soft-PLC under Windows. Based on the API HOOK theory, the communication between the interface functions of LinSERCANS and the external libraries of Soft-PLC is set up and it solves the calling functions of dynamic link libraries in different operation systems. It is able to combine LinSERCANS with the Soft-PLC, and a run-time system is developed based on the interface technology of the serial real-time communication system (SERCOS) and technology of soft-PLC. This run-time system has been used in all electronic injection molding machines and works very well.

关键词： Soft-PLC run-time system LinSERCANS dynamic link libraries