Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering
>> 2009,
Volume 3,
Issue 3
doi:
10.1007/s11709-009-0044-z
Research articles
Probabilistic model for vessel-bridge collisions
in the Three Gorges Reservoir
1.Chongqing Communications
Research & Design Institute, Chongqing 400067, China; 2.State Key Laboratory
for Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai
200092, China;
Available online: 2009-09-05
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Abstract
Based on a field observation on vessel transit path of three bridges over the Yangtze River in the Three Gorges Reservoir, and an analysis of the geometric probabilistic model of transiting vessels in collision probability calculation, the aberrancy angle and vessel velocity probabilistic model related with impact force, a probabilistic model is established and also verified by goodness-of-fit test. The vessel transit path distribution can be expressed by the normal distribution model. For the Three Gorges Reservoir, the mean and standard deviation adopt 0.2 and 0.1, respectively ( is the channel width). The aberrancy angle distribution of vessels accepts maximum I distribution model, and its distribution parameters can be taken as 0.314 and 4.354. The velocity distribution of up-bound and down-bound vessels can also be expressed by the normal distribution model.
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