《1 Overview of technology foresight in Japan》

1 Overview of technology foresight in Japan

As the pioneer of technology foresight, Japan conducted its first national technology foresight survey in 1971 and became the first country to enable its government to organize and implement large-scale technology foresight. The survey is conducted every five years, wherein each survey corresponds to a time span of 30 years. As of 2016, Japan has conducted 10 technology foresight surveys to determine the direction and goals for technological development over the next 15 to 30 years, making it the most influential country in terms of technology foresight and setting an example for countries participating in technology foresight programs around the world.

The 10 technology foresight surveys were characterized by constant progress in terms of sophistication and influence, and can be roughly divided into three phases: i) the 1st–4th surveys in the nascent stage that highlight the increasing numbers of participating sectors and projects and the improvements in the classification structure; ii) the 5th–7th surveys in the growing stage that highlight more reasonable and perfect procedures of implementation corresponding to a higher level of sophistication of questionnaire design and participant screening; and iii) the 8th–10th surveys in the ripening stage that highlight a greater diversity of prediction techniques [1]. With respect to the 8th survey, requirement analysis, bibliometric analysis, and scenario analysis techniques are used in addition to the Delphi survey. Furthermore, a cross-disciplinary approach is adopted to address the topics in three basic fields, namely industrial infrastructure, social infrastructure, and social science and technology, with social topics accounting for one-fourth of the total science and technology topics. With respect to the 9th survey, regional workshops are held to look into regional innovation capabilities in addition to the Delphi survey and scenario analysis with an increased focus placed on the impact and contribution of science and technology to social development. The 10th survey is based on the problem-solving scenario planning [2] approach that highlights the integration of science and technology and innovation policies and uses the future vision, Delphi survey, and scenario analysis techniques for the scientific and accurate prediction of technological development.

《2 Main methods and paradigms for Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey》

2 Main methods and paradigms for Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey

《2.1 Problem-solving scenario planning》

2.1 Problem-solving scenario planning

The 10th technology foresight survey in Japan was conducted by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP). The NISTEP adopted the problem-solving scenario approach at the beginning of the 10th technology foresight survey. The approach reviews instances with multiple options available to solve a challenge and identifies effective policy options while considering potential trade-offs in terms of the economic impact, financial strain, technological feasibility, obstacles in adoption, and societal acceptance. The problem-solving scenario planning approach works as follows: first, science and technology topics that are expected to be achieved in the future are identified based on research on future visions. These science and technology topics are then evaluated. Next, a future scenario is developed, and policy options are identified by combining a technology scenario and a social scenario to achieve the integration of science and technology policies with innovation policies (Fig. 1).

《Fig. 1》

Fig. 1. Flowchart of the problem-solving scenario planning for Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey

 

For example, in a society that experiences a population decline caused by the effect of the aging population, diabetes is one of the major diseases affecting the productivity of the labor force population (between 15 and 65 years of age classified as economically active as per population statistics). The potential science and technology policy options to solve this problem include: ① early treatment intervention based on imaging technology that captures microscopic changes in pancreatic β-cells and precognition technology of the manufacturer; ② late-stage treatment intervention options through regenerative medicine, such as pancreatic β-cell injection for regeneration; ③ a drug cost reduction option by replacing insulin with low-molecular drugs that can be mass-manufactured; and ④ preventive intervention option by developing preventive treatment technology, such as lifestyle coaching, including kinesiotherapy and dietary therapy. Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 present the problem-solving scenario planning and policy options.

《Fig. 2》

Fig. 2. Analysis of the problem-solving scenario.

 

《Fig. 3》

Fig. 3. Problem-solving policy options: *1total amount of investment based on an assumption (the annual investment amount remains the same from the assumption to the realization) and *2estimate (assuming that life-style improvement is observed among 50% of the maker users).

 

《2.2 Overview of the survey implementation》

2.2 Overview of the survey implementation

2.2.1 Survey objectives

The key objectives of Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey include studying the development of science and technology development toward a target society in the future to contribute to the formulation of science, technology, and innovation-related policies and strategies and enhance the possibility of developing academic and industry roadmaps. Accordingly, opinions from experts with respect to the direction of medium- and long-term development (over the next 30 years) in science and technology and social systems required to realize the future society are collected and analyzed to achieve these objectives. Science and technology topics with high potential and significance in the future are identified based on the analysis.

2.2.2 Implementation structure

Fig. 4 presents the implementation structure of Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey.

《Fig. 4》

Fig. 4. Japan’s 10th technological survey implementation structure.

 

2.2.3 Overview of technology foresight

The period covered by Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey is up to the year 2050. However, the target years correspond to 2020, 2030, and 2050.

The eight covered fields are as follows: ① ICT and analytics; ② health, medical care, and life sciences; ③ agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, and biotechnology; ④ space, ocean,earth, and science infrastructure; ⑤ environment, resources, and energy; ⑥ material, device, and technological process; ⑦ social infrastructure; and ⑧ service-oriented society. The committees discussed topics in each item, and a total of 932 topics were selected.

The technology foresight is centered on the Delphi survey. An online questionnaire survey was conducted from September 1 to September 30, 2014. The NISTEP asked approximately 2000 experts in the NISTEP expert network as well as members of related professional organizations to participate in the survey. Only 4 309 experts responded from a total of 5 237 registered experts. With respect to affiliation, 49.1 % of the experts was from universities; 36.4 % was from the business sector; and 14.5 % was from the public sector. With respect to age, 30 % of the experts was aged below 40 years; 26 % was in the 40–49 year category; 22% was in the 50–59 year category; 12% was 60 years or above; and 10% was in the unknown age category.

《2.3 Main questions in the questionnaire survey》

2.3 Main questions in the questionnaire survey

The questionnaire considered R&D characteristics, predicted time of realization, and key measures (Tables 1–3).

《Table 1》

Table 1. Design of the questionnaire on the R&D characteristics.

 

《Table 2》

Table 2. Design of the questionnaire on the predicted time of realization.

《Table 3》

Table 3. Design of the questionnaire of the pilot measures used by technological realization.

 

《3 Main results from Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey》

3 Main results from Japan’s 10th technology foresight survey

《3.1 Analysis of R&D characteristics》

3.1 Analysis of R&D characteristics

Scores were computed based on the coded responses for each characteristic (Very high: 4; High: 3; Low: 2; Very low: 1). Figs. 5–9 represent the distributions of 310 topics of the top 1/3 main topics. The proportion of the main topics is shown based on the field.

《Fig. 5》

Fig. 5. Distribution of the top 1/3 topics in each field in importance.

 

《Fig. 6》

Fig. 6. Distribution of the top 1/3 topics in each field in global competitiveness.

 

《Fig. 7》

Fig. 7. Distribution of the top 1/3 topics in each field in uncertainty.

 

《Fig. 8》

Fig. 8. Distribution of the top 1/3 topics in each field in discontinuity.

 

《Fig. 9》

Fig. 9. Distribution of the top 1/3 topics in each field in morality.

 

《3.2 Analysis of importance and global competitiveness》

3.2 Analysis of importance and global competitiveness

Science and technology topics are reviewed for their importance and global competitiveness based on the results of the questionnaire survey. For example, with respect to ICT and analytics (Fig. 10), items in “high-performance computing” (HPC) exhibit high importance and global competitiveness, while items in “cyber security” and “software” exhibit high importance albeit low global competitiveness.

《Fig. 10》

Fig. 10. ICT and analytics.

 

For the field of health, medical care, and life sciences (Fig. 11), “regenerative medicine” shows high importance and global competitiveness, while “emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases” show high importance, but low global competitiveness.

《Fig. 11》

Fig. 11. Health, medical care, and life sciences.

 

Tables 4 and 5 present the top-rated topics identified in the survey.

《Table 4》

Table 4. Top 100 topics in importance–1

 

《Table 5》

Table 5. Top 100 topics in importance–2.

 

《3.3 Analysis of importance and discontinuity》

3.3 Analysis of importance and discontinuity

The analysis of development trend and characteristics based on classification of science and technology items is an important purpose of technology foresight that is essential to science and technology policymaking. In this survey, the top 1/3 topics were compared and analyzed in terms of development potential, uncertainty, and discontinuity. Specifically, 312 topics with high importance (top 1/3 topics on the importance score) were examined with scores for uncertainty and discontinuity combined to extract topics within the primary 10 % (30 topics) and secondary 10 % (30 topics). Global competitiveness was considered to finalize the ranking of the above primary and secondary topics (Fig. 12).

《Fig. 12》

Fig. 12. Analysis of importance.

 

Items with high importance were further divided into four categories:

Category I: relatively higher in uncertainty and discontinuity as well as in Japan’s potential development (i.e., regenerative medicine, fuel cells and rechargeable battery for automobiles, and earthquake forecasting) (Table 6).

《Table 6》

Table 6. Statistical results in Category I.

 

Category II: relatively higher in uncertainty and discontinuity while relatively lower in Japan’s development potential (i.e., cyber security, mental disease, and infectious diseases) (Table 7).

《Table 7》

Table 7. Statistical results in Category II.

 

Category III: relatively higher in certainty and continuity although relatively lower with respect to Japan’s development potential (i.e., network technology, utilization of medical data, forestry, and surveillance) (Table 8).

《Table 8》

Table 8. Statistical results in Category III.

 

Category IV: relatively higher in terms of certainty and continuity as well as Japan’s development potential (i.e., electron beam application (material and treatment), high-efficiency power generation, and recycling of resources) (Table 9).

《Table 9》

Table 9. Statistical results in Category IV.

 

《3.4 Analysis of key measures》

3.4 Analysis of key measures

Fig. 13 shows the statistical analysis results of the key measures identified in the technology foresight survey. As indicated, technology realization prioritizes human resource strategy and resource allocation. Fields that need to focus on human resource strategy for technology realization include ICT and analytics, materials, devices, and technological process. Social realization prioritizes collaboration/ cooperation and environmental enhancement. The fields that must focus on environmental enhancement for social realization include social infrastructure and service-oriented societies.

《Fig. 13》

Fig. 13. Analysis of the contributory factors.

 

《4 Lessons from Japan’s technology foresight》

4 Lessons from Japan’s technology foresight

The concept of technology foresight emerged in Japan in the 1960s, and the practice of technology foresight began in the 1970s because of the economic transformation that occurred in Japan. Japan’s economy rapidly developed through the introduction of advanced foreign technologies, and Japan emerged as a world leader in several fields after the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded that of the Federal Republic of Germany to correspond to the second largest GDP in the world. In light of role changes, a major concern for the Japanese government involved formulating the right science and technology policies to bolster sustainable economic development, which naturally requires foresight and prediction in the policymaking process [3]. China is currently in a critical period of innovation-driven development and economic transformation. Learning from the success story of Japan, seriously considering uncertainty and discontinuity in technological progress, and fully appreciating the impact of social demands and policy on technological achievement are important in achieving the strategic goal of becoming a leading power in science and technology. Given the moderately prosperous vision of society in China, a systematic approach should be developed to explore the path of technological development, planning, and shaping to forge ahead in technology trends.