《1 Introduction》

1 Introduction

The next 20 years is a key period for improving economic efficiency and economic transformation/upgrades in China, which has an urgent need for innovations in science and technology to sustain its economic development. Modern agricultural development was characterized as resulting in efficient output, product safety, resource conservation, and a healthy environment. The themes for China’s agricultural development include the need to adopt green ecological technologies to support agriculture production more efficiently and safely, the need to safeguard food security, and agricultural sustainable development. The “Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy 2035” in agriculture is based on the outcomes of many previous studies [1–4] on the social and economic development prospects and development trends in agricultural engineering science and technology until 2035, with a focus on the practical problems and technology needs of the coming 20 years. To improve the scientificity of the study and to judge future development trends in agricultural engineering science and technology, the technology foresight method was employed [5–7]. The overall objectives are to grasp trends in science and technology in agriculture; to present the key development fields according to China’s practical needs through 2035 regarding social and economic development; and to predict and judge China’s capability through 2035 regarding science and technology in agriculture. The knowledge obtained will provide reference and support for future development trends in science and technology in agriculture engineering.

《2 Methods》

2 Methods

《2.1 Foresight method and procedure》

2.1 Foresight method and procedure

One of the main methods adopted in technology foresight is the questionnaire survey. The list of future directions for key technology was derived from an extensive collection of expert opinions and advice. The survey method used was the Delphi method. The questionnaire was distributed to academicians, experts, government officials, and business people. A comprehensive evaluation of the listed technology items was obtained from people in every group. Based on the statistical analysis of the survey results, the key fields, key technology projects, and major technology groups of future science and technology in agriculture were filtered, providing support for the formulation of development strategies for the 2035 China engineering science and technology in agriculture.

The questionnaire was in two forms: online and hard copy. It was administered in two rounds. The technology lists in the second round were updated/revised by incorporating the new directions presented by the experts in the first round. A statistical analysis was performed in the second round of the survey and questionnaire, and the foresight report was formatted. The procedure followed is illustrated in Fig. 1.

《Fig. 1. 》

Fig. 1. Flow chart of technology foresight in agriculture.

 

《2.2 The list of agricultural technology foresight and their statistical indicators》

2.2 The list of agricultural technology foresight and their statistical indicators

2.2.1 The foresight list in the agricultural area

There were nine subfields in the first-round questionnaire pertaining to the agricultural area: grain and cash crops, horticulture, forestry and ecology, agricultural engineering, animal husbandry, fisheries, animal epidemics, agricultural resources and environment, and food processing and food safety; there were a total of 58 technology directions. A total of 958 experts were invited to participate in the first-round questionnaire, of whom 408 replied. The expert participation rate was 42.6%. We received 2 253 questionnaires. There were 39 experts on average for each technology item, and the number of experts exceeded 50 for one-third of the technology items.

A research group organized and analyzed the data collected in the first-round survey and discussed it with academicians and experts in order to evaluate the technology lists and formulate the foresight lists for the second round (Table 1); there were a total of 41 items. There were 796 experts invited to the second round, of whom 300 replied. The participation rate was 38%. We received 1 306 questionnaires. There were 32 experts on average for each technology item, and the number of experts exceeded 30 for the one-second technology items.

Table 1. List of the second-round agricultural technology foresight

《Table 1.》

2.2.2 Statistical indicator and analysis method

Both the single-factor index and the comprehensive index were used in the statistical data analysis. The main indices and the corresponding explanations in this study are listed in Table 2.

Table 2. Statistical indices and significance of the technology foresight

《Table 2》

The design of questionnaires and statistical indicators is derived from the Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy 2035 Technology Foresight Group

《3 Results》

3 Results

《3.1 The technology directions with top comprehensive importance》

3.1 The technology directions with top comprehensive importance

Based on the survey data in the second round, by combining the importance of technology itself and the importance of technology applications, we obtained the technology directions with top comprehensive importance in different subfields of agriculture, as listed in Table 3.

Table 3. Technology directions with top comprehensive importance in different subfields of agriculture.

《Table 3.》

The expert judges decided that the top 10 items ranked in Table 3 all belong to two subfields of grain and cash crops and horticulture; these cannot fully reflect the contents of different agricultural subfields due to the relatively significant differences in the different subfields. Therefore, the experts decided to perform a more objective analysis in terms of technology directions with top comprehensive importance being given to different subfields. The results are listed in Table 4. The results in the second round are mainly consistent with those in the first round, with differences observed in the fields of animal husbandry, agricultural resources and environment, and food processing and food safety.

Table 4. Top-ranked technology directions based on the comprehensive index of technology importance in different subfields.

《Table 4.》

《3.2 The important common technology directions》

3.2 The important common technology directions

Based on the survey data in the second round, by combining the technology commonality index and technology application importance index, we obtained the most important common technology directions in the different subfields of agriculture as listed in Table 5.

Table 5. Important common technology directions in the different subfields of agriculture

《Table 5.》

The experts suggested an objective analysis in terms of the top comprehensive importance of technology directions in different subfields, and the results are listed in Table 6. Apart from the results for the fields of horticulture, animal husbandry, forestry and ecology, and food processing and food safety, the results in the second round are consistent with those of the first round.

Table 6. Top-ranked technology directions in different subfields based on the comprehensive index of common technology importance.

《Table 6.》

《3.3 Important disruptive technology directions》

3.3 Important disruptive technology directions

Based on the survey data in the second round, the scores of the top 10 directions ranked with the discontinuity index are relatively low, with most being less than 60, as shown in Table 7. This indicates that the agricultural technology directions presented by experts have features of continuity, and that there are a few directions that can replace major technologies and have disruptive features.

Table 7. Sequencing of agricultural fields based on the discontinuity index.

《Table 7.》

《3.4 Constraint conditions for technology realization》

3.4 Constraint conditions for technology realization

3.4.1 Technology-leading countries

Fig. 2 shows the leading scores of different subfields for technology-leading countries based on the statistical results of the second round. Apart from its horticulture, fisheries, and agricultural resources and environment, the United States has overwhelming superiority in agriculture, followed by the European Union and Russia.

《Fig. 2. 》

Fig. 2. The leading scores of different subfields for technology-leading countries. 901: grain and cash crops; 902: horticulture; 903: forestry and ecology; 904: agricultural engineering; 905: animal husbandry; 906: fisheries; 907: animal epidemics; 908: agricultural resources and environment; 909: food processing and food safety

 

3.4.2 Research and development level

Fig. 3 shows the statistical results of the R&D level for 41 technology directions in agriculture in the second round. There is only one technology direction with a level higher than 60, seven technology directions ranging from 40 to 60, 18 technology directions ranging from 20 to 40, and 15 technology directions scoring less than 20. Among them, the 23rd technology direction, namely “new aquaculture technologies on beaches and in shallow seas,” has the highest level, and it is the highest scoring technology in all areas. The 11th technology direction, the “research and utilization of functional horticultural products,” has the lowest R&D level.

《Fig. 3. 》

Fig. 3. Technical R&D level in agriculture.

 

3.4.3 Restraining factors

“Talent, science, and technology resources” and “R&D investment” are the main factors restraining agricultural engineering science and technology (Fig. 4). Of the nine subfields, fisheries, animal epidemics, and agricultural resources and environment are more restricted by “laws, regulations, and policies” (Fig. 5). The areas of horticulture, agricultural resources and environment, and food processing and food safety are more sensitive to “standards and specifications.” Agricultural engineeringand food processing and food safety rely more on the capability of industrial bases. Grain and cash crops, animal husbandry, fisheries, animal epidemics, and agricultural resources and environment are restricted by “coordination and cooperation” to a certain extent.

《Fig. 4. 》

Fig. 4. Restraining factors of engineering science and technology development in agriculture.

 

《Fig. 5. 》

Fig. 5. Restraining factors of engineering science and technology development for different subfields in agriculture.

 

《4 General conclusions and development strategies for key technology directions》

4 General conclusions and development strategies for key technology directions

《4.1 Judgment on the general features of technology development》

4.1 Judgment on the general features of technology development

According to the above statistical results, the general features of science and technology in agricultural engineering are as follows:

(1) Technology’s core role

The core role in agriculture lies in modern biotechnology breeding and efficient breeding, the facilities and equipment of production in the planting and breeding industry, as well as in food processing. Additionally, it plays a role in the creation of new medicine that is relevant to animal health, and the effect that recycling agricultural technology has on agricultural resources and the environment.

(2) Technology’s driving role

Generally, the key aspects of agricultural technologies have a continuity feature, and there are a few new directions that have disruptive features and that can replace major technologies.

(3) The importance of economic development

The contributions of the subfields of fisheries, animal epidemics, and horticulture on economic development are relatively high in agriculture.

(4) The importance of social development

The subfields of horticulture, forestry and ecology, agricultural engineering, forestry and ecology, food processing and food safety, agricultural resources and environment, animal epidemics, and animal husbandry have made greater contributions to environmental protection, to the improvement of resource utilization, and to improving the quality of life.

(5) R&D level

There continues to be a gap between the overall R&D in agriculture in China and that of developed countries, with large differences existing in different technology directions. Apart from horticulture, fisheries, and agricultural resources and environment, the United States shows overwhelming superiority in agriculture, followed by the European Union and Russia.

(6) Restraining factors

In general, “talent, science, and technology resources” and “R&D investment” are the main restraining factors. The subfields pertaining to fisheries, animal epidemics, and agricultural resources and environment are further restricted by “laws, regulations, and policies.” The fields of horticulture, agricultural resources and environment, and food processing and food safety are more sensitive to “standards and specifications.” Agricultural engineering and food processing and food safety rely on thecapability of industrial bases. Grain and cash crops, animal husbandry, fisheries, animal epidemics, and agricultural resources and environment are restricted, to a certain extent, by “coordination and cooperation.”

《4.2 Development strategy in key technology directions》

4.2 Development strategy in key technology directions

4.2.1 Key technology directions

Based on the analysis of the survey data and after considering the relatively large differences in different subfields of agriculture, the 12 key technology directions are presented in Table 8.

Table 8. Key technology directions through 2035 in agriculture.

《Table 8.》

4.2.2 The development strategy for key technology directions

The major restraining factors in agricultural development are talent and R&D investment. Therefore, we need to further emphasize/increase the support of investment in R&D. Meanwhile, the construction of a talent team is essential to ensure the stable support of key technology directions, and to promote sustainable development for relevant technologies.

In addition, horticulture, agricultural resources and environment, and food processing and food safety are more restricted by standards and specifications, while fisheries, animal epidemics, and agricultural resources and environment are more significantly restricted by laws, regulations, and policies. The formation of relevant standards and specifications, as well as laws, regulations, and policies with more R&D input therefore need to be emphasized. The construction of a relevant national industrial base is also required, as agricultural engineering and food processing and food safety greatly depend on it. We need to further promote coordination, innovation, and collaboration in relevant areas, and strengthen international collaborations and exchanges to address coordination and cooperation restraints in the development of the fields of grain and cash crops, animal husbandry, animal epidemics, and agricultural resources and environment.