2001, Volume 3, Issue 8
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2001, Volume 3, Issue 8
Multi-objective Risk Model of Optimal River Diversion Standards During Initial Stage Construction for Hydroelectric Project
1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 China
2.Chengdu Hydroelectric Investigation and Research Institute of SPC, Chengdu, 610072 China
Next Previous
Abstract
For a hydropower project, river diversion planning directly decides the dam construction and has a bearing on the diversion standard. The relations between selection of diversion standard and investment, construction duration, risk and its losses of diversion structures should be coordinated. This paper systematically analyzes the controlling factors of choosing diversion standard during initial construction, and puts forward a quantitative analytic method of the factors. By means of multi-objective decision-making theory, a risk model of river duversuib standard during initial stage construction is established. A case study shows that the quantitative analysis and decision model ave effective, and are of great aid to the handling of the relations between the duration, investment and the risk for diversion construction.
Keywords
construction diversion ; initial stage of construction diversion ; standard of construction diversion ; multi-objective planning ; risk decision-making
References
[ 1 ] 肖焕雄.国外施工导流情况综述及几个有关问题的探讨[J].水力发电, 1985, (2) :54～58 link1
[ 2 ] 肖焕雄, 韩采燕, 唐晓阳.施工导流标准与方案优选[M ].武汉:湖北科学技术出版社, 1996
[ 3 ] BenChieYen.Riskinhydrologicdesignofengineeringproject[M ].ProceedingASCE , Vol96, Hy.1970
[ 4 ] MidgleyDC .Afloodriskanalysisforchoosinginheightofacofferdam[J].ICOLD .1967, Q .33.R .11:112～123
[ 5 ] 徐宗学.洪水风险率CSPPC模型及其应用[J].水利学报, 1988, (9) :1～9 link1
[ 6 ] 邓永录, 徐宗学.洪水风险率分析的更新过程模型与应用[J].水电能源科学, 1989, (3) :226～232 link1
[ 7 ] 肖焕雄, 韩采燕.施工导流系统超标洪水风险率模型研究[J].水利学报, 1993, (11) :76～83 link1
[ 8 ] 肖焕雄, 史精生.施工导流标准多目标风险决策[J].水利学报, 1990, (11) :66～71 link1
[ 9 ] 肖焕雄, 孙志禹.不过水围堰超标洪水风险率计算[J].水利学报, 1996, (2) :37～42 link1
[10] ReiroAA .Criteriafortheconstructiondiversionfloodsandcofferdams[M ].ICOLD .1988, Q .63.R .7:69～78
[11] ShalabyAI .Estimatingprobablemaximumfloodprob ability[J].WaterResourceBulletin, 1994, (2) :307～318
[12] 长江水利委员会, 南京水文水资源研究所.水利水电工程设计洪水计算手册[M ].北京:水利电力出版社, 1995 link1
[13] ThompsonKD , StedingerJR , HealthDC .Evaluationandpresentationofdamfailureandfloodrisks[J].J.ofWaterResourcesPlanningandManagement.1997, (4) :216～227
[14] 姜树海.水库调洪演算的随机模拟数学模型[J].水科学进展, 1993, (4) :294～300 link1
[15] 石明华, 钟登华.施工导流超标洪水风险率估计的水文模拟方法[J].水利学报, 1998, (3) :30～33 link1
[16] 陈守煜, 赵瑛琪.多目标规划模糊优化原理与模型[J].水利学报, 1990, (12) :30～33 link1
[17] 陈 .决策分析[M ].北京:科学出版社, 1989
京公网安备 11010502051620号
