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Strategic Study of CAE >> 2002, Volume 4, Issue 1

Complex Monitor-Warning System for Petroleum Economy Safety

Center of Complexity Science, Beijing Petroleum University, Beijing 102200, China

Funding project:国家科技部软科学基金资助项目(99058) Received: 2001-08-31 Available online: 2002-01-20

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Abstract

This paper analyzes macro situation of petroleum economy safety home and abroad, and ten latent factors impacting on it. Four new characters of petroleum economy safety and the advanced theory of basing safety on development are presented. With the theory of complexity science, this paper demonstrates the complexity of the system of petroleum economy safety, and the basic thought of opportunity-cybernetics is brought forward. Five integrated and compositive indexes for petroleum safety are chosen and the upper and lower limit for them are confirmed. With scientific index system and evaluation system set up here, applied software of database system and monitor-warning system for petroleum economy safety is programmed. This software can save time and cost for safety decision drastically.

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References

[ 1 ] 钱学森, 于景元, 戴汝为.一个科学新领域———开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].自然杂志, 1990, 13 (1) :3~10 link1

[ 2 ] 葛家理, 申炼.系统协调论[M ].北京:石油工业出版社, 1997 link1

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