Mathematical and Predictive Models of SARS Epidemic Disease and Mechanism of Prevention and Control

2004, Volume 6, Issue 9

Abstract

Keywords

Figures

References

Related Research

Strategic Study of CAE >> 2004, Volume 6, Issue 9

Mathematical and Predictive Models of SARS Epidemic Disease and Mechanism of Prevention and Control

Management School of Xi'an Jiaotong University , Xi'an 710049 , China

Received: 2003-10-28 Revised: 2004-02-26 Available online: 2004-09-20

HTML17 PDF 18 Collect 0

Next Previous

Abstract

First, based on the law of disease propagation and conservation of population statistics, this paper sets up mathematical models of four kinds of person for SARS, applies mathematical method to analyze the model, and it gets the physiology senses of the mathematical model and mechanism of prevention and control respectively. Second, it sets up predictive models of SARS epidemic disease using BP artificial neural network. According to the data of SARS in Beijing, it predicts and analyzes the model. The experimental results show that the method is simpler, and more effective with high prediction precision。

Keywords

SARS ; stability ; trail ; threshold theory ; artificial neural network

Figures

图1

图2

图3

References

[ 1 ] KermackWO , MckendrickAG .Contributionstothemathematicaltheoryofepidemics[J].ProcRoySocA , 1927, 115 (5) :700～721

[ 2 ] KermackWO , MckendrickAG .Contributionstothemathematicaltheoryofepidemics[J].ProcRoySocA , 1932, 138 (1) :55～83

[ 3 ] KermackWO , MckendrickAG .Contributionstothemathematicaltheoryofepidemics[J].ProcRoySocA , 1933, 141 (1) :94～122

[ 4 ] CookeKL .Stablilityanalysisforavectordiseasemode[J].RockyMountJMath1979, 9 (1) :31～42

[ 5 ] HethcoteHW .Qualititativeanalysisofcommunicable　　　　　　diseasemodels[J].MathBiosci, 1976, 28 (3) :335～356

[ 6 ] 陈兰荪, 陈　健.非线性生物动力系统[M].北京:科学出版社, 1983.111～162 link1

[ 7 ] 张运权.传染病数学模型的建立及稳定性分析[J].数理医药学杂志, 1999, 12 (2) :99～100 link1

[ 8 ] 张芷芬.微分方程定性理论[M].北京:科学出版社, 1985

[ 9 ] 张锦炎.常微分方程几何理论与分支问题[M ].北京:北京大学出版社, 1987 link1

[10] 王稳地.传染病数学模型的稳定性和分枝[D].西安:西安交通大学, 2002

[11] 丁守銮, 王洁贞, 崔希友.基于双曲正切函数HFRS发病率的BP神经网络预测模型[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2003, 23 (7) :126～131, 136 link1

[12] HuangSC , HuangYF .Boundsonthenumberofhiddenneuronsonmultilayerperceptions[J].IEEETransNeuralNetworks, 1991, 2 (1) :47～55

[13] 龚其国, 佟仁城, 吕本富, 等.北京市SARS的防疫措施、疫情的发展趋势分析[J].管理评论, 2003, 15 (4) :28～30 link1

[14] 王建锋.SARS流行预测分析[J].中国工程科学, 2003, 5 (8) :23～29 link1

Related Research