Journal Home Online First Current Issue Archive For Authors Journal Information 中文版

Strategic Study of CAE >> 2007, Volume 9, Issue 6

Post-Impact Evaluation of SARS in 2003 on Transportation in China———Loss Estimation of28Provinces in China Based on Background-Trend-Line

College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi' an   710062, China

Funding project:国家自然科学基金(40271052)和国家社会科学基金(03BJY0088)联合资助项目 Received: 2006-09-04 Revised: 2006-11-06

Next Previous

Abstract

The SARS in 2003 is a public health crisis in China.  The passenger transport witnesses serious landslide and suffers a heavy loss.  In this article,  the loss of passenger transport and its regional difference impacted by SARS are analyzed and estimated. The loss of passenger transport is nearly 1. 007 billion person- times in 2003 impacted by SARS crisis, in which the highway transportation loss is 888 million, the railway loss is 105 million, the aviation is 16. 12 million and water carriage is 19. 43 million. As a short breaking event, it starts from March in 2003 for the crisis formation, breaks out in whole from May to June, and enters the decay and comeback from July to August,  and has a compensating from November to December after the crisis. Due to the difference in transport location and epidemic situation,  the loss of passenger transport impacted by SARS in 28 provinces in China can be classified into 4 types. Guangdong, Sichuan and Hebei suffer the most and the loss is over 100 million person-times. The relativity analysis is carried out based on the loss of transportation,  cardinal number in 2003 and the number of infect person of SARS,  and a new spatial forecast model is put forward for space forecast in transport crisis. The model shows that the marginal coefficient of transportation cardinal number is 0. 788 46,  the marginal coefficient of SARS patients is 0. 075 868.

Figures

图 1

图 2

图 3

References

[ 1 ] 胡鞍钢 .SARS 危机对我国经济发展的影响分析[J] , 管理评论 ,2003 ,15(4) :3 ~ 5 link1

[ 2 ] 朱迎波 ,葛全胜 ,魏小安 ,等 . SARS 对中国入境旅游 人数影响的研究[J] .地理研究 , 2003 ,22(5) :551 ~ 559 link1

[ 3 ] 曾本祥 ,Carter R W ,Delacy T .短期事件对旅游的影 响 :以中国 SARS 危机为例[J] .桂林旅游高等专科 学校学报 ,2005 ,16(2) :30 ~ 39 link1

[ 4 ] 张广瑞 ,魏小安 ,刘德谦 .2003 年“非典”对我国旅游 业的影响[M] .北京 :社会科学出版社 ,2004

[ 5 ] 吴文化 ,程 亮 . “非典”对我国交通运输业的影响 及对策[J] .中国经贸导刊 ,2003 ,(11) :13 ~ 15 link1

[ 6 ] 孙根年 .我国境外旅游本底趋势线的建立及科学意 义[J] .地理科学 ,1998 ,18(5) :442 ~ 448 link1

[ 7 ] 孙根年 .我国 6 大境外市场旅游本底趋势线的建立 及其应用[J] .河南大学学报 ,1998 ,32(4) :23 ~ 25 link1

[ 8 ] 孙根年 .基于本底趋势线的旅游危机后影响评价研 究[J] .地理科学 ,2006 ,28(5) :234 ~ 240 link1

[ 9 ] 中国交通运输协会 . 中国交通年鉴(1998 — 2005) [Z] .北京 :中国交通年鉴社 ,2005

[10] Khan H ,et al . Asian contagion : impact on Singapore tourism [J] .Annals of Tourism Research ,2001 , 28(1) : 224 ~ 226 link1

[11] Huang Jen-Hung , Min J C . Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism : the Taiwan case [ J] . Tourism Management ,2002 ,23(2) :145 ~ 154 link1

Related Research