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Strategic Study of CAE >> 2012, Volume 14, Issue 7

Non-equidistant GM(1,1) power model and its application in engineering

1. School of Economics & International Trade, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018,China;

2. College of Economics and Management , Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016,China

Funding project:国家自然科学基金项目(71101132,71071077) Received: 2010-09-16 Available online: 2012-07-12 10:55:39.000

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Abstract

Aiming at the problem of modeling for non-equidistant sequence, the non-equidistant GM(1,1) power model was proposed. A non-linear optimization model is constructed with the objective of minimum average relative error, the constraints of relationships between parameters in order to optimize the power exponent and the background value. The results showed that the form of non equidistant GM(1,1) power model was more flexible than the traditional ones. Both non equidistant GM(1,1) model and Grey Verhulst model were the special cases of non equidistant GM(1,1) power model. Optimization of power exponent helped to improve modeling accuracy. Finally, an engineering example of non-equidistant sequence shows modeling accuracy in traditional modeling, which was significantly improved by non equidistant GM(1,1) power model.

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