中国城镇污水处理厂碳足迹驱动因素及基于电能和药剂使用效率提升的减排潜力

曲申 ,  胡宇辰 ,  魏仁柯 ,  喻可 ,  刘洲屹 ,  周琪 ,  王晨晨 ,  张璐晶

Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (7) : 106 -116.

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Engineering ›› 2025, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (7) : 106 -116. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2024.01.021
研究论文

中国城镇污水处理厂碳足迹驱动因素及基于电能和药剂使用效率提升的减排潜力

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Carbon Footprint Drivers in China’s Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants and Mitigation Opportunities through Electricity and Chemical Efficiency

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摘要

减少温室气体排放以应对气候变化已成为全球共识,城镇污水处理厂应在低碳可持续发展中发挥引领作用。然而为满足出水排放标准,其运行过程往往需消耗大量能源和化学药剂,进而产生显著碳排放。本研究系统核算了中国城镇污水处理厂的碳足迹,并分析了碳排放增长的驱动因素。结果显示,2020年中国城镇污水处理行业共排放二氧化碳当量4190万吨,其中约三分之二为能源和药剂消耗引发的间接排放,电力、碳源及除磷剂的消耗强度对碳足迹增长的影响呈持续增强趋势。通过统计推断获取了不同运行条件下各厂电力与药剂消耗强度的标杆值,由此评估了提升能源与药剂利用效率带来的减排潜力。研究表明,大量污水处理厂具有显著的减排潜力,建议采取可行的脱碳措施,包括智能化设备控制、曝气系统优化、能源回收等,以推动城镇污水处理厂运行效率与碳效率的提升。

Abstract

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to address climate change is a global consensus, and municipal wastewater treatment plants (MWWTPs) should lead the way in low-carbon sustainable development. However, achieving effluent discharge standards often requires considerable energy and chemical consumption during operation, resulting in significant carbon footprints. In this study, GHG emissions are systematically accounted for, and the driving factors of carbon footprint growth in China’s MWWTPs are explored. In 2020, a total of 41.9 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) were released by the sector, with nearly two-thirds being indirect emissions resulting from energy and material usage. The intensity of electricity, carbon source, and phosphorus removing agent consumption increasingly influence carbon footprint growth over time. Through statistical inference, benchmarks for electricity and chemical consumption intensity are established across all MWWTPs under various operational conditions, and the potential for mitigation through more efficient energy and material utilization is calculated. The results suggest that many MWWTPs offer significant opportunities for emission reduction. Consequently, empirical decarbonization measures, including intelligent device control, optimization of aeration equipment, energy recovery initiatives, and other enhancements to improve operational and carbon efficiency, are recommended.

关键词

城镇污水处理厂 / 碳足迹 / 驱动因素 / 减排潜力

Key words

Municipal wastewater treatment plants / Carbon footprint / Driving Factors / Mitigation opportunities

引用本文

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曲申,胡宇辰,魏仁柯,喻可,刘洲屹,周琪,王晨晨,张璐晶. 中国城镇污水处理厂碳足迹驱动因素及基于电能和药剂使用效率提升的减排潜力[J]. 工程(英文), 2025, 50(7): 106-116 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2024.01.021

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1 引言

在全球致力于碳中和的背景下[13],水务行业在基础设施领域的重要性日益凸显。该部门需要投入大量的资源来维持稳定运行,例如,水务系统消耗了美国1%~4%的电力[48],水资源供应链消耗了北京市4%~6%的能源[4,910]。城市水系统包括取水、处理、输配、使用、污水收集、污水处理和排放等环节,形成了闭环[11],污水处理在其中起到了关键作用[1215]。污水的来源比较广泛,和自然环境中的水体相比,处理污水时需要消耗更多的能源和药剂[11]。实际上,污水处理涉及高能耗过程[1618],仅日常生活污水的处理就要消耗全球3%的电能[19]。此外,污水处理还是全球第四大一氧化二氮(N2O)排放来源和第六大甲烷(CH4)排放来源[2021],贡献了全球9.6%的非二氧化碳(CO2)温室气体排放[2223]。在国家层面,污水处理分别占据了丹麦和部分欧洲国家废弃物行业温室气体排放总量的10%和13% [2426],因此,污水处理将在抵御全球气候变化的过程中扮演重要角色。

近几十年来,得益于经济和科技的快速发展,中国已经成为全球最大的城镇污水处理市场,并且规模仍在扩大[2728]。自2007年开始,逾6200座城镇污水处理厂在各省市投入运行,成为了全国碳足迹的重要来源。2005年至2014年间,中国城镇污水处理厂的CH4和N2O排放提升了近3倍[29],由于出水排放标准日趋严格,这一数字可能继续增加[3031],因此亟须采取措施来削弱城镇污水处理厂的温室效应[22,3233]。事实上,城镇污水处理过程具有巨大的温室气体减排潜力[3437],有望在推动碳中和的进程中发挥更加积极的作用,而不是成为温室气体的源头[3840]。掌握中国城镇污水处理厂碳排放的变化规律和减排潜力是实现这一目标的必要前提[4142]。

虽然聚焦城镇污水处理厂碳足迹的研究已经涌现,但仍存在多方面的局限。首先,大规模且详尽的温室气体排放核算一直较为困难。获取碳足迹最直接也最准确的方法为实地监测,然而温室气体排放并非多数城镇污水处理厂的日常监测指标,故需要增加监测设备,付出额外成本。监测现场的开放空间和季节性变化的水质也增加了实地监测的难度,使监测范围仅限于单个或少数污水处理厂[4344]。另一类碳排放核算方法是理论模拟[4546],又可以分为机理建模和间接估计[4748]。虽然机理建模较为精准[49],但由于处理过程所涉及生化反应的复杂性,该方法的研究尺度同样受限,难以广泛应用。间接估计能够迅速将核算的边界扩大至区域乃至国家层面,但依赖于人口等社会经济指标,估计结果的精度和准确性有待提升。

虽然部分研究克服了上述难点,对污水处理厂的碳排放展开了大规模且详尽的核算,但数据中隐含的海量信息未得到充分挖掘,尚缺乏进一步的深入研究。首先,国家层面的厂级温室气体排放的特征之一应该是高精度,即社会经济因素和自然地理条件共同作用下产生的显著的区域异质性。将城镇污水处理厂碳足迹的分布规律与这些综合因素耦合,能够使研究视角拓宽至更加宏观的尺度,从而更好地推动污水处理厂与所在城市的融合发展[50]。其次,得益于庞大的数据体量,随时间变化的城镇污水处理厂碳足迹驱动因素的识别将更具准确性和普适性,而不应仅停留在比较不同来源碳足迹大小的层面。最后,利用数据科学前沿方法探究温室气体的分布规律尚未在国家层面的厂级碳足迹核算中得到充分实现,而通过各类运行指标评估减排潜力的传统建模方法又非常耗时,导致减排相关的情景分析只能建立在主观性较强的假设之上,如前沿处理技术的渗透和扩散[5152]。事实上,评估不同运行条件下城镇污水处理厂的减排潜力意义重大[53],它将为引导行业的低碳转型,尤其是更智能化的管理措施的应用,提供更加精准的标杆作为参考。

总体来看,由于温室气体形成机理的复杂性和高昂的监测成本,掌握城镇污水处理厂碳排放的变化规律极具挑战性[5459]。本研究选取数据驱动的方法来解决已有研究的不足,包括以下步骤:首先通过将常规运行指标与已有文献中的排放因子相乘,对2007年至2020年中国各省市城镇污水处理厂的温室气体排放总量进行核算,并结合地图详细揭示行业温室气体排放的时空变化趋势;然后运用结构分解分析(SDA)识别城镇污水处理厂碳足迹随时间变化的驱动因素,并探究了处理工艺和处理规模对碳排放的影响;最后针对这些工程实践上具有改进的可行性的温室气体排放关键驱动因素,运用分位数随机森林(QRF)算法获取中国各城镇污水处理厂在原运行条件下温室气体排放的标杆值,并通过将这些标杆值与实际排放值比较得到各厂的减排潜力,由此提出与能源和药剂使用效率提升相关的减排策略建议。

2 材料和方法

图1 [6061]显示的是本研究的框架以及各章节用到的方法。在计算碳足迹时,选取的排放因子法避开了关于温室气体排放的复杂机理的讨论,然后运用SDA精准识别驱动碳足迹增长的关键因素,而不是仅比较不同来源的碳足迹的大小,最后通过QRF获取不同运行条件下这些关键影响因素的分布,以评估各厂的减排潜力。这些因素不仅对碳排放有重要作用,在工程实践上也具有被改进和提升的可行性。

2.1 温室气体排放核算

住房和城乡建设部全国城镇污水处理管理信息系统提供了各省市城镇污水处理厂全面准确的信息,包括基本特征和月度运行数据,如污水处理厂名称、所在位置、处理水量、化学需氧量(COD)和总氮(TN)的进水和出水浓度、电能消耗量以及碳源、除磷药剂和脱水药剂的投加类型与消耗量等[62]。

在此基础上,本研究核算了中国6228座城镇污水处理厂的碳足迹,使用的数据为2007年至2020年各厂的月度运行记录,以及《政府间气候变化专门委员会国家温室气体清单指南》和已有研究提供的排放因子[20,47,54,63113][附录A中的公式(S1)至公式(S14),表S1至表S9]。图1显示了温室气体排放核算的系统边界,包括:①处理过程中直接排放的CH4、N2O和CO2,②处理过程中由于能源和药剂消耗导致的间接CO2排放,以及③受纳水体中直接排放的CH4和N2O。

值得注意的是,电能是大多数城镇污水处理厂主要的用能形式[53,114],因此本研究未计入其他形式的能源消耗。此外,污泥处理与处置存在较多的数据缺失情况,或不属于厂内范围,故该环节的碳排放也不在本研究的核算范围之内。由于城镇污水在处理过程中产生的CO2排放多数为生源性,非生源性CO2排放的比例高度不确定[47,53],因此仅计入外加碳源直接转化产生的CO2排放,并按照补充的COD当量进行核算。COD和TN的去除量来自各厂的实地监测,因此相关碳足迹核算的准确性要高于基于人口等间接指标的估计[20]。

2.2 关键驱动因素的识别

SDA是解析温室气体排放影响因素的常见方法,在已有研究[115117]中应用广泛。该方法通过量化单个因素对碳足迹的影响,实现因素间重要性的排序,进而确定关键变量。以能源消耗导致的温室气体排放为例阐述SDA的原理,如公式(1)公式(2)所示,由电能消耗引起的碳足迹ECO2EC(EC:电能消耗)由处理水量QTreated、每处理单位水量的电能消耗IEC以及电网的排放因子EFPG(PG:电网)相乘得到。t0t1年间由电能消耗引起的温室气体排放变化(ΔECO2EC)最终被分解为同时期内这三项运行指标变化的作用之和(ΔQTreatedΔIECΔEFPG)。类似地,直接碳足迹和由药剂消耗导致的间接碳足迹随时间的变化也可以被分解为同时期内处理水量、水质、每处理单位水量的药剂消耗以及药剂排放因子的变化的贡献之和。

ECO2EC=QTreated×IEC×EFPG
ECO2EC=12QTreatedIECt0×EFPGt0+IECt1×EFPGt1+     12IECQTreatedt0×EFPGt1+QTreatedt1×EFPGt0+     12(EFPG)(QTreatedt1×IECt1+QTreatedt0×IECt0)

2.3 减排潜力的评估

通过限制碳足迹的关键驱动因素(如电能和药剂消耗强度),能够实现碳排放的显著削减。但是,城镇污水处理厂运行指标间的复杂联系使直接计算单个指标的变化对温室气体排放的影响较为困难。数据科学技术为解决这一难题提供了交叉创新的思路[118120],尤其是基于随机森林算法的统计推断方法(如QRF [121])可以获取不同条件下碳足迹关键驱动因素的分布。住建部全国城镇污水处理管理信息系统数据库中的2020年城镇污水处理厂月度运行记录包含了5444座污水处理厂和63 551条数据,具体包括进水和出水水质、处理水量、药剂类型、处理工艺类型、季节和所在城市等信息。以这些信息为随机森林模型的输入变量(附录A中的表S10至表S13),输出结果为电能或药剂的消耗强度等已被前述章节证实的对温室气体排放具有显著影响的变量。然后,运用QRF获取这些关键因素在原处理条件下的分布区间的中位值作为减排潜力评估的标杆值,具体思路如下。

在QRF算法中[公式(3)],F^(y|X=xk)为数据集 X中第k条运行记录xk (包括进水和出水水质、处理水量、药剂类型、处理工艺类型、季节和所在城市等)的目标变量Y(电能或药剂消耗强度)小于或等于分位数y的概率。当第j个目标变量Yj 小于或等于分位数y时,示性函数IYjy等于1,反之等于0。n代表训练样本的数量,T为随机森林算法中决策树的数量。在计算F^(y|X=xk)时,QRF将根据样本分布为每棵决策树[121]分配权重项ωtjxk,然后通过对所有决策树的预测结果取平均值来估计电能或药剂消耗强度的条件分位数。样本数量越多,被估计的分位数越接近于真实值,表明这种统计推断的方法具有一致性,能够合理反映电能、药剂消耗强度和减排潜力的分布情况。以上研究思路的关键步骤通过MATLAB软件中的quantilePredict函数实现。

F^y| X=xk=1Tt=1Tj=1nωtjxkIYjy

当运行记录对应的碳排放实际值大于以中位值为参考的标杆值时,当月该城镇污水处理厂具备碳减排潜力,具体数值等于实际值与标杆值的差值,这是因为根据QRF的推断,在与标杆值污水处理厂相同的处理条件下(如处理工艺类型以及自然和社会经济条件决定的进水水质等),标杆值污水处理厂运行时的药剂和能源使用率更高。

3 结果与讨论

3.1 中国城镇污水处理厂及碳足迹概述

系统研究城镇污水处理厂碳排放规律的重要前提是阐明行业发展和碳足迹的总体情况。根据本研究的核算结果,得益于几十年来的持续积极建设,截至2020年,全国在运行的城镇污水处理厂数量达到5444座,日处理总规模接近1.9 × 106 m3,行业层面月度温室气体排放的快速增长印证了这一突出成就(图2)。自2007年以来,全国城镇污水处理厂年度碳排放总量从830万吨上升至约4200万吨CO2-eq(二氧化碳当量),年平均增速超过了经济的增长[122]。部分聚焦于污水行业温室气体排放的已有研究提供的结果与此数据存在出入,原因是系统边界的设置不同。例如,若将前期设施建设视为碳足迹来源,得到2015年的行业总碳排放为1.29亿吨CO2-eq [52];若将后期的污泥处理与处置环节视为碳足迹来源,得到2019年的行业总碳排放为5300万吨或5830万吨CO2-eq [51,53],均呈现出不同程度的增加。同时,排除药剂消耗部分则可能导致2019年的行业总碳足迹减少至约3000万吨CO2-eq [50]。总体来看,污水行业的温室气体排放增长迅速,已经达到千万吨CO2-eq的级别。图2还反映了一个有趣的现象,即每年年初行业温室气体总排放会周期性地下降,然后又恢复至正常水平。例如,2019年1月至2月,总碳足迹下降了12.5%,3月则回升了10%。这是因为中国农历新年通常出现在1月末或2月初,大量人口从城市往农村迁徙,全国城镇人口短暂滑落至当年最低点,此时处理的污水量及其相关的碳足迹也将减少,这表明城镇污水处理厂的碳足迹与服务人口数量密切相关。

图2显示电能消耗是城镇污水处理厂最大的碳排放来源,这是由于近年来COD和TN等污染物的去除率不断提升(附录A中的表S14和图S1),导致电能的需求上升。第二大来源是处理过程中排放的N2O,这是由于N2O具有较高的全球变暖潜势,使其同期温室效应远超CH4。碳源和除磷药剂消耗导致的碳足迹突然增加并最终占据了相当大的比例,背后的原因是2015年4月国务院发布了《水污染防治行动计划》[123]。该计划是污水管理领域最具影响力的法规,促使全国各地的城镇污水处理厂开始投加更多药剂以符合日渐严格的出水排放标准,因此增加了相关的碳足迹。受纳水体中排放的温室气体相对稳定,这是因为COD和TN的出水浓度不断下降,部分抵消了不断增加的城镇污水处理量对温室气体排放的提升效应。

尽管中国城镇污水处理厂的碳足迹在十多年的时间里就迎来了快速增长,但也要承认,该行业为全球规模最大的城镇人口间接提供了清洁水资源。中国城镇污水处理厂的年度人均电能消耗和温室气体排放值分别为26.1 kW∙h和47.6 kg CO2-eq,与一些欧洲国家(23~47 kW∙h和7~161 kg CO2-eq)相比并不突出[4,124131]。虽然城镇污水处理厂在县级行政区的覆盖率已经从29.1%攀升至90.3%,标志着行业建设的基本完成(图S1),但核算结果显示,每处理单位体积的污水,中国产生的碳足迹比美国高出了60.5%,说明其中还蕴含着巨大的减排潜力,也充分反映了中国作为一个人口基数庞大、经济相对粗放的发展中国家的特征。未来,中国城镇污水处理行业的发展必然更加强调质量的提升,如低碳化转型。

虽然污泥的处理过程被排除在碳足迹核算的范围之外,但它仍是污水处理不可分割的一部分。例如,污泥厌氧消化过程现场将产生CH4和N2O排放[2]。根据已有研究[53]的估计,污泥处理与处置对总碳足迹的贡献甚至可以高达近50%。另一方面,堆肥和热解过程也为从污泥中回收能源和物料提供了机会[2]。从全球层面来看,污水行业温室气体排放的数量级通常不及能源、交通和化工等传统排放大户[132],但污水行业的减排成本更低,综合效益更突出[20]。2019年,丹麦部分污水处理厂已经实现了150%甚至180%的能量自给率[24,133134]。随着第一座以节能减排为标志的江苏省宜兴市污水资源回收工厂的投入运行,中国城镇污水处理行业有望在2060年前实现碳中和的国家战略目标进程中起到更加积极的作用[41,135]。

3.2 碳足迹的时空变化趋势

按照地理方位,中国可以被分为6个区域(附录A中的图S2)。各地区间的发展情况不同,城镇污水处理厂的温室气体排放明显呈现出聚集在大城市地区的态势(附录A中的图S3和图S4)。随着经济的增长,越来越多的地区开始接入城镇污水处理服务,从而在地图上显示出碳足迹的覆盖,而已存在城镇污水处理厂的地区的碳足迹颜色标记则更加显著。华北的京津冀地区、华东的长三角地区和中南部的珠三角地区是全国经济最发达的区域,城镇污水处理厂的碳足迹也最突出。就排放强度(处理单位体积城镇污水排放的温室气体)而言,中国北方的数值和上升趋势都要超过南方,尤其是华北和西北地区(附录A中的图S3和图S5)。碳足迹总量和强度随时间的变化规律显示,数值较大的地区也具有较高的增量(附录A中的图S3、图S6和图S7)。因此,在制定国家层面的政策时,有必要在这些重点城市实行更加严格的约束措施,以有效防止行业温室气体排放的快速增长。

高精度的时空变化趋势还表明,城镇污水处理厂的碳足迹与社会经济因素之间存在密切联系。人口稠密且经济发达的大城市地区对城镇污水处理设施的需求更大,自身建设能力也更强,导致了更多污水相关的温室气体排放(附录A中的图S2和图S8至图S12)。相比之下,偏远地区城镇污水处理厂的负荷率较低(附录A中的图S13)。此外,较发达地区的出水排放标准也更加严格(附录A中的图S14)。因此,地图上碳足迹较显著的区域与大城市地区高度重合。

另一方面,排放强度的分布与环境条件——而不是社会经济因素——的关联更紧密。华北和西北地区的传统能源禀赋更充足,煤炭和石油等化石能源在当地发电结构中的占比较高,因此提升了与电能消耗相关的排放强度(附录A中的图S15)。北方的年平均气温低于南方(附录A中的图S16),导致微生物活性降低,处理过程中需要投入更多的能源和药剂作为补充,故北方的间接排放强度高于南方。

造成排放强度升高的另一因素可能是降雨分布的不均衡(附录A中的图S17)。在降雨量更多的地区,当进水中的污染物浓度被稀释之后,出水排放标准更容易达到。值得注意的是,北方地区COD和TN的进水浓度本来就更高(附录A中的图S18和图S19),并且这些地区的污染物去除需要更多的药剂和电能,因此排放强度增加(附录A中的图S20和图S21)。相比之下,尽管中南部的珠三角地区在全国经济发展中扮演了重要角色,当地城镇污水处理厂排放了大量的温室气体,但排放强度维持在相对较低的水平,这说明在实际中,优先控制排放强度比控制碳足迹总量更有意义。借助高分辨率的时空趋势分析,管理部门可以迅速锁定温室气体排放模式异常的区域,进而为制定精准的减排策略提供背景支持。

3.3 运行指标对碳足迹增长的影响

图3所示,充分发挥住建部大数据潜力的体现之一是识别影响碳足迹增长的关键因素。根据本研究的核算结果,2007—2020年中国城镇污水处理厂累计排放了约3.2亿吨CO2-eq。值得注意的是,其中电能消耗带来的间接CO2排放占据的比例超过三分之一,紧随其后的是处理过程中直接产生的N2O排放(附录A中的图S22)。两者之和对温室气体排放总量的贡献超过65%,进一步凸显了控制能源消耗和有效管理TN的去除对于城镇污水处理厂减排的重要性。

图3(a)阐述了运用SDA得到的城镇污水处理厂温室气体排放随时间变化背后的驱动因素。以2010年、2015年和2020年为参考年份进行分析,用条形的长度表示相关变量对区间内碳足迹变化的影响。为了便于分析,运行指标被分为四大主要类型:水量、水质、药剂和电能相关。

在第一个阶段(2010—2015年),城镇污水处理厂碳足迹增长的主要贡献来自处理水量和TN的进水浓度;然而进入第二个阶段(2015—2020年)之后,它们的影响明显减少,同时碳源、除磷药剂和电能的消耗强度的贡献增加了,如图3(b)所示。对于华北地区的城镇污水处理厂,运行指标对碳足迹增长的影响呈现出了类似的趋势,其余地区城镇污水处理厂温室气体排放的SDA有关结果也相近(附录A中的图S23至图S27)。已有研究方面,一项关于欧洲城市污水行业的温室气体排放评估研究强调了电能的高效使用和电网的清洁化的重要性[136]。以上现象说明碳足迹驱动因素发生了明显转换,即从进水水质等不受控制的变量转为了电能和药剂使用效率等城镇污水处理厂运行人员能够主动提升的因素。对于城镇污水处理行业而言,这种转换是一个积极的信号,预示着各厂自身能够在行业低碳发展进程中发挥更加重要的作用。此外,降低能源和药剂消耗强度还可以节约经济成本,进一步提高城镇污水处理厂削减自身温室气体排放的积极性。未来,管理部门应优先对这些关键运行指标加以控制,以实现行业碳足迹的高效精准削减。

3.4 处理工艺和规模对排放强度的影响

处理工艺没有直接体现在城镇污水处理厂碳足迹核算的公式中,但它同样会通过影响能源和药剂的消耗来影响温室气体排放[20]。全国成功投入应用的污水处理工艺类型有30种,市场累计占比各不相同(表1)。不同工艺占比的时空变化趋势如附录A中的图S28所示。为了探究处理工艺对城镇污水处理厂碳足迹的影响,本研究计算了每一种工艺的排放强度。图4(a)显示了不同处理工艺的排放强度分布,大多数工艺的排放强度值在1.5 kg CO2-eq∙m-3以下波动,不同工艺间的差别很大,仅有少部分工艺的市场累计占比超过了5%,本研究将其称之为主流工艺。以中位值为参考,主流工艺中活性污泥(AS)工艺的排放强度最低,序批式反应器(SBR)的变体工艺也属于低碳水平,而厌氧/缺氧/好氧(A2/O)工艺和氧化沟(OD)工艺的排放强度较高。就直接排放强度而言,各工艺的数值主要分布在0.4以下,中位值在0.2 kg CO2-eq∙m-3左右(附录A中的图S29)。与总排放强度的分布类似,AS和SBR工艺的直接排放强度也处于主流工艺中的较低水平,主要原因可能是AS工艺广泛应用于处理受污染程度一般的污水,而SBR工艺能够通过灵活调整运行参数实现更加高效的污染物去除。一项关于西班牙污水处理系统的研究则显示,高效藻类塘和人工湿地等基于自然的处理工艺的碳足迹明显低于常规AS工艺[137138],进一步体现了处理工艺类型对排放强度的影响。

总体来看,中国市场主流工艺的排放强度相对较高,因此当城镇污水处理厂短期内有新建或重建的规划时,建议优先考虑选取排放强度较低的工艺,以提升城镇污水处理厂应对减缓气候变化的潜力。

随着处理规模的增加,城镇污水处理厂的排放强度总体呈现出下降趋势。根据本研究的统计结果,各厂的实际月处理水量在100 m3至1 × 108 m3之间不等。图4(b)显示,随着处理规模的扩大,虽然排放强度的中位值几乎稳定,但整体出现下降态势,尤其是处理规模在10%~60%分位数的污水处理厂。可见处理规模对城镇污水处理厂排放强度的影响比较复杂,还需要进一步探究。值得注意的是,规模排名前5%的污水处理厂处理了行业超过35%的污水,这说明了大型污水处理厂管控自身排放强度的重要性,否则碳足迹可能显著上升。

3.5 通过减少电能和药剂使用带来的减排潜力

污水处理厂运行过程中的各类操作往往基于专家经验,可能导致电能和药剂的过量使用或投加,从而增加了间接温室气体排放。处理状态的精细化管控等措施能够有效提升能源和药剂等资源的使用效率,并且实际中这些调整措施的可行性远远大于更改处理工艺、调整处理规模或水质等方案。减排潜力的大小取决于实际碳排放和标杆碳排放之间的差值,标杆碳排放由进水和出水水质、处理水量、药剂类型、处理工艺类型、季节和所在城市等与原处理条件相同情况下能源和药剂消耗强度的中位值得出(附录A中的图S30),具体通过QRF算法计算得到。

评估结果表明,2020年中国城镇污水处理厂的减排潜力为330万吨CO2-eq,占当年间接温室气体排放的比例为12.6%;除磷药剂和电能消耗强度的减少对减排潜力的贡献超过了碳源和脱水药剂(附录A中的图S31)。

在图S30(a)中,随着COD进水浓度的上升或出水浓度的下降,间接温室气体排放强度的标杆值总体呈现出上升趋势,这是由于处理过程中COD的去除量增加了,药剂和电能的消耗也随之增加。图S30(e)中电能消耗对应的排放强度标杆值随污水中COD浓度的变化规律也观察到类似趋势。在图S30(c)中,除磷药剂消耗对应的排放强度标杆值随总磷(TP)浓度的变化与上述规律更加一致,因为除磷药剂的消耗强度与TP的进水和出水浓度直接相关。在特定区间内,排放强度的标杆值可能呈现下降趋势,这可能是其他运行指标的变化对排放强度的削弱效应更强导致的。

2020年减排潜力总值和除磷药剂、电能消耗相关的分量在全国各地的空间分布分别如图S30(b)、(d)和(f)所示。大城市地区的减排潜力更突出,表明减排潜力与碳排放总量密切相关。此外,图S30(d)中的大片空白区域意味着相当部分地区的除磷药剂消耗强度可能已经低于原处理条件下的中位值,在除磷药剂的投加方面已经达到了低碳运行的要求。

削减运行过程中能源和药剂消耗的具体策略多种多样[11]。为了降低处理过程中的能源消耗,城镇污水处理厂运行人员可以从泵和曝气设备等耗电较高的装置的低能耗运行着手。例如,基于实时水量和水质监测的高能耗设备的自动或智能化控制可以实现能耗的降低。此外,设备的定期维护可以通过使设备维持最佳运行状态来提升能源利用效率。基于氧传质特性优化曝气设备的位置分布可以通过提高曝气和生化反应效率来降低能源的消耗。能源回收也是有望实现城镇污水处理厂能源自给的途径,但其依赖于投资,仍需要进一步的技术进步以突破瓶颈。利用厌氧工艺等回收CH4的主流方法取代曝气单元来分解污水中的有机物是当前降低电力消耗的有效策略。同时,由于污泥的减少,药剂也得以节省。

削减药剂消耗的策略与上述思路一致。通过在线监测设备和基于大数据模型的反馈系统精准投加药剂,能够有效适应处理水量和水质的波动。该方法减少了药剂的浪费,进而降低了间接碳排放。

4 结论

为推动中国城镇污水处理行业的气候友好性转型,本研究展开了综合性探讨,系统分析了中国城镇污水处理厂碳足迹的时空变化趋势和相关的驱动因素,以及电能和药剂使用量降低带来的减排潜力。

2020年全国城镇污水处理厂的总碳足迹上升至4190万吨CO2-eq,增速超过经济增长。城镇污水处理厂的快速发展背后离不开电力等资源的强力支持,电能的消耗也是温室气体排放的首要来源。由于出水排放规定日益严格,药剂的消耗在城镇污水处理厂碳足迹的增长过程中扮演了重要角色。

在宏观层面,温室气体排放的时空变化趋势显示它受到了多重环境和社会经济因素的影响。由于污水的产生、收集和处理量较高,出水排放标准更严格,大城市地区的碳足迹更显著。低温和降水量偏少导致的能源和药剂消耗量增加,以及高碳化的电力结构,使西北和华北地区城镇污水处理厂的排放强度更突出。

随着时间的推移,处理水量和TN的进水浓度等驱动碳排放增长的因素的重要性显著下降,而碳源、除磷药剂和电能消耗强度的贡献明显上升。碳足迹增长驱动因素的转换是厂外因素向厂内因素的转换,意味着各厂能够在低碳转型进程中发挥更加积极的作用。

本研究还发现电能和药剂消耗强度的削减有望成为削减城镇污水处理厂碳足迹的可行策略。2020年,基于能源和药剂使用效率提升的减排潜力为330万吨CO2-eq,在当年间接碳排放中占比约为12.6%。主要的减碳策略包括实时监测设备和基于大数据模型的反馈系统的应用,这些装置有助于城镇污水处理厂及时管理电能消耗等运行工况并精确控制化学药剂用量,从而提升运行过程的整体碳效率。

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