将次季节至季节预报融入农业决策支持系统——综述与研究方向

Xin-Zhong Liang

工程(英文) ›› 2026, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (9) : 84 -94.

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工程(英文) ›› 2026, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (9) : 84 -94. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.015
研究论文

将次季节至季节预报融入农业决策支持系统——综述与研究方向

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Integrating Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts into Agricultural Decision Support Systems: A Critical Review and Research Agenda

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Abstract

Agricultural decision support systems (ADSSs) are designed to translate complex data into actionable insights for farm management. However, a significant gap persists between the growing skill of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts and their operational use in supporting tactical agricultural decisions. This review critically examines the current state and future trajectory of ADSSs, with a focus on bridging this gap. The analysis reveals that although modern ADSSs support a range of operational and strategic applications using historical data, predictive models, and scenario-based simulations, they largely fail to integrate operational S2S forecasts, leaving farmers vulnerable to near-term climate anomalies. Advances and challenges are synthesized across three interconnected fronts: the methodological pipeline for integrating S2S forecasts, including downscaling, bias correction, and uncertainty quantification; the imperative of participatory design and coproduction to enhance usability and adoption; and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence and machine learning under the emerging Agriculture 5.0 paradigm. The next generation of ADSSs must evolve into interactive, uncertainty-aware platforms that facilitate exploratory decision-making through bidirectional feedback loops. By synthesizing these insights, this review proposes a conceptual framework and research agenda for developing ADSSs capable of truly supporting climate-resilient agriculture.

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Agricultural decision support systems / Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts / Climate-resilient agriculture / Artificial intelligence and machine learning / Participatory design and coproduction

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Xin-Zhong Liang. 将次季节至季节预报融入农业决策支持系统——综述与研究方向[J]. 工程(英文), 2026, 64(9): 84-94 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2026.05.015

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