河口三角洲系统海平面上升行为甄别研究—

工程（英文） ›› 2018, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (1) : 156 -163. DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2018.02.002

研究论文

河口三角洲系统海平面上升行为甄别研究——以上海海岸为例

程和琴 ^a^,^* ,
陈吉余 ^a ,
陈祖军 ^b ,
阮仁良 ^c ,
徐贵泉 ^b ,
曾刚 ^d ,
朱建荣 ^a ,
戴志军 ^a ,
陈小勇 ^e ,
顾圣华 ^f ,
张先林 ^g ,
王寒梅 ^h

作者信息 +

Mapping Sea Level Rise Behavior in an Estuarine Delta System: A Case Study along the Shanghai Coast

H.Q. Cheng ^a^,^* ,
J.Y. Chen ^a ,
Z.J. Chen ^b ,
R.L. Ruan ^c ,
G.Q. Xu ^b ,
G. Zeng ^d ,
J.R. Zhu ^a ,
Z.J. Dai ^a ,
X.Y. Chen ^e ,
S.H. Gu ^f ,
X.L. Zhang ^g ,
H.M. Wang ^h

Author information +

文章历史 +

Received	Accepted	Published
2017-07-01	2017-12-26
Issue Date
2018-03-06

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摘要

气候变化导致海平面上升是河口三角洲城市发展面临的主要威胁，位处长江河口三角洲的特大型城市上海面临同样的问题。就气候变化适应性决策者而言，其困难在于海平面上升的原因、幅度和出现时间的不确定性。本文在年代际尺度上就海平面上升原因、幅度的甄别做了尝试。即在分析上海沿岸11 个潮位站1921 年以来潮位记录及其相邻水域水下地形基础上，发现该地区海平面上升除了众所周知的理论海平面上升、构造沉降和城市地面沉降外，还有三种新的、人为地形改变所致的海平面上升行为。其一为围垦和深水航道整治导致的局域海平面上升；其二是流域沉积物源减少引起河槽冲刷导致的局域海平面下降；其三为局域深度基准面抬升。上海沿岸2011—2030年间海平面上升幅度预测值为10~16 cm。这一海平面上升行为的甄别结果为当地决策者制定河口三角洲系统适应气候变化和海平面上升的工程和非工程措施提供科学依据，以期减少日益加剧的洪灾损失。此项工作未来充满挑战。

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) is a major projected threat of climate change that is expected to affect developing coastal cities located in estuarine delta regions. Shanghai is one such city, being located in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). It is difficult, however, for decision-makers to implement adaptation due to the uncertain causes, magnitudes, and timings of SLR behaviors. This paper attempts to map the causes and magnitudes of SLR behaviors on a decadal scale. We analyze the tidal level records from 11 tidal gauge stations and the corresponding bathymetry measurements around these stations since 1921. We identify three new SLR behaviors along the Shanghai coast due to anthropogenic geomorphologic changes (AGCs), besides the well-known eustatic sea level rise (ESLR), tectonic subsidence (TS), and urban land subsidence (ULS). The first new behavior is regional sea level rise (RSLR), which occurs as a result of land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. The second is regional sea level fall (RSLF), which occurs because the channel bed is eroded due to sediment supply decline in the river catchment. The last SLR behavior is local tidal datum rise (LTDR). Thus, we project that the magnitude of SLR for the Shanghai coast ranges from 10 cm to 16 cm from 2011 to 2030. Clarifying SLR behaviors is important to aid local decisionmakers in planning structural and non-structural measures to combat escalating flood damage costs in an estuarine delta system; this field is full of future challenges.

关键词

海平面上升行为 / 人为地形变化 / 局域潮汐基准面 / 洪水管理 / 适应性

Key words

Sea level rise behavior / Anthropogenic geomorphologic change / Local tidal datum / Flood management / Adaptation

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引用格式 ▾

程和琴, 陈吉余, 陈祖军, 阮仁良, 徐贵泉, 曾刚, 朱建荣, 戴志军, 陈小勇, 顾圣华, 张先林, 王寒梅河口三角洲系统海平面上升行为甄别研究——以上海海岸为例[J]. 工程（英文）, 2018, 4(1): 156-163 DOI:10.1016/j.eng.2018.02.002

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基金资助

本研究获得中国国家自然科学基金委员会（NSFC）-荷兰科学研究机构（NWO）-英国科学与工程研究委员会（RCUK）（51761135023）、上海科学技术委员会（10DZ1210600）、国家海洋公益性行业科研专项经费（201005019-09）、国家自然科学基金（41476075）、中国地质调查局（DD20160246）的资助。()